Around the Big XII, part 6. kansas

I'm not going to lie.  I've been looking forward to this.  There are very few constants in live, but along with death and taxes, Missouri fans detest kansas and ku fans revel in misfortune that happens to Missouri.  I'm cool with that.  Basketball is king in larry, and they absolutely have a program to be envied, and they have no problem reminding you of that.  In other sports, football included, it's a different story, as was pointed out in this opinion piece that appeared in kusports.com.  The beaks were 3-9 last year and 1-7 in conference play.  Among those losses was the season opener at home where they were dropped 6-3 to FCS North Dakota, who finished a respectable 9-5 but lost to such teams as Northern Iowa, Western Illinois and Missouri State.  Only a huge comeback against Colorado prevented the beaks from an 0-8 conference record and the memories of 2007 are further and further in the rear view mirror.

Last year the crimson and blue replaced Mark Mangino with a former Cornhusker quarterback, head coach and aspiring deity, Turner Gill.  Gill had been passed over by his former coach director  and best friend, Tom Osbourne when he was in charge of replacing the train wreck that was Bill Callahan.  While he wasn't quite good enough to make the cut at the university he played for, former beak athletic director Lew Perkins decided to drop a 5 year, 10 million dollar contract complete with no buy out clause to obtain his services.  For Tiger fans, it was a blessing and an absolute joy to watch.  The beaks have little idea which quarterback will be on the field for them this fall, but the smart money's on Jordan Webb, a St Louis product that snapped up his only D1 offer and moved west to kansas.  A freshman, also from Missouri is Darrian Miller, who enrolled early and now sits # 2 on the depth chart at running back.  He at one time held offers from Iowa and Minnesota but rumors said both of those were retracted, leaving him no where to head but larry.

In 2007 the beaks rode a schedule that didn't include Texas, Oklahoma or Texas A&M from the Big XII south to a 11-1 record, and a chance to be ranked # 1 in the country when they met Missouri in the first Border showdown football game played in Kansas City.   Despite losing that night, the beaks were able to parley that into an Orange Bowl appearance against Virginia Tech, another over rated BCS program.  This year the squawks open with 2 cupcakes at home in McNeese State and Northern Illinois before taking their act on the road against Georgia Tech, who will have something to prove after being one of the beaks 3 wins last year.   I'm calling for ku to go 2-1 in their non conference schedule, but the over-under for conference wins is 1.  In my opinion, the only win they should be expecting, or at least hoping for is against Iowa State, and for ku, it's unfortunate that it's being played in Ames.  But somewhere I think they'll win a conference game, and regardless of who it's against it will be something of an upset.
Next time we'll talk about someone else that had a disappointing season last year, but who's hopes should be considerably brighter, the Texas Longhorns.

Around the Big XII. Part 2, Texas Tech

We've talked about a couple of the less successful programs in the conference so far, with Baylor and Iowa State.  Today, I'd like to take a look at a team that while not being a power, does sport the longest bowl streak in the conference with 11 straight appearances.  In his first season as head coach, Tommy Tuberville started slow, but closed out with 3 straight wins, admittedly over inferior competition Weber State, Houston and Northwestern to close out with an 8-5 record, so the jury may well still be out on him.  The Red Raiders biggest win of the year had to be the 24-17 win over Missouri when inexplicably, MU offensive coordinator David Yost went away from the run after the Tigers opened up with a 14-0 lead.  Tuberville is never going to be mistaken for former coach Mike Leach but he's a damn fine coach and for the sake of the conference, I hope Tech is able to keep him.

The big question for Tech this year is who replaces Taylor Potts at quarterback.  Despite his reputation as a defensive guru the Red Raiders still ranked 7th nationally last season in passing.  The early favorite would probably be Seth Doege, a 22 year old junior that only had 4 passing attempts last season.   They return 3 offensive linemen but also have questions at running back.  Defensively, they return only 5 starters so it's going to be  tough to repeat last years record.  However, I expect Tech's defense to still be stout.

Tech's non conference schedule remains weak this year, opening with Texas State and a trip to New Mexico before returning home to play a rebuilding Nevada squad.  The confernce schedule is another matter however with trips to Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Baylor.  Their only break there is an early trip to lawrence to face a kansas team that may well be the worst in the conference.  Kansas State and Iowa State are home games that should be very winnable but Texas A&M and Oklahoma State will be rough contests.  If I'm guessing right now, and I am, I expect Tech to open 3-0 before going either 4-5 or 5-4 in conference.  A big swing game for them will be the finale at Waco in late November.  Either way, I expect this to make an even dozen consecutive bowl games for the Red Raiders.
Next time we'll talk about the Baylor Bears.

