I usually start on these the day after the game. Sometimes a couple of days. It keeps me from being too giddy after a win, or too angry after a loss.
Tonight though, something happened that hasn't since Bob Stull was roaming the sidelines as Missouri's head coach. I left the game at halftime. Son # 2 and I held no expectations for a win on the drive, but we were just hoping for a good effort. I just don't believe that we saw one from either the players or the coaches, or for that matter; we fans. Don't get me wrong, it was a great crowd. 71,000 and some change, and I think very few of them expected a win. The air pretty much went out of the place after Texas converted a first down on a fake punt on their second drive. I've never claimed to be a football genius. I'm just a guy that loves watching his team and enjoys picking games, albeit poorly. But when Texas lined up for the punt, both the guy next to me and I called it. And then they by damn did just that and converted. It was as poor a half of football as I've seen in sometime. Now don't get me wrong. As I said before the game, Texas is damn good and they can make a good team look bad really quickly. But right now, we aren't a good team.
I've always been a supporter of Gary Pinkel. He's a good man that's built the Mizzou program from the ashes of 30 years of bad football. He brings in good kids, and graduates them. If he has any faults, it is his loyalty to his assistants and his stubborn nature. I fear that stubborn streak made him promote David Yost to the position of offensive coordinator before he was ready. To me it seems that we haven't tried to tailor the offense for the talent we have. Derrick Washington rushed for over 1000 yards last year as mostly a north/south runner. Now he seems to glide along the line of scrimmage looking for a hole that just is rarely there. The play of the offensive line has been nothing short of terrible and it was considered a strength before the season began. Blaine Gabbert has continued to be thrown into the fire when it appeared he would have benefited from a week off when we had little chance to beat Texas regardless.
Now we have 5 conference game remaining that will determine the season. 5 winnable conference games and still a gimpy quarterback. Colorado is now the most critical game we've played since ku in 2006. The Tigers season, in my opinion hangs in the balance next week in Boulder. Win, and the north division is still within our grasp. Lose, and it may well be a struggle to make a bowl game, and we'll see more of what we saw in the 4th quarter last night.
It was a so so week for me as I finished 6-3 straight up, but only 4-5 against the spread. For the year, I'm 57-22 straight up, but a miserable 37-39 against the spread. I'd predicted the Tigers to not only lose, but fail to cover so in the one game I'd love to have been wrong about, I was perfect, almost to predicting the score. Crap.....
Moving around the conference, in no particular order, I had predicted Oklahoma State would cover the 10 point spread in Waco, beating the Bears 31-20. I believe that Art Briles is a pretty good coach, and that he'd keep them playing hard despite the devestating injuries they've sustained this season. They may actually still be playing hard. What I saw in the first half would indicate that. However, the talent level is starting to take it's toll and the Cowboys rolled, 34-7.
Kansas State was a 4 1/2 point favorite over Colorado at home. I thought that a 2nd upset might be too much to expect of the Buffalo's after last weeks huge upset of the beaks, and I picked them to lose but cover the spread. The Wildcats however are doing what Mizzou, Nebraska and kansas are failing to do right now, which is shooting themselves in the foot. They won and covered 20-6. Kansas State may well have less talent than anyone in the north, but they play defense and don't make mistakes. They currently lead the division with a 3-1 conference record. The schedule, however doesn't do them any favors however down the stretch. We'll see how it plays out for them this week as they visit Norman to face the Sooners.
Speaking of shooting one's self in the foot, you need look no further than Lincoln, where corn nation served up 8 turnovers, including 4 inside the 5 yard line, losing a Big 10 like offensive showcase 9-7 vs Iowa State. The Huskers, with their schedule were my pick to win the division after winning the monsoon bowl in Columbia a couple of weeks ago. Now, they appear to have no answers and their fans are screaming for Shawn Watson's head on their message boards. I thought the 17 point spread was ridiculous to begin with, but I saw no way they'd fail to beat the Cyclones. Now you have to wonder how many wins they have in them. They travel to Baylor this week in a match up of teams desperate for a win.
In lawrence, the Sooner's entered as 7 point favorites against the jayhawks, and I had questions about Todd Reesing finishing the game against the Sooner pass rush. He and the beaks didn't let me down. Reesing threw picks on the jayhawks first three possessions and revealed what many suspected. The beak offense is a sham, built on wins against overmatched non conference opponents. Oklahoma won 35-13 and only a late ku touchdown prevented this from being even uglier. In retrospect, perhaps Reesing should have spent a little more time working out during the off season and a little less making sure he made an appearance at every kegger held within a 100 mile radius of lawrence. Then again, it might not have mattered. The kansas defense made the usually club footed Oklahoma offense look like a reincarnation of Air Coryell.
I thought that a 21 point spread was about right as Texas Tech traveled to College Station to face the Sherminators. After all, Tech had dominated Nebraska in Lincoln the week before while Tech had given up 62 points to the offensive challenged Wildcats of K State. Naturally, not only did the Aggies cover the spread, the won outright cruising to a 52-30 win over the Pirate.
Out of conference games haven't been kind to me this season and this week was no different as I went 0-3 vs the spread here. I thought the 6 point spread was about right with Miami hosting Clemson and I picked the Canes to win 31-24. However the Tigers prevailed 40-37 in overtime as Miami continues to be something of a difficult team to predict from week to week.
I also fell predicting West Virginia to cover what I considered to be a safe spread against Connecticut in a Big East shoot out. The spread was 7, and while the Mountaineers held on for a 28-24 win, it was still a loss.
Finally, in what I considered to be a lock, I had Alabama rolling against Tennessee. However, it took a last second block of a worm burner of field goal attempt for the Tide to hold on for a 12-10 win in Tuscaloosa. I would be remiss however if I didn't take one last opportunity to get some photo time for Lane Kiffin's prized possession, his wife Layla. (on the left during her college days at the University of Florida)
Ok, I'll say right now that I have no idea what's going to happen next week. This has been one of the most unpredictable seasons I've seen in sometime. Not to defend my inability to pick winners against the spread. This has affected everyone's, including guys that make a living at it. I don't know if it screams parity, or just mediocrity. Either way, I'll have a list of guesses up by Thursday. Have a good start to your week folks.
Monday, October 26, 2009
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