Thursday, October 22, 2009

Week 8: Backs against the wall

It just isn't getting any easier.  At the beginning of the year, I knew the 3 games of Nebraska, Okie State and Texas were going to be 3 of the biggest tests of the year for this young Tiger team.  2 weeks in, there is no other way to say it, but they've fallen terribly short.  The 4th quarter collapse against the hicks in Columbia followed by the inexplicable play selection last week in Stillwater were nothing compared to this weeks potential for disaster.  Texas is good.  Really good, and they can make you look very bad as was witnessed last year in Austin against a much more seasoned team than this years version of the Tigers.
Does that mean I'm throwing in my towel and calling this season a bust?  Not only no, but hell no.  I knew before the beginning of the season that 37 freshmen and sophomores on your 2 deep wasn't exactly a recipe for success, but hoped that the talent would carry them through.  Unfortunately, few teams recruit more talent than Texas, so this week it's going to be gutcheck time just to keep this baby close.
The early departures of Dominique Grooms, JP Tillman and Blaine Dalton has left the team short of quarterbacks, so Blaine Gabbert, sprained ankle and all is going to have to do his best once again to lead the team.  I've been impressed with the way this kid handles adversity due to injuries.  I still believe he's going to be a very good one for us, and I anticipate watching him for years after his college career ends on Sundays.  I believe that Mizzou will be the odds on favorite next year in the north, but we're just going to have to hope for the best the remainder of this season.
Moving on to predictions, there's just no way to break this down that looks favorable for the Tigers.  Texas has the advantage in experience, speed, size and most intangibles.  It has however, been the year of upsets so anything is possible.   Texas opens as a 13 1/2 point favorite.  Their offense has been a bit down but the defense remains solid.  I'll go with Texas 38-13.
Oklahoma State (5-1, 2-0) travels to Baylor (3-3, 0-2) as a 10 point favorite.  The Cowboys will still be playing without Dez Bryant, but have their running game going now, regardless of who the running back is.  I'm going to go with Vegas and predict an OSU win, covering the spread 31-20.  
Can Colorado make it 2 in a row?  Last week appeared to be another good first half effort that would be followed by a 2nd half collapse against the beakers in Boulder.  However, the Buffs rallied late and upset kansas 34-30.  The Buffs are 2-4 and 1-1 in conference.  Kansas State annihilated Texas A&M last weekend 62-14, which may say more about A&M than them.  They are 4-3 overall but currently sitting in first place in the north at 2-1.  The Wildcats open as a 4 1/2 point favorite at home.  If the game were in Boulder I'd pick Colorado by a touchdown.  However, I'm not sure they can pull off the road win.  They aren't as bad as they'd appeared before last week and KSU is no where near as good as they looked against the hapless Aggies.  I think the spread is about right here and I'll go with the Snyders to win, but fail to cover 31-27.
Iowa State (4-3, 1-2) travels to Lincoln to face the Cornhuskers (4-2, 1-1).  Nebraska's lack of team speed was exposed last weekend against Tech.  You'll never convince me they'd have stayed within 10 points of Missouri on a dry field.  They have a full blown quarterback controversy going now and Bo Pelini blasted the red hoard for booing his team last weekend.  This actually has the potential to roll downhill quickly for the bugeaters should the unthinkable happen and they fall to the Cyclones this weekend.  I think that they will pull it out however, winning 27-13.  That won't be enough to cover the spread, which I consider to be too high anyway with the hicks listed as a 17 1/2 point favorite.  As I say though, nothing would surprise me in this game.  
3-3 and 1-1 Oklahoma travels north to lawrence to face the 5-1, 1-1 kansas jayhawks.  The Sooners open as a 7 1/2 point favorite.  The loss at home to Colorado last weekend did some major damage to beaker stock.  They have a remarkably slow defensive backfield which a small and slow set of linebackers is unable to overcome.  Oklahoma lost Sam Bradford for the season on Wednesday as it was announced he'd have season ending surgery on his twice injured shoulder.  Back up quarterback or not, the Sooners are going to be able to move the ball on the pathetic jayhawk defense.
On the other side of the ball, ku quarterback Todd "Sparky" Reesing was harrassed all day by a Colorado pass rush that had more resembled glaciers forming that the Steel Curtain.  As badly as the year has gone for Oklahoma, the defense has been nasty and solid.  The beaks have 3 of the best playmakers in the division in Reesing, Meier and Briscoe.  Sadly, (well for them anyway) they just don't have the horses anywhere else.  Stoops boys will be pissed and looking to take it out on someone.  (yep, I mean you Todd)  Look for Okie to cover and double up the beaks, 34-17.  
In the final conference tilt of the week, Texas A&M (3-3, 0-2) travels to Lubbock to take on Mike Leach and the Red Raiders. (5-2, 2-1)  Tech opens as a 21 point favorite and actually, that sounds a little low to me.  Mike Sherman may not be allowed on the bus home after this one.  Tech wins big, 63-10.
I've found the out of conference schedule to be very boring this week.  However, I managed to pick 3 games that I found mildly interesting.  In the Big East, West Virginia (5-1, 1-0) opens as a 7 point favorite at home against UConn. (4-2, 1-1)  West Virginia has been moderately impressive this year, averaging around 35 points per game.  Had they not fallen in week 3 to an over rated Auburn team they'd be sitting comfortably in the Top 10 right now and we'd be drooling at the upcoming game against Cincinnati.  As it stands now, I think the Mountaineers win and cover, 35-17.
In the ACC, Clemson (3-3, 2-2) opens as a 6 point underdog to Miami.  (5-1, 2-1)  I don't think the Hurricanes are as good as their record would indicate but I think they have enough to take care of business this week.  Pick the Canes 31-24.
In the final game of the week, we go to Knoxville where Tennessee (3-3, 1-2) opens as a 16 point dog to #2 Alabama.  (7-0, 4-0)  The Volunteers earned their first win of any significance last week when they upset Georgia 45-19.  However, Georgia is suffering from the same malady as Mizzou this year.  Too much youth.
Meanwhile the Tide has rolled along on the strength of their defense.  I look for them to cover this, winning 34-10.  If you're wondering what this game did to be deemed worthy to talk about, may I present Lane Kiffin's wife; ahem, Layla.
Good luck this week, unless you are a kansas fan.

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