I love this time of year, other than it means college football season is almost over. I've been getting ready for our annual Christmas trip to Colorado and doing some extra praying that I don't wind up face planting a tree. I've been reading stories and message boards about how my favorite team was screwed in the bowl selection process. (again) And some interesting reading on how the Big 10 is planning on expansion and guess who is one of the prime candidates for said expansion?
All these will make some nice candidates for topics during the cold, dreary days of January. For now, I wanted to take a quick look at the conference bowl match ups and give myself an opportunity to humiliate myself one last time with a few predictions. I actually had a pretty good year straight up as I went 88-30. The rub was against the spread where I wound up 57-57. So really, if I had bet 50 toothpicks on every game I'd predicted, I'd have the same number I started with. A lot of work to wind up exactly where you were when you started don't you think?
Anyway, let's start out with my favorite team. Missouri travels to Houston to face the Naval Academy in the Texas Bowl. I'm not going into the fact that the Tigers wound up in the 8th bowl to pick. As I said before, that's a topic to talk about in January or even February. The Tigers have had problems stopping the pass this season but have been one of the best in the Big XII at stopping the run. Navy has a very good running attack but very little success throwing the ball. I think this is a good matchup for the Tigers and the team is young enough that I don't think they'll go into the game flat because they think it's beneath them. The Tigers open as a 6 point favorite and I happen to think this is a sucker bet. I'm going to go with Mizzou to win and cover easily, 38-17. Then we can move on to more interesting things such as what appears to be a top 15 recruiting class or a possible move to another conference.
Moving on to the Rolls Royce of the Big XII bowl package would always be a glorious December trip to sunny Shreveport, Louisiana where Texas A&M takes on the Georgia Bulldogs in the Independence Bowl. Few places offer what the city of Shreveport does as you get a chance to share a shitty room at the local Super 8 with some of the cities finest cockroaches at only 200 dollars a night. Missouri made 2 trips to the bowl game and I think that Mike Alden might have been fired had they wound up in this bowl game again. The 'Dawgs open as a 7 point favorite in this one. I believe this game is a huge letdown for them following multiple trips to the BCS locations over the past few years. I think that they'll have enough to win, although an upset wouldn't surprise me. I'll go with Georgia to win, but fail to cover. Dawgs 24-21.
In San Diego the Holiday Bowl pits 2 of the countries better defenses, as well as 2 head coaches most likely to be charged for attacking a referee as Bo Pelini and corn nation take on Mike Stoops and the Arizona Wildcats. This game could set college football back 50 years. The Wildcats open as a 1 point favorite. I have no intention of watching this but I'll go with Arizona to win and cover, say about 5-3. A late safety should put them over the top. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
In El Paso, Jim Harbaugh brings the Stanford Cardinal (they are still the cardinal aren't they) to play the Oklahoma Sooners and Big Game Bob Stoops. Bob has had some problems in bowl games the past few years as they've disappointed in BCS appearances following successful regular seasons. The Sooners finished the year a disappointing 7-5 after opening the season as a top 5 pick. The Sooners open as an 8 point favorite in this one, but I'm going to go with Stanford in the upset, 31-30, as OU spends much of the game trying to figure out why a giant tree is dancing around the Stanford sideline.
We move on to the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona. This is the bowl game that logically Missouri should have been selected for. However, they decided that picking a 6-6 Iowa State team that MU defeated by double digits would be a better selection to play a 6-6 Minnesota team. The NFL network is a perfect place for this game since very little of the country will be watching it anyway. Minnesota opens as a 2 1/2 point favorite. I'm going with the Cyclones in an upset 23-17.
In Dallas, the first Cotton Bowl to be played in Jerry World will pit Oklahoma State against Ol' Miss. Okie Lite finished the season in disappointing fashion when they were bombed by Oklahoma 27-0 in a game that not only offered bragging rights but a possible trip to Phoenix as the conference representative in the Fiesta Bowl. Ol' Miss opens as a 3 point favorite but I think this won't be that close. I'm taking the Rebels 31-24.
In San Antonio the Alamo Bowl matchup will be Texas Tech against another mediocre Big 10 team in Michigan State. Tech hasn't had great luck in bowl games but I think the Spartains are just what they need for what ails them. The odds makers have made Tech an 8 point favorite in this one but I'm predicting a blow out. I'll take the Red Raiders 38-14 as Mike Leach makes his first statement about next years team down in Lubbock.
Finally in the game for all the marbles, Big XII champion Texas takes on the SEC champ Alabama. In the title game against Nebraska, the Longhorns showed that they could play defense when their O wouldn't carry the day. The Crimson Tide may well be better defensively than the huskers and I'm fairly confident their offense is much better. The Tide opens up as a 5 point favorite. I think this is a pretty good line. I'm going to pull this one out my ass and predict the winner and your 2009 national champion will be 'Bama, 27-21.
I'm heading out this weekend for a well deserved rest in Colorado. I'll see you guys after the first of the year and we'll have some things to talk about including bowl results, possible implications if Missouri would jump to the Big 10 and a possible interview that I'm trying to put together with former kansas coach Mark Mangino. Have a great holiday folks and drive safely!
Merlin
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