Monday, September 7, 2009

Mizzou vs Illinois. Not so instant analysis.

I love holidays. A chance to get out of the city, forget about work and hang out with old friends and catch up. Toss in the fact that it was the first weekend of the college football season, and it's tailor made for hanging out in the local pub, (3 blocks from where you're staying so you can walk home) and drinking far too many beers while immersing yourself in the experience.
I always felt that Mizzou would take out the cryin' Illini. Give Gary Pinkel a summer to prepare for Illinois and he wins. Give Ron Zook a summer to prepare and he's going to come out and piss all over his shoes. The guy's a great recruiter but simply can't coach a lick. All this being said, I admit I was really nervous the day of the game. How would all of our freshmen and sophomores respond to their first game in front of 60,000 screaming drunken fans and a national television audience? Would Blaine Gabbert fold under what was supposed to be a vicious Illinois pass rush? Would Juice Williams repeat his 470 + yards passing from last year? Well, the answers were great, no and no. Gabbert looked like a seasoned veteran after a couple of hiccups on the first drive. The line gave him time to throw generally and his receivers caught just about every ball that should have been caught. On defense, Dave Steckel simplified things. Gone was the Eberflus nickel defense last year that only succeeded in taking William Moore out of the equation. This year he rushed 4, let the linebackers drop back into short coverage and dared Williams to beat them with his arm. He failed miserably.
This was probably the best opportunity for an Illini win since the series began. They've dropped the series after next year. As long as they hold on to the Zookster as coach, I'd say it's a wise decision for them.
I predicted a 31-23 Missouri win in this game, going against the spread which showed Illinois as a 7 point favorite. I, along with most of the country completely overrated the value of experience on a Ron Zook coached team. Taking a look at the rest of my predictions, which weren't all that good:
Wake Forest was a 1 1/2 point favorite over Baylor. I thought that was about right and predicted a 7 point Wake win. Baylor however showed a good defense and won 24-21. They look to have things heading in the right direction, but unfortunately for them play in one of the toughest divisions in college football.
I predicted Colorado over Colorado State by 17 points. (They were 11 point favorites) They promptly lost to their cross state rivals. Let the Dan Hawkins death watch begin. "This is college football baby!"
I also blew both of the Oklahoma scores. I thought Georgia would upset Okie Lite and that OU would cover the 20 point spread vs BYU. OU can still come back and have a great year, but I imagine that Sam Bradford is rethinking that whole coming back for another season thing.
I was pretty much on target with the rest of my north predictions. ku waxed traditional power Northern Colorado, Iowa State made North Dakota State look much better than they are but won, and K State beat UMass, although that was much more of a nail biter than it should have been. I also have to give credit to Nebraska. I thought their defense was more hype and substance but they held Florida Atlantic to 3 points. They did give up over 350 yards though, so the jury, in my opinion, is still out.
In the south, pretty much everything else played out as Vegas and I expected. Texas rolled some nobody from Louisiana, Texas Tech won by 25 over another North Dakota school, although they did fail to score 40 and A&M beat New Mexico.
Right now we've been given reason to believe Missouri may be better than expected. Possibly so will A&M, Baylor and possibly Iowa State. Colorado and Oklahoma may not be as good as expected. Don't take too much from a first week though. I'll be back on Friday with my predictions for this week. Now say it with me. M I Z.....

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