Sunday, October 4, 2009

Appomattox revisited.

This was one of those weeks where I remembered why I don't gamble.  After going 9-1 last week, I was brought back to earth with a 5-4 record straight up this week and a miserable 3-6 against the spread.  For the year now I'm 40-12 and 27-22 vs the spread.  
I wasn't quite as involved this week since my favorite team wasn't playing. That's not an excuse, just a fact. I really like some emotional involvement and I guess there was some to a degree. But once football season ramps up, I like watching my Tigers play every week. When things are going good, I fear a week off will break their momentum, and when they're going badly I worry about them dwelling for too long over a loss. This week the excitement for me increases greatly. Not only does the Tigers conference season begin. It's one of what I consider to be one of our rival games against the red hoarde from Nebraska.
I was withing 3 seconds of starting out the week 1-0 vs the spread but Colorado wouldn't cooperate. As it was, West Virginia did their best to give the game away, losing 4 fumbles. However, Cody Hawkins played the good guest by throwing 3 picks. Jarrett Brown may well have a strong arm, but he missed numerous receivers or the last seconds score wouldn't have mattered. They do have a fabulous running game however as Noel Devine rushed for 220 yards only 22 carries. The spread was 17 and I predicted a 34-10 WVU win. The final was the Mountaineers winning 35-24.
I, along with much of America was chuckling about the "Farmageddon" battle in Kansas City between Kansas State & Iowa State.  It really speaks about the hunger of the Chiefs organization to schedule this game in still only partially renovated Arrowhead Stadium.  That being said, the Wildcats and the Cyclones put on a better show than the Chiefs will most weekends.  The game was decided in the final 2 minutes when Iowa State scored what appeared to be the tying touchdown, only to miss the extra point.  The Cyclones were a 3 point favorite and I picked them to cover 28-24, so a pair of losses for me here.
I thought Baylor entering their game as a 21 point favorite was ludicrous.  Kent State is terrible, but the Bears just lost their sensational sophomore quarterback, Robert Griffin for the season to a torn ACL.  I predicted Baylor to win 24-13 but fail to cover.  However, their offense did surprise me to an extent, although an inept Kent State offense helped out with turnovers.  In the end though it was about what I expected with the Bears winning 31-15.
No doubt the biggest surprise of the week for me was Oklahoma not only failing to cover a 7 point spread but losing to Miami 21-20.  Bob Stoops is going to have a hard time playing the disrespect card now as the Sooners enter the conference season a mediocre 2-2.  OU had it's opportunities early but kept shooting themselves in the foot.  I wonder how Sam Bradford feels now in his decision to come back.  The tough part for him is now whether he will have the option of coming out this year of if he'll need to return to Norman for his senior season.  Either way, they have offensive line problems that they're going to need to solve pretty damn quickly if they have any intention of playing in the CCG this year.
I also whiffed badly on the Texas A&M/Arkansas matchup.  I predicted the Aggies to cover a 1 1/2 point spread.  They were brought back to earth rudely as the Hogs hammered them 47-19.  Ronnie Wingo even got an opportunity to score a meaningless 62 yard touchdown late in the game for the fighting Petrinos.
Texas Tech let me down also this week.  I'd foolishly predicted them to cover a huge 36 point spread against New Mexico.  The Red Raiders won 48-28.  My week of futility continued.
I was expecting 3 yards and a cloud of dust when Wisconsin visited Minnesota, and it was for a good part of the day.  However, it was one of the most exciting 4th quarters I've seen in some time with lots of passing, fumbles returned for touchdown, a flubbed onside kick, piss poor clock management by the Badgers, key penalties and finally a horrible fumble by the Minnesota quarterback when they appeared to be poised for a possible miracle comeback.  It was also nice watching Montee Ball get a few carries.  Damn I wish we could have gotten that kid.  I predicted Wisconsin to pull the upset and win 23-21 as a 2 1/2 point dog.  The final was 31-28 Badgers.  They get to keep the ax for the 6th straight year.
LSU was visiting Georgia as a 2 1/2 point dog.  I thought Georgia would cover this winning 24-20.  LSU scored late to win 20-13.  I have to say that the quality of athletes the SEC throws on the field on the defensive side of the ball is really impressive.  It's just the opposite of Big XII football where the best players are on offense.  I would love to see a non conference series between the two leagues.  It's hard to argue that the SEC isn't the best league right now due to the last several national championship games.
I finished up the night on a high note, although it was a game that I didn't see one moment of.  I'd predicted USC to defeat Cal and cover a 5 1/2 point spread winning 38-30.  Instead, they destroyed the Golden Bears 30-3.  Of course that's always a good excuse to throw in a photo of the USC song girls.
I'll hope for a better week next time.  I'll have my picks out by Thursday since one of the big games of the week is Thursday night in Columbia when Nebraska comes to town.  I'll be there in my gold cheering my ass off.  Have a great start to your week folks!

No comments:

Post a Comment