Some questions heading into spring ball. The offense......

We're a little over 2 weeks away from the start of spring football.  That means we now have less than two months with no college football to follow.  Now I happen to consider that about 6 weeks too many, but then I'm something of a fanatic.  The Tigers return 35 of the 44 players in the 2 deep from last year so you wouldn't expect there to be a lot of questions, but early departures by quarterback Blaine Gabbert and defensive end Aldon Smith created a couple of unexpected holes.  I'm going to talk about some of the questions on the offense today, which has to start with, who's going to be the guy pulling the trigger for the offense now that BG has left for the NFL?  The smart money says it's going to come down to 2 guys that were freshmen last year, James Franklin and Blaine's younger brother Tyler.  Both were highly regarded prospects coming out of high school and appear to be capable of taking over for Blaine, who in my opinion was under-appreciated by Tiger nation.  It can't have been easy following Chase Daniel who's always going to be considered a legend in Columbia following that magnificent 2007 season.  But let's remember that CD had guys like Maclin, Franklin, Coffman, Rucker and Saunders to throw to.  In Blaine's first season when he had Danario Alexander still around he had numbers that were very similar to Chases' sophomore season.  He just lacked the game breaker last year, other than TJ Moe's last minute catch against San Diego State and Jerrell Jackson's catch against OU in the 4th quarter that put the Tigers back in the lead to stay.  If I was handicapping this, I'd have to go with Franklin, but guys that watch the team daily say don't go to sleep on Tyler Gabbert.  If I was a betting man, which I'm not I'm guessing the loser of the battle could well transfer following the season, along with 3rd stringer Ashton Glaser who appears to be the odd man out.  Incoming freshman Corbin Berkstressor had a great senior season but I expect to see him red shirt this year.

The one loss that was expected was center Tim Barnes graduating.  For the past 2 years Travis Ruth was expected to be the successor, but it seems most everyone is talking about a lightly regarded kid from Lebanon, Missouri as most likely to be the starter this fall.  Justin came from my neck of the woods and may well be the first kid to start on a division 1 program.  He was also scorned as a 5.4 two star player who many felt was offered simply to fill up slots.  However, he's been praised by the staff since the day he got on campus due to his work ethic and understanding of the game.  He's yet another exhibit as to why we shouldn't take Rivals or Scouts rankings too seriously.  Actually, after guys like Alexander, Weatherspoon and Hood we should have had some idea that the coaches had some idea what they were doing, but then we wouldn't be Missouri fans.  If it teaches us anything though, we should realize that kids that are really good wrestlers in high school understand the concept of leverage and be able to transfer that to football.  Justin was a two time state champion in the heavyweight division.

At running back, the Tigers went with mostly a three headed, but sometimes four headed monster during the season.  All of the backs experienced some success, but the fact is, it's hard to recruit backs to the system unless you have someone that breaks out as a feature guy.  I know the Tigers realize this, especially with the difficulties they've had recruiting the big name kids, even those that are residents of the Show Me State.  All four of the returners are similar in that they're smallish guys with bursts of speed.  All are capable of breaking the big play any time they touch the ball, but questionable in their ability to break tackles and get the tough yards.  If indeed they attempt to get more touches to one guy, then I'm going to guess, and it's just a guess that the top two getting their chance to shine would be junior Kendial Lawrence and sophomore Henry Josey.  Both were highly regarded kids out of Texas and show more speed than De'Vion Moore, who was usually the starter last year, and Marcus Murphy, who spent the year as the deep man on kickoffs.  And don't rule out red shirt freshman Greg White as a potential short yardage guy.

One spot that you'd think with no questions would be at wide receiver with all three starters returning, but I'm convinced the team has to find a deep threat.  Last year the Tigers brought in three highly regarded recruits, although two of them were red shirted.  Marcus Lucas shed his shirt, but only made three catches last year, although he gained PT as the season went along.  I see him in sort of the D. Alexander mold; a tall receiver with good hands and deceptive speed that's capable of turning a short pass over the middle into a long gain.  Hopefully he can be nearly as effective and healthy.  For sheer speed, give me a look at the two kids that red shirted, Jimmie Hunt and Bud Sasser.  I expect both to earn plenty of playing time this year.  You also have to remember the kid everyone from the 'Lou was raving about a couple of years ago, Rolandis Woodland.  There's no doubt the kid is a burner.  Now he has to show he knows the playbook and can bring in the critical catch when it's prime time. I believe TJ Moe is a lock to hold on to his spot, but if I'm Jerrell Jackson or Wes Kemp, I'm making sure to get in some extra work this off season.  There are a lot of young lions looking to take your spot.
That's all for today.  I imagine we'll talk about how the basketball team fared this week next time, but when I get back to football, we'll discuss the defense.  Hope your weeks going well for you.