More random thoughts

Generally we don't have a lot of Missouri athletics information coming out at this time of year, simply because things are winding down.  We're getting a nice run out of the softball team however so we've had that going for us.  And basketball have given us news, both good and bad since Mike Anderson flirting with Arkansas became evident to even those of us that were supporting him.  It's good if you write a Missouri-centric blog like I do, or if you write for a legitimate site like Dave Matter, Mike DeArmond or Vahe Gregorian, but frankly, I think a lot of our fan base needs a chance to chill.  I'm a member of 2 pay sites that are devoted to Missouri athletics and it used to be that you'd see posters less inclined to find fault with the athletic department than the free sites.  But now it seems that we're getting as many or more pissing matches on PowerMizzou as we do on Tigerboard.  I admit it's worn me down and I try to be selective of who I'm reading.

One thing most all Missouri fans can agree on is the new television deal announced with Fox Sports this week is going to play very nicely for the conference.   The new 13 year agreement will pump around 90 million dollars into the league per year and guarantees that a minimum of 40 Big XII football games, plus olympic events will be broadcast, giving the league a ton more exposure.  With the ABC/ESPN deal entering stages of renegotiation the conference could well be the largest money maker of the 6 BCS conferences at least until someone else negotiates a new deal.  It appears that with Nebraska and Colorado leaving the conference, revenue will increase for the remaining members, and adds a sense of stability to a league that many, including myself left for dead after the realignment talks last summer.

Frank Haith has announced 3 hirings for his staff at Missouri this week, and Tiger fan seems to be encouraged for a change.  Tim Fuller comes to CoMO from Louisville and has the reputation as a top notch recruiter.  He's been a long time friend of Coach Haith and has ties with the AAU circuit as well as Nike.  Lord knows with all the scholarships becoming available in the next 13 months, that we can use an aggressive lead recruiter.  Joining him on the bench will be Ernie Nestor, formerly the director of basketball operations at Penn State, who achieved a remarkable turnaround this year, qualifying for the NCAA tournament after going 11-20 the year before.  He's considered to be a good x's and o's guy and a nice compliment to all the youth on the bench.   Tordor Pandov also joins as the new strength and conditioning coach and comes to Mizzou with Haith from Miami.  2 more names will surface as there is still room for a 3rd assistant as well as a director of basketball operations.  I'm still holding out hope that we might bring in a guy with some St Louis ties.  The complete inability of mike anderson to recruit on the east side of the state was a huge disappointment to me.

The state and strategy of the Missouri athletic department.

Mike Alden, a man with a tough job.

It should be hate week as the Tigers prepare to close the regular season in men's basketball against kansas, but I just don't feel the burn.  The season has been a bit of a disappointment and I'm certainly more of a football guy, but playing the beaks in hoops has been something of a losing proposition since Norm Stewart roamed the sidelines at Hearnes.  Instead, I've been thinking about the athletic department as a whole and how I feel about the success.  To start off, if you've read this blog for long you know that I'm a big fan of Mike Alden.  He's hired the people that, by in large, have kept Mizzou competitive in most of the 20 programs that the university supports.  Yes, he's last in league titles, but that doesn't paint the entire picture.    While receiving approximately 53 million dollars in funding last year, revenues were dwarfed by such departments as Texas at 120 million, Okie Lite at 88 mil, ku at 86, OU at 77 and A&M at 74 million.  How hard can it be to be successful when you're operating with that kind of financial advantage?   

The beaks pack the house.

An obvious solution would be for the Tiger fans to step up to the plate and donate more money, but frankly, I don't believe that's realistic in this economy.  I'm keeping up with my annual TSF donation, but with so much uncertainty I can't justify giving more.  Hell, the gas pumps and Price Chopper are taking all the more.  If there was some sort of consensus on allocation then it would make Mikes job easier.  kansas made over 30 million dollars more than Missouri last year but outside of mens hoops, where's their success?  One thing you can always count on is kansas fielding a national contender in basketball.  That's where their passion is and that's where they get their identity.  Oh, they may bitch about how bad their football team is, and they love to boast that they've played the all time series tightly against MU, but other than that, they aren't willing to demand a better football program or even to support one.  They'll let every other program die on the vine as long as mens hoops is appearing regularly on Big Monday.  I'm not saying it's right or wrong.  It's just their strategy.  Meanwhile, in COMO the strategy is to finish in the top 3rd of the conference in all sports.  Compounding the problems is the fact that Missouri offers more programs than Texas, who brings in more than 65 million dollars more in revenue.

