The last time we got together we talked about things remaining the same in the south. As far as last year goes, I sort of expect the end result to be what it's been for the last 2 years. Missouri and Nebraska fighting it out for the top spot and everyone else sort of meandering around hoping for a 3rd place finish and a post season trip to Shreveport. It really hasn't been that long since Colorado was a perennial contender for the CCG whipping boy and kansas finished 2nd as recently as 2007. However, since that time Dan Hawkins has taken the Buffalos downhill faster than anyone could imagine and the beaks are in a state of flux thanks to last years little 7 game losing streak.
Starting out things in Boulder, the Buffs reeled in the 66th ranked class in the nation and 12th in the Big XII. The Buff's only lost 2 starters on offense and 3 on defense but let's face it, when you wound up 3-9 and 2-6 in conference, are you really that excited to get all those starters back? And it's not like they were ever so close to winning. Those 9 losses include an opening season loss to 3-9 Colorado State and a 54-38 thrashing by 5-7 Toledo. When your season highlight was starting the beaks 7 game losing streak, you aren't to be blamed if you're not terribly optimistic. I've said for over a year that Coach Dan Hawkins is a dead man walking and I think this may finally be the year that he either produces or is fired. At least I hope so. I think he's a fairly nice guy that's in over his head and I've really never had a problem with the Colorado fans. They don't do a lot of trash talking and they always offer you a hit off their bong if you travel to Boulder for a game. Sadly, I think the Buffs are just treading water and hoping for an invitation to the Pac 10.
For a time it appeared that Bill Snyder had found another soul to sell and that the Wildcats were going to make a run at a north division title. However, running into Missouri and Nebraska their last 2 games pretty much finished that hope off. The 'Cats lose 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense which isn't terrible, but those were clearly the 9 best players that they had. They go into this season with all sorts of questions, such as who will play quarterback and who might catch the ball should they find someone that can throw it. They finished ahead of only Colorado as far as recruiting goes so no immediate help coming in there. At some point they will have to find someone willing to coach the fiasco that their football program has become. In the meantime they probably better pony up for Frank Martin so they can remain relevant in something.
Next stop is in Ames where head coach Paul Rhodes Cyclones went 7-6, (3-5 in conference) and made their first bowl appearance since a 2005 appearance in the Texas Bowl. The 'Clones highlight of the season was a 9-7 barnburner of a win in Lincoln against the equally offensive challenged Cornhuskers. They only lose 3 starters on the offensive side of the ball but lose 6 from what was a pretty good defense. Also unfortunately for them they didn't really bring in much immediate help with their 60th ranked recruiting class. (10th in the conference) I've always liked the Iowa State fans and feel badly that they've had little to cheer about the last few years. Hopefully they can keep Rhodes around, especially since he's an alumni, but facts are facts. Their facilities are among the worst in the conference and Jack Trice Stadium with it's seating capacity of 55,000 isn't going to impress a lot of recruits.
Of course, some programs would consider 55,000 to be a step up. We talk about one of them with our next stop in lawrence, kansas, the home of the fighting beakers. In an effort to appease the fan base after the mid season collapse and revelations about former coach Mark Mangino, they brought in a hoped for up and comer when they hired Turner Gill from the University of Buffalo. Now some teams would have been put off by the fact that he managed only a 5-7 record in the MAC last year and I really think he was about their 3rd choice. But he brings some success as a former Husker during their glory years and he could be brought in fairly cheaply. This is a really important hire for athletic director Lew "Yoda" Perkins. They already have had to put their proposed stadium expansion on hold and a few of their fan base have started to realize that everywhere sweet Lew has been wound up on probation after he left. Seriously, would you buy a used car from this man?
So now we head to what is the north's version of the Big 2. Nebraska and Missouri are outspending the rest of the division when it comes to facilities and salaries for coaches. Nebraska has had this commitment since, well, forever and Missouri is starting to reap the benefits after 20 years of futility and inept leadership. They've finished 1-2 the last 2 seasons in the north, their recruiting classes ranked 21st and 22nd nationally and 4th and 5th in the conference. They were also 2 of the younger teams in college football. The hicks lose only one offensive starter from last year which may or may not be a good thing. They appear to be making a push to go back to old time husker power football. They do lose 5 starters from a really good defense, including all world defensive tackle Ndamakong Suh. I would expect their defense to take something of a step back next year, but it's not unreasonable to expect their offense to be better.
In Columbia, the opposite is true. While the Tigers offense took something of a step back from the last 2 seasons, it was still one of the better scoring teams in the conference. The Tigers lose 3 players each from the offense and defense, but Danario Alexander will be very tough to lose. He was sophomore starter Blaine Gabberts favorite target. Likewise the defense will suffer with the loss of linebacker Sean Weatherspoon who was the emotional leader of the team. The Tigers however have been stockpiling good receivers for a while now and it should be someone's time to step up. Whether that comes from increased production from Wes Kemp and Jerrell Jackson or someone new steps in such as Rolandis Woodland, TJ Moe or Michael Egnew. They also brought in a bumper crop of receivers this year including Marcus Lucas, Jimmy Hunt and Bud Sassar. Someone will have to step up but the candidates are plentiful and talented. On the defensive side of the ball, Dominique Hamilton emerged as a very good defensive tackle as a sophomore. He'll need some help here from the likes of Terrell Resonno, Jimmy Burge and Marvin Foster to replace the graduated Jaron Baston. If I was making an early guess it would be Foster. The linebacking corps is deep and experienced even with the loss of Weatherspoon. The problem the Tigers will face is improving the defense against the pass where they were one of the worst in the nation.
So from what I see we've essentially got a 2 horse race next season. The talent disparity is simply too great. I've also seen nothing from the rest of the coaches in the division that would make me believe anyone has the next Knute Rockne running the show. (sorry beakers) So how do I break down the finish? Of the bottom 4 I'm going to go with Iowa State 3rd, Kansas State 4th, only because of Bill Snyder, kansas 5th and that's only because Colorado is also in the division. The only question is who returns more talent and can get it performing quickly. With that one I'm going to stick with my usual homer position and take Missouri. The offense will improve with Gabbert having another year under his belt and hopefully realizing that he doesn't have to lock in on one guy. I think/hope the defense will improve and Nebraska seemingly returning to more of a running team will play into Missouri's strength defensively. And as I said, I think there is an excellent chance that the winner of the division actually wins the conference championship game.
Enjoy the rest of your week and I'll see you this weekend!
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