 

Week 3. Things get a bit tougher this week.

Well, week 2 has come and gone and if you're like me, you're more than a little conflicted about what is real and what is a mirage.  Is kansas the team that lost at home in their opener to a mediocre FCS team or the one that beat a top 15 team last Saturday?  How about Oklahoma?  Has Missouri found a true breakaway back and could K State be for real?  I have no idea, but I think we'll start to get a few answers this week as things toughen up for some teams, including 2 conference match ups that could help clear some things up as far as pecking order.
I'll be making my first trip to Columbia to watch my Tigers take on San Diego State at 6:00 pm on Saturday night.  The weather sounds beautiful and it should be around 70 degrees at kickoff with temps dropping to the low 60's by the end of the game.  The Aztecs will step on Faurot Field with a 2-0 record, with wins over Nichols State and New Mexico State who sport a combined record of 0-3.  The Aztecs are running the ball well, averaging over 6 yards a carry and throwing it also.  However, the fact remains that both games were played against teams that were probably not much better than McNeese State was last week.  However, it's a decent test for week 3, although once again we will only be able to take much away from it if Mizzou loses or even if it's close in the 4th quarter.  Think Bowling Green from last year.  I'm also looking forward to watching the Tigers newest running back, Henry Josey running against a defensive team that isn't outweighed by 60 lbs a man.

So on with my takes on this weeks matchups.  Currently I'm sitting with a gaudy (for me) 22-2 record straight up but only 10-9 against the spread, so if you read this, don't use it as any sort of a guide on making your bets.  God knows I wouldn't.
Starting out in Columbia, the Tigers open as a 16 point favorite against the Aztecs.  SD State has been picked to finish as high as 4th in the improving Mountain West Conference, but make no mistake, this is no Utah, BYU or TCU.  It's a nice little team that's improving but still has a way to go before they return to the glory days when Don Coryell was coaching there.  They should provide a decent test for the first half before Mizzou pulls away in the 2nd.  I'm taking Missouri in a game that will be closer for a while than the 41-10 final would suggest.

Speaking of the Mountain West, Baylor travels north to Fort Worth to take on the #4 ranked Horned Frogs of TCU.   They likewise open 2-0 with wins over Oregon State and Tennessee Tech.  This is the Frogs only test against a BCS opponent during the regular season and I expect them to try to make the most of it, in an effort to crack a BCS bowl in January.  TCU opens as a 21 point favorite in this one.  I think they cover and win 38-13.
Colorado fell back to earth without a parachute last week as they were demolished 52-7 last week in Berkeley in the Hemp bowl.  This week they'll play host to the University of Hawaii Warriors in the munchies bowl.  Roasted pig for everyone.  The Buffs open as a 10 point favorite here and I really don't understand why.  They opened the season with a 13 point loss to USC.  Now those aren't the Trojans from the early 90's, but still an impressive squad.  Last week the Flying Kalua's traveled to West point and outlasted the Cadets 31-28.  This is a must game for Dan Hawkins if he's to maintain any hope of retaining his job.  I don't believe Colorado can cover a 10 point spread, but I'm going to go all out here and say they lose straight up.  I'm taking Hawaii to pull the upset, 31-28.

The conference season opens with all the excitement of a 4th of July picnic in West Platte, Nebraska at Arrowhead as the K State Wildcats lock horns with the Iowa State Cyclones.  All this electric match up needs is a tractor pull at halftime.  The Wildcats open this one as a 5 point favorite.  I really like the Clones coach but it's hard to bet against Mr. Burns.  I believe the K Staters pull away with this in the 2nd half as their rushing attack takes it's toll on an inexperienced ISU defense.  I'd take the 'Cats to cover and win, 24-10.
Friday night, the enigma that is kansas football travels to Hattiesburg to take on the Eagles of Southern Mississippi, a Conference USA opponent.  Beak nation has the worst loss of the conference when they dropped their opener to North Dakota State, but arguably the best win after edging Georgia Tech last weekend.  Southern Miss opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite in this one, I suppose mostly due to the fact that it's a home game for them.  I'd take ku if this were being played in larry, but it's their first game on the road, in an atmosphere that will be fairly hostile, so I'm going to take the Eagles to win and cover, 27-21. 