Do you know which squad this is?

If I was running the show, which of course I'm not, I'd be figuring out how to whittle down the number to the minimum required, which I believe is around 14.  I don't want to seem like I'm picking on programs but come on, when was the last time you went out to watch a swim meet?  For that matter, what about womens gymnastics, golf or cross country by either gender?  Yes, they are legitimate sports and I'm glad that kids have an opportunity to earn a scholarship for activities they've excelled in, but sooner or later you have to be able to pay your own way.  I'd probably cut it down to 5 sports for men, with football, hoops, baseball, wrestling and track and field, and however many I could cut on the womens side to keep Title IX compliance.  And frankly, it may come to that.  And like I say, if your son is a great golfer and you were hoping he'd get a chance to play for the home school, I don't mean this as an insult.  But don't complain that the basketball team isn't doing as well as you'd hoped.  They simply are having to share too many funds with teams that don't begin to contribute anything to a strapped athletic department.

So who exactly is orchestrating this right now?

What's happening in college football now is unprecedented.  We've seen swerves and double swerves followed by more swerves during the last couple of weeks.   First Missouri is heading to the Big Ten.  Then Nebraska jumps in and winds up with the bid that the Tigers felt was theirs.  Then Chip "Scoop" Brown announces that the Pac 10 is prepared to offer Colorado and the Big XII south, minus Baylor.  Then Texas determines they can't leave Baylor behind so they tell the Pac 10 they'll have to take the Bears over the Buffalos.  Then the Pac 10 issues their middle finger to Texas and offers Colorado without a mention of Texas and their little brothers.  Now Texas A&M decides fuck Texas, we're going to talk to the SEC. 

So just exactly where are we now?  In the middle of a really high stakes poker game is where.  I do know that in the game we saw Texas blink first, but oddly enough, at this point in time I believe that A&M is holding all the cards.  They apparently have an offer in hand from the SEC that they are prepared to accept as soon as Tuesday morning.  So now Texas faces having to go to the Pac 10, carrying Tech, OU and Okie lite with them which may not be anything like the Pac 10 envisioned in the first place.  After all, the Aggies would have been considered a much bigger prize than the Red Raiders or Cowboys.

So, as the clock nears midnight in rides Dan Beebe with what he claims is an offer from Fox Sports to pay the remaining 10 teams SEC money for the television rights.  Word has it that the Longwhorns are prepared to accept this offer this week, providing A&M comes along.  The reason, in my opinion is that if Texas goes to the Pac 10 their dream of a Texas channel will never come to fruition.  The new deal supposedly allows any and all teams to explore their own networks including starting up their own channels.  I would currently give this about a 30% chance of actually happening, but given the uncertainty of Missouri receiving an offer from the Big Ten or SEC, it's a good fall back position for the Tigers right now.  In poker-ese, Missouri may have just drawn a one eyed jack to go with their 2 pair.  Or, in Vince McMahon's world, maybe the hulkster (Dan freaking Beebe?) just stormed the ring to make a save. 

Appomattox revisited.

