Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Week 1. The Arch Rivalry

Week 1 finds the Tigers once again meeting the fighting Illini in St Louis. This will be the 7th meeting between the schools in St Louis where Missouri currently leads the series 5-1. All time records Missouri again leads 15-7, and is currently on a 4 game winning streak. Last year Mizzou won 52-42, but the season was somewhat disappointing. Beginning the season ranked 5th in the nation, Missouri won the North Division of the Big XII for the 2nd year, but finished with a 10-4 record, 5-3 in conference and one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Illinois finished the season 5-7; 3-5 in the Big 10, err 11, no 10. Quite a drop from their Rose Bowl season the year before.

I've gone over the starters for the Tigers in a previous posting, so let's concentrate on Illinois. Returning at quarterback is Juice Williams. He has the ability to keep Illinois in any game. He also has the ability to run them out of any game. He's thrown for 44 touchdowns in his career and 37 interceptions. He has a good target in Arrelious Benn who caught 67 passes last year for 1055 yards, but only 3 touchdowns. If he doesn't improve on that this season, expect Illinois to be home for the holidays again. Daniel Dufrene would figure to be the starter at running back. He gained over 600 yards last year and averaged almost 6 yards per carry. They have a nice blend of youth and experience on the offensive line with 2 seniors, 1 junior and 2 sophomores. On the defensive side of the ball, they'll run a 4-3. The defensive line is a bit undersized, the linebackers are young and the defensive backs don't see a lot of passing attacks in the Big 10 that would compare to what the normal Big XII offense is. Frankly, I'd feel better about this game if it happened in week 2. At this point, Illinois is a 7 point favorite and probably should be. However, until the show they can beat Missouri, I'll go with the Tigers 31-23.

Other games around the conference this weekend and my predictions. Normally, Missouri/Illinois would be the game of the week for opening weekend, but both Oklahoma schools have scheduled tough, especially Okie State.
Baylor @ Wake Forest(-1 1/2) Baylor has a chance to make an early name for themselves. They'll play well but lose 34-27
Colorado State @ Colorado(-11) The Buffs continue to have problems this year. I think they win this week though and cover, 27-10
9/3 North Dakota State @ Iowa State (no line) One of the 4 barkers for the week. ISU will win, but it will be closer than it should be. ISU 23-14
Northern Colorado @ kansas (no line) Another dog game. KU wind 49-13 and the national championship talk begins in Lawrence.
Massachusetts @ Kansas State (no line) Bill Snyder returns to his scheduling wizardry. KSU wins 34-14.
Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska(-22) Nebraska wins but fails to cover. 34-17 The spread could be less by gametime.
BYU @ Oklahoma(-21 1/2) Not uncommon for the Sooners to fall early. I don't think it will be this week though. They cover 49-27
Oklahoma State(-5 1/2) @ Georgia Too much love for OSU. They lose 34-28
University of Louisiana Monroe @ Texas(-40) What in the world is Mack Brown thinking? This one is over shortly after the coin flip. Texas should be ashamed of their non con schedule.
New Mexico @ Texas A&M(-13 1/2) I don't believe A&M should be double digit favorites over anyone. They win 27-17, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lose.
North Dakota @ Texas Tech (no line) A new TT quarterback and another passing clinic. Tech wins 49-21.

Let's play some football!!!!!

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