Hick nation may already have their combines headed west as the Huskers travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies Saturday.  There was quite a bit of early love for UDub and they've played a tough schedule.  It's also a 12:30 local start which is in their favor, and I don't believe that Nebraska is a top 10 team.  That being said, I think they win on their first trip away from home.  The nubs open as a 4 1/2 point favorite and I believe the line is very close.  I'm going with them to just come up short of covering in a 21-17 nail biter.
OU plays host to the Air Force Academy this weekend in what should be an interesting game.  The Falcons come into Norman at 2-0, including an impressive 35-14 win at home last week over formerly ranked BYU.  The Sooners opened as an 18 1/2 point favorite which at first seemed high to me.  However, this is the kind of game Stoops is able to get his team ready for as evidenced by their dismantling of Florida State last week.  I'm going to take OU to win and cover 31-10.  Meanwhile, up the road in Stillwater the Cowboys host cross state rival Tulsa.    Okie Light opens as only a 7 point favorite here but I'm looking for them to easily cover that and win 38-17.

Down in College Station, the Aggies continue their version of the cupcake diet as they host lightly regarded Florida International, who lost their season opener 19-14 to Rutgers, who appear to be returning to their customary position of Big East whipping boys.  The fun and games portion of A&M's schedule ends after this game so I expect Sherman to let the dogs keep running into the 4th quarter.  The Aggies open as a 27 1/2 point favorite.  I'm looking for them to cover and win 48-17.

But the game of the week is being played in Lubbock as the 2-0 Red Raiders host the 2-0 Texas Longhorns is the other conference opener.  The Whorns haven't exactly struggled this year, but the offense has definitely taken a step back.  Today's Tech team may not have the offensive firepower they showed while Mike Leach was coaching them, but they aren't exactly slouches either.  And you had to know that the defense was going to improve when Tommy Tuberville was given the head coaching job.  I firmly believe that this is just a bridge job for TT until another SEC job opens up.  He's already been chastised by Dan Beebe and the Big XII offices for stating his opinion that the conference wouldn't survive with the current inequities.  I, and frankly most people agree with him.  Texas opens this game as a 3 point favorite.  The Red Raiders have beaten Texas before at home, and I believe they're going to do it again on Saturday.  I'm going with Tech to win straight up, 28-24.
I hope your team has good luck this weekend.  It sounds like it's going to be a gorgeous afternoon for tailgating in Columbia, and this morning (Friday) I'm taking a nice brisket out to smoke for my opening week. Don't forget that Sunday is national talk like a pirate day.  Try to do your best Mike Leach imitation and I'll see you next week.          
 

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Week 2 recap. Going far too well for me.

I'm one of these guys that isn't just willing to take success at face value.  I always think that if something looks too good to be true, then it probably is.  That's why after week 2, I'm really nervous about sitting here with a sparkling 22-2 record straight up.  Oh, I know that I'm barely above water when it comes to the point spread, but if I can just wind up even there, I consider it to be a success.  But before I get too full of myself, it's just week 2 and frankly, there haven't been too many opportunities for me to screw up yet.  Where I could really get in trouble is if I were making predictions for the ACC.  If college football isn't done with expansion yet, and I don't believe that it is, if I'm the AD at any Big XII north school, I'm campaigning for membership to their conference right now.  Anyway, for the week I was once again 11-1 straight up and a much more respectable 6-4 vs the spread.  For the year, I'm 22-2 and 10-9.

In Columbia, we may have seen some sign of a new legend being born as freshman Henry Josey rushed for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 7 carries.  After the problems in week 1, it was a breath of fresh air.  You have to remember it was against FCS competition and he's not likely to see the gaping holes he did this week, but speed is speed and this kid has it.  Hoping to see him get the ball in space against better competition.  There was no line in this game so I didn't have an opportunity to pad my statistics.  However, the 50-6 final was only 5 points off from my prediction of 55-6.   Next up will be a 6:00 pm matchup against San Diego State which also will come in a 2-0.  It will also mark my first trip to Columbia since the spring game.
In Waco, Robert Griffin threw for 297 yards as Baylor rolled over Buffalo 34-6.  My prediction was 37-17.  The Bears move to 2-0, but things get much tougher next week as they travel to Forth Worth to face top 5 TCU.