This was one of those weeks where I remembered why I don't gamble.  After going 9-1 last week, I was brought back to earth with a 5-4 record straight up this week and a miserable 3-6 against the spread.  For the year now I'm 40-12 and 27-22 vs the spread.  
I wasn't quite as involved this week since my favorite team wasn't playing. That's not an excuse, just a fact. I really like some emotional involvement and I guess there was some to a degree. But once football season ramps up, I like watching my Tigers play every week. When things are going good, I fear a week off will break their momentum, and when they're going badly I worry about them dwelling for too long over a loss. This week the excitement for me increases greatly. Not only does the Tigers conference season begin. It's one of what I consider to be one of our rival games against the red hoarde from Nebraska.
I was withing 3 seconds of starting out the week 1-0 vs the spread but Colorado wouldn't cooperate. As it was, West Virginia did their best to give the game away, losing 4 fumbles. However, Cody Hawkins played the good guest by throwing 3 picks. Jarrett Brown may well have a strong arm, but he missed numerous receivers or the last seconds score wouldn't have mattered. They do have a fabulous running game however as Noel Devine rushed for 220 yards only 22 carries. The spread was 17 and I predicted a 34-10 WVU win. The final was the Mountaineers winning 35-24.
I, along with much of America was chuckling about the "Farmageddon" battle in Kansas City between Kansas State & Iowa State.  It really speaks about the hunger of the Chiefs organization to schedule this game in still only partially renovated Arrowhead Stadium.  That being said, the Wildcats and the Cyclones put on a better show than the Chiefs will most weekends.  The game was decided in the final 2 minutes when Iowa State scored what appeared to be the tying touchdown, only to miss the extra point.  The Cyclones were a 3 point favorite and I picked them to cover 28-24, so a pair of losses for me here.
I thought Baylor entering their game as a 21 point favorite was ludicrous.  Kent State is terrible, but the Bears just lost their sensational sophomore quarterback, Robert Griffin for the season to a torn ACL.  I predicted Baylor to win 24-13 but fail to cover.  However, their offense did surprise me to an extent, although an inept Kent State offense helped out with turnovers.  In the end though it was about what I expected with the Bears winning 31-15.
No doubt the biggest surprise of the week for me was Oklahoma not only failing to cover a 7 point spread but losing to Miami 21-20.  Bob Stoops is going to have a hard time playing the disrespect card now as the Sooners enter the conference season a mediocre 2-2.  OU had it's opportunities early but kept shooting themselves in the foot.  I wonder how Sam Bradford feels now in his decision to come back.  The tough part for him is now whether he will have the option of coming out this year of if he'll need to return to Norman for his senior season.  Either way, they have offensive line problems that they're going to need to solve pretty damn quickly if they have any intention of playing in the CCG this year.
I also whiffed badly on the Texas A&M/Arkansas matchup.  I predicted the Aggies to cover a 1 1/2 point spread.  They were brought back to earth rudely as the Hogs hammered them 47-19.  Ronnie Wingo even got an opportunity to score a meaningless 62 yard touchdown late in the game for the fighting Petrinos.
Texas Tech let me down also this week.  I'd foolishly predicted them to cover a huge 36 point spread against New Mexico.  The Red Raiders won 48-28.  My week of futility continued.
I was expecting 3 yards and a cloud of dust when Wisconsin visited Minnesota, and it was for a good part of the day.  However, it was one of the most exciting 4th quarters I've seen in some time with lots of passing, fumbles returned for touchdown, a flubbed onside kick, piss poor clock management by the Badgers, key penalties and finally a horrible fumble by the Minnesota quarterback when they appeared to be poised for a possible miracle comeback.  It was also nice watching Montee Ball get a few carries.  Damn I wish we could have gotten that kid.  I predicted Wisconsin to pull the upset and win 23-21 as a 2 1/2 point dog.  The final was 31-28 Badgers.  They get to keep the ax for the 6th straight year.
LSU was visiting Georgia as a 2 1/2 point dog.  I thought Georgia would cover this winning 24-20.  LSU scored late to win 20-13.  I have to say that the quality of athletes the SEC throws on the field on the defensive side of the ball is really impressive.  It's just the opposite of Big XII football where the best players are on offense.  I would love to see a non conference series between the two leagues.  It's hard to argue that the SEC isn't the best league right now due to the last several national championship games.
I finished up the night on a high note, although it was a game that I didn't see one moment of.  I'd predicted USC to defeat Cal and cover a 5 1/2 point spread winning 38-30.  Instead, they destroyed the Golden Bears 30-3.  Of course that's always a good excuse to throw in a photo of the USC song girls.
I'll hope for a better week next time.  I'll have my picks out by Thursday since one of the big games of the week is Thursday night in Columbia when Nebraska comes to town.  I'll be there in my gold cheering my ass off.  Have a great start to your week folks!

