Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Week 5. Bye Bye

Well, we've come to that point of the season. Most everyone has finished up their non-con schedule and are preparing to get to the meat and potatoes portion. 5 teams have the week off in the Big XII so I'm going to to go outside the conference which is kind of fun anyway.
Last week was very good to me as I went 5-2 against the spread and 9-1 straight up. For the year, I'm 35-8 and 24-16 vs the spread. Oddly enough though, no casinos called asking for tips this week.
Let's open with the teams that are finishing up the non conference schedule.
Kent State (2-2) @ Baylor (2-1). The Bears suffered a crushing blow last week when their sophomore quarterback, Robert Griffin suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. I think Art Briles is a pretty good coach but a young, thin team will be hard pressed to win without their on field leader. Baylor opens as a 21 point favorite, but the line didn't come out until Wednesday. Kent State has failed both times they faced teams from BCS conferences and struggled to score in all 4 of their games. Baylor is going to be down this week, but I think they pull out a win before an October 10th trip to Norman. The Bears win 24-13, but fail to cover what I consider to be a ridiculous spread.
Thursday night the Colorado Buffaloes (1-2) visit West Virginia (2-1) at Morgantown. The Mountaineers open as a 17 point favorite in this game. Colorado quieted some of Coach Hawkins critics last week with a 24-0 win over the Wyoming Cowboys in Boulder. However, it's still hard to forget the 54-38 reaming they took on national television the week before against hapless Toledo. West Virginia lost to what appears to be a pretty good Auburn team 41-30 in their last game after opening with 2 wins. It appears that the win has emboldened the Colorado players and they've been providing some bulletin board material. Probably not the best move, especially when a team has had 2 weeks to prepare. West Virginia covers 34-10.
A week ago, I along with many others would have thought the OU @ Miami game this weekend would have been the biggest game of the week. That would have been before Virginia Tech administered a 31-7 bitch slapping to the Hurricanes in Blacksburg. That's the problem with the ACC. No matter how crappy the teams are, when 2 of them meet, one's going to win. The Sooners open as a 7 point favorite on the road. They cover this easily winning 42-10.
Texas A&M (3-0) opens as a 1 1/2 point favorite over Arkansas (1-2) at Jerryworld in Dallas. Every new stadium opening or remodel seems to be viewed by the owners as a cash cow where it's required you fill as many dates as possible. Both teams feature rabid fan bases that will travel to watch their teams play, regardless of how shitty they are. I expect a full house to watch this snoozer as A&M covers 27-21.
In the last of the non con tilts for the week, New Mexico (0-4) is a 36 point dog visiting Texas Tech (2-2). The Red Raiders choked one away last week falling 29-28 to Houston, spoiling what would have otherwise been a perfect week for me straight up. This isn't the juggernaut that the pirate put out on the field last year, which will become evident when conference season opens, but they're going to have enough to cover this week winning 52-10.
Speaking of professional teams milking every dollar out of a new or renovated stadium, what about Farmageddon at Arrowhead, pitting a 2-2 Kansas State team against 3-1 Iowa State? The Cyclones open as a 3 1/2 point favorite. My prediction on the over/under on the number of overalls in the stadium is 10,500, as close to 50,000 farmers will witness a 28-24 Iowa State win. Yeehaw.
Stepping outside of the Big XII now. In the Big 10, er 11, no 10, 4-0 Wisconsin is visiting 3-1 Minnesota. The Golden Gophers opened as a 2 1/2 point favorite. Both teams are 1-0 in the weak Big 10, er ll, no 10. Sorry, I won't do that again. The teams appear to be similar, but Wisconsin has a slightly better YPC average. I'll pick against the spread and go with the Badgers to upset Minnesota in an offensive dual 23-21. Besides, Wisconsin has the spookiest mascot in football.
Moving to the SEC, the 4-0 LSU Tigers travel to Georgia to play the 3-1 Bulldogs. Georgia is young but has played a more impressive schedule to this point. I'll go with the Dawgs to cover a 2 1/2 point spread, winning 24-20.
In the Pac 10, 3-1 USC opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite over Cal, also 3-1. I think that for all the love he gets, Pete Carroll hasn't done all that great a job. His roster is littered with 4 and 5 star recruits and he has 1 national championship to show for it. I also believe the Trojans are one of teams that will pay whatever it takes to get who they want. However, they've had their predictable conference slip and the Golden Bears will get their full attention this week. Pick USC to cover 38-28. Oh, and keep your eyes on the USC cheerleaders.
Good luck to your teams this weekend. And since neither kansas nor Nebraska is playing, I really mean it.

No comments:

Post a Comment