Thursday, October 29, 2009

Week 9:The biggest game since Armageddon 1 at Arrowhead?

At least, in my opinion, that's just what this week is for Mizzou.  No, not nearly as much at stake as was that cold night in 2007, but very important to the success of this season and maybe the direction of the program.  The Tigers are on a 3 game losing streak, although 2 of those were expected before the season started, at least by me.  The pain still comes from that 4th quarter in a downpour in Columbia on October 8th.  Had that game ended at the close of the 3rd quarter, MU would still be about where most people expected, or at least hoped right now.
But it did happen and now Missouri sits at 0-3 and in last place in the Big XII north and suddenly, even a bowl invitation doesn't appear certain.  We have a gimpy quarterback, still an anemic running game and an underperforming offensive line.  We don't get much of a pass rush and our cornerbacks are barely in the same area code as the receivers they're lining up to cover.
So what happens this week?  Colorado beat kansas 2 weeks ago in Boulder by putting up 34 points on the velvet curtain that is the beaker defense.  They've played some teams well, particularly on defense but continued to fall short except on 2 weekends this year.  They now appear to be starting Hansen at quarterback instead of Cody Hawkins, though it failed to provide much of a spark in the 20-6 loss to K State last weekend in Manhattan.  They neither run nor throw the ball very well, other than the week against kansas. If I was Coach Pinkel, I'd try to take some of the load off Blaine Gabbert this week and give the Buffalo's a steady dose of Washington, Moore and Lawrence.  This is a team that Missouri should be able to run on, particularly since they showed more life in their ground game against a Texas team that averaged giving up less than 2 yards per carry.
Missouri opens as a 3 1/2 point favorite.  I think they do a bit better than that this week and regain some confidence, winning 31-21. 
In other games around the conference, Nebraska travels to Baylor and opens as a 13 1/2 point favorite against the Bears.  The biggest question here, in my mind is why would anyone make the Huskers a double digit favorite after watching that offensive performance from last week?   Baylor however appears to have given up on their season after losing Robert Griffin.  I expected them to make a bowl game this year, but now have serious doubts.  You can't expect Corn nation to give up 8 turnovers again this week.  I'm going to go with Nebraska to win and cover 24-10.
Speaking of those 8 turnovers, if you dislike Nebraska, you'll love this: Comedy of errors!

The beneficiary of those mistakes, Iowa State travels to College Station this weekend to face the Aggies of Texas A&M as a 7 point underdog.  A&M really surprised me last weekend when they humiliated Mike Leach and the Red Raiders 52-30.  I still think that Mike Sherman is a terrible coach and I have no idea how they pulled off the upset.  The Big XII is insanely unpredictable this year once you get past Texas, and I'm not ruling out a loss from them before the season ends....possibly as soon as this week.  But in this game I'm going to go with the home team to win, but fail to cover.  A&M 27-24.
kansas opens as a 7 point underdog as they travel down south to face Texas Tech.  As I said earlier, the Pirate suffered from a huge defensive letdown last week after shutting down Nebraska the game before.  Todd Reesing and the kansas offense can make you pay for defensive lapses, and I expect that will continue this week.  However, the beaker defense, or velvet curtain is nothing short of terrible.  I think Tech recovers this week and takes out some frustration in a shoot out.  I'm going with the Red Raiders 52-31.

When you look at the top of the Big XII north, you might think it's the late 90's.  That's because you'll see Bill Snyder and the K State Wildcats sitting at the top.  Now I thought when he came back, that he might actually be the best coach in the division, but wouldn't have nearly enough talent to compete.  I'm not sure if I under rated his talent or just over rated the North.  Probably both.  Anyway, I think a little reality comes crashing down on the Wildcats this weekend as they travel to Norman to face the Sooners.   Oklahoma opens as a whopping 26 point favorite at home.  I think the Sooners win, but I believe the spread is just a little too high.  Bill's teams play solid defense and they don't make many mistakes.  Couple that with the fact that Stoops boys just aren't anywhere close to the offensive juggernaut they were the past couple of years, and I like the Sooners to win, but fail to cover.  31-10 Oklahoma.
The game of the week for this week is in Stillwater as the 7-0 Texas Longhorns visit the 6-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys.  I watched Texas dismantle the Tigers last weekend up close and personal.  Don't let the final score fool you.  The Longhorns could have put up 70 points if they'd wanted.  Oklahoma State is also very good and they have the sort of attitudes that makes them a team you just love to hate.  They did receive the news this week that their star receiver, Dez Bryant would continue to be considered ineligible for the remainder of the season.  He would be considered eligible for 2010, which was the NCAA's way of saying, "go find yourself an agent son".  Texas opens as a 9 point favorite and that would probably seem about right to me normally.  But this year has been wacky and when you come down to it, the gamblers haven't been picking winners with much more success than I have.  It would be a really bad year to start gambling.  I believe that Texas wins this game, due to their superior defense.  I don't think they cover the 9 though and I'll take the Horns in a close one, 31-24.
Moving out of conference, Florida opens as a 16 point favorite against Georgia, in a game being played in Jacksonville.  The Gators are undefeated but really haven't been blowing teams out this year.  Tim Tebow has suffered from the early season concussion, and you kind of get the feeling that they're waiting, expecting to simply dial it up when they inevitably meet Alabama in the SEC title game.  Meanwhile, Georgia has had a decidedly un Bulldog like year, as they currently sit 4-3.  I think I'm going to go with the Gators coming out of their "funk" a bit this week and handing the Bulldogs an ass whipping.  Go with Florida, 42-17.
I looked and looked and just couldn't find any other out of conference games that interested me this week.  Apparently the traditional rivalrys that haven't been played yet are now being saved for November.  So with that, I'll only give myself the opportunity to be humiliated 7 times this week.   There are some really interesting non con's coming up including Ohio State/Penn State and Alabama/LSU.
Good luck to your team this week unless you root for you know who.

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