Week 3. Furman

I really don't like the non conference season as much as I used to. I understand it but I just don't like it. My team started out the year with a big win over a border rival and we had dreams of playing in Dallas in December for the Big XII title. Now after a nail biter against a MAC team, (who may very well be better than Illinois) we're again fearful that this season will come tumbling down and we'll be lucky to make a bowl game.
As I said after the game, you're never as good, or as bad as you think. This team will be playing in a bowl when the season's over. We are now determining whether we'll be booking rooms in San Diego, Dallas (or dare to dream; Phoenix) or the Super 8 in Shreveport. At the start of the year I thought 8 wins would be a very nice season with a team this young. Less than 7 and I'd be hugely disappointed. Figure out a way to get to 9 or 10 and I'll pony up the first donation for Pinkel's statue.
The fact is, we aren't going to know much more about the Tigers next week unless it's bad. That's the main reason I hate games like this. There's just no upside to it, other than padding your win total and getting the reserves a chance for some game experience. Anything less than a 40 point victory and it's as bad as losing the season opener would have been.
As near as I can tell, there's no line on this weeks barker and there shouldn't be. Furman is 2-0 with scintillating wins over Presbyterian and Chattanooga. As near as I can tell, the highlight of their football history was an 18-12 win over a 3-7 North Carolina State team in 1976. However, I did discover the college is in South Carolina and their mascot is the Paladin. And no, I have no idea what a Paladin is. Don't expect any more of a breakdown than this. It's just not worth it. Frankly, the week will be a success if; 1) No one gets hurt, 2) we're watching 3rd stringers play midway through the 4th quarter, 3) it's warm enough I can wear shorts to the game. Missouri rolls, 49-6, mostly due to the fact that Gary Pinkel hates to run up the score on teams such as this.
I had a decent week with my predictions going 8-2 outright and 7-3 vs. the spread. I did get a question of whether I'd be guessing (and that's really what I'm doing) any games outside of the Big XII. Yes, I'll try to give you at least 10 games a week that you can lose some money on if you're stupid enough to pay attention to me. So here we go.....
UCONN(1-1) @ Baylor (1-0) -10. Baylor had last week off after opening the season with a 24-21 win at Wake Forest. UCONN has struggled to score, beating Ohio 23-16 in week 1 and falling at home to North Carolina last week 12-10. Now they've lost their starting quarterback to a knee injury. I would have bet Baylor straight up to begin with but now think they'll cover, 27-14.
Wyoming (1-1) @ Colorado (0-2) -7. This is a make or break week for the Buffs. Win and they have a chance to finish to take some heat off Dan Hawkins. Lose, and they may lay down and quit. I think they'll pull one out this week, but I don't think they cover. Colorado, 28-24.
Iowa State (1-1) -3 @ Kent State (1-1) One of the least attractive games of the week. I've read all of 30 seconds about it. If Austen (the human turnover) Arnaud can avoid another 4 interception performance like last week, I think the Cyclones will cover. Besides, I refuse to pick a team called the "Golden Flashes" Iowa State wins 24-20.
Duke (1-1) @ kansas (2-0) -21. kansas sucks but Duke sucks more. beaks win 52-13.
Kansas State (1-1) @ UCLA (2-0) -11 1/2. At least a legitimate reason to watch this game. The UCLA cheerleaders. Yummy. And I hear they're playing a game while you watch the dance team. Another long afternoon for wild Bill. Bruins coast, 38-10.
Nebraska (2-0) @ Va Tech (1-1) -3 1/2. Hick nation has been planning this as their 2009 coming out party since that glorious win against the greatest underachievers in college football, Clemson, at last years Gator Bowl. I've never cared much for Beamer but he has a great running attack and the bofense of the corndogs is getting gashed to the tune of 150 yards per game. And this week they'll actually play against a team whose parents didn't drive the players to the game. Va Tech wins 38-14 but it won't feel that close.
Tulsa (2-0) @ OU (1-1) -11 1/2 OU is still without their heisman quarterback. It won't matter much more than it did last week. The Sooners roll 49-10.
Rice (0-2) @ Oklahoma State (1-1) -32 Much the same will happen in Stillwater as the fighting Gundys prepare to show the college football world they are still men. They drill the hapless Owls 52-6.
Utah State (1-0) @ Texas A&M (1-0) -17 1/2. I don't really think Mike Sherman is much of a coach, but it won't be revealed this week. That will wait for the conference season. A&M wins but fails to cover, 34-21.
Texas Tech (2-0) @ Texas (2-0) -17 I think this is a nice touch kicking off the conference season. I wish more teams would do it just to save us from some of the non-con barkers we're generally subjected to. I think this point spread is a little high for a Texas team that hasn't shown much yet. Mack Brown will play the revenge card though and I expect Texas to cover, 41-21.
I'm a week late, but I'll be in Columbia for the game this weekend. I'm really looking forward to seeing the team live for the first time as well as the new scoreboard. Good luck to your teams this week unless you're a kansas fan.