Speaking of getting tougher, it got a lot tougher for Dan Hawkins and the Colorado Buffalos Saturday as they traveled to Berkeley to meet up with future Pac 12 rival Cal.  The spread was 8 1/2 points and I didn't expect it to be that close as I had the Bears winning 37-17.  The final was Cal 52, Colorado 7.  Let's wratchet up the death watch for Coach Hawkins again.
Likewise for Iowa State, it was much different in week 2.  The Cyclones traveled cross state to meet Top 10 Iowa as a 13 1/2 point underdog.  This one was over by half time as the Hawkeyes jumped out to a 28-0 lead.  I'd predicted a 38-21 win for Iowa and the final was 35-7.  Next week ISU opens conference play a bit early as they meet K State at Arrowhead Stadium in Farmageddon 2.0.
I've had 2 losses straight up so far this year and both have involved my best buddies to the west, the kansas jayhawks.  After losing to FCS opponent North Dakota State ( who lost yesterday to another kansas favorite, Northern Iowa) there was just no chance they could compete with # 15 Georgia Tech, right?  Well, I along with most of America were wrong as the beaks held on for a 28-25 win over the Rambling Wreck.  I'd predicted a 41-14 Tech win in this one.  Next week the beaks travel to Hattiesburg to face 1-1 Southern Mississippi.  I have no idea what the line will be for this one or who will win.  We'll play it by ear and see what my gut tells me on Thursday.

In the other game this week that had no line, Terry Allen brought Missouri State to Manhattan to face Bill Snyder and the K State Wildcats.  It wasn't much of a contest, but a bit more interesting than I expected as I predicted a 48-13 Wildcat win.  The final was 48-24 K State.  As I mentioned earlier, the Cats play Iowa State next week at Arrowhead in one of the two conference games that will be played. 
In Lincoln, the Huskers opened as a 28 1/2 point favorite against the Idaho Vandals.  I stated that I wasn't convinced of the effectiveness of the hicks offense and nothing happened yesterday to change my mind.  I had corn nation winning but failing to cover 38-14.  The final score was 38-17 but this included 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns and scores off 2 long TD runs.  For the day Idaho threw 5 interceptions, while Nebraska had one picked off and only 111 yards passing.  Nebraska also had 8 fumbles, losing 3 of them.  No doubt they have some home run threats on the ground, but they're going to have to have some semblance of a passing attack once they enter Big XII play.  Next up is a trip to Washington, which doesn't seem nearly as imposing as it did before the season started.

Probably the most impressive win of the day came in Norman where the Sooners entered as 9 point favorites against Florida State, yet another ACC pretender.  I was fooled by OU's mediocre performance in week one and while I predicted the Sooners to win, I didn't expect them to cover.  I had OU in a close one, 28-21, but they rolled to an impressive 47-17 win as quarterback Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and 4 touchdown against what was considered to be a stout FSU defense.  Next week OU plays host to the Air Force Academy in one of the better schedules in Division 1 this year.
Another game I missed on the spread was played in Stillwater where the Cowboys rallied in the 2nd half to overtake Troy, 41-38.  I'd predicted an Okie Lite romp 35-14 to cover the 11 1/2 spread and in hindsight I should have known better.  Troy had beaten OSU as recently as 2007 and aren't intimidated by trips to BCS home fields.  Next week the Cowboys host Tulsa so frankly, we're still not going to know much about them for a few more weeks.

My 3rd failure in the south happened in Austin where Texas failed to cover a 29 point spread again former Missouri OC Dave Christensen and his Wyoming Cowboys by winning 34-7.  I had the Horns winning 41-10.  They continue to struggle somewhat in the post Colt McCoy era but will continue to win.  As I've said earlier, the Longhorn defense if big, fast and mean.  Conference season opens for Texas next week as they travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech, who were 52-17 winners against New Mexico Saturday night.  This game was a winner for me as I had picked the Red Raiders to win 48-10 and cover a 23 1/2 point spread.
Texas A&M was an 18 point favorite against Louisiana Tech and I'd predicted a 38-14 Aggie win to cover.  The final was 48-16 as they continue to put up impressive numbers against unimpressive opponents.  Things don't change next week as 0-1 Florida International travels to College Station.  I hope Mike Sherman isn't gaining too much weight from this cupcake diet he seems to be on this year.  We really aren't going to know much about them until Sept. 30th when they travel to Stillwater to face the Cowboys.
I hope your week goes well and I'll see you around Thursday or so with my picks for next week. 

   
   

 

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