Appomattox revisited.

This was one of those weeks where I remembered why I don't gamble.  After going 9-1 last week, I was brought back to earth with a 5-4 record straight up this week and a miserable 3-6 against the spread.  For the year now I'm 40-12 and 27-22 vs the spread.  
I wasn't quite as involved this week since my favorite team wasn't playing. That's not an excuse, just a fact. I really like some emotional involvement and I guess there was some to a degree. But once football season ramps up, I like watching my Tigers play every week. When things are going good, I fear a week off will break their momentum, and when they're going badly I worry about them dwelling for too long over a loss. This week the excitement for me increases greatly. Not only does the Tigers conference season begin. It's one of what I consider to be one of our rival games against the red hoarde from Nebraska.
I was withing 3 seconds of starting out the week 1-0 vs the spread but Colorado wouldn't cooperate. As it was, West Virginia did their best to give the game away, losing 4 fumbles. However, Cody Hawkins played the good guest by throwing 3 picks. Jarrett Brown may well have a strong arm, but he missed numerous receivers or the last seconds score wouldn't have mattered. They do have a fabulous running game however as Noel Devine rushed for 220 yards only 22 carries. The spread was 17 and I predicted a 34-10 WVU win. The final was the Mountaineers winning 35-24.
I, along with much of America was chuckling about the "Farmageddon" battle in Kansas City between Kansas State & Iowa State.  It really speaks about the hunger of the Chiefs organization to schedule this game in still only partially renovated Arrowhead Stadium.  That being said, the Wildcats and the Cyclones put on a better show than the Chiefs will most weekends.  The game was decided in the final 2 minutes when Iowa State scored what appeared to be the tying touchdown, only to miss the extra point.  The Cyclones were a 3 point favorite and I picked them to cover 28-24, so a pair of losses for me here.
I thought Baylor entering their game as a 21 point favorite was ludicrous.  Kent State is terrible, but the Bears just lost their sensational sophomore quarterback, Robert Griffin for the season to a torn ACL.  I predicted Baylor to win 24-13 but fail to cover.  However, their offense did surprise me to an extent, although an inept Kent State offense helped out with turnovers.  In the end though it was about what I expected with the Bears winning 31-15.
No doubt the biggest surprise of the week for me was Oklahoma not only failing to cover a 7 point spread but losing to Miami 21-20.  Bob Stoops is going to have a hard time playing the disrespect card now as the Sooners enter the conference season a mediocre 2-2.  OU had it's opportunities early but kept shooting themselves in the foot.  I wonder how Sam Bradford feels now in his decision to come back.  The tough part for him is now whether he will have the option of coming out this year of if he'll need to return to Norman for his senior season.  Either way, they have offensive line problems that they're going to need to solve pretty damn quickly if they have any intention of playing in the CCG this year.
I also whiffed badly on the Texas A&M/Arkansas matchup.  I predicted the Aggies to cover a 1 1/2 point spread.  They were brought back to earth rudely as the Hogs hammered them 47-19.  Ronnie Wingo even got an opportunity to score a meaningless 62 yard touchdown late in the game for the fighting Petrinos.
Texas Tech let me down also this week.  I'd foolishly predicted them to cover a huge 36 point spread against New Mexico.  The Red Raiders won 48-28.  My week of futility continued.
I was expecting 3 yards and a cloud of dust when Wisconsin visited Minnesota, and it was for a good part of the day.  However, it was one of the most exciting 4th quarters I've seen in some time with lots of passing, fumbles returned for touchdown, a flubbed onside kick, piss poor clock management by the Badgers, key penalties and finally a horrible fumble by the Minnesota quarterback when they appeared to be poised for a possible miracle comeback.  It was also nice watching Montee Ball get a few carries.  Damn I wish we could have gotten that kid.  I predicted Wisconsin to pull the upset and win 23-21 as a 2 1/2 point dog.  The final was 31-28 Badgers.  They get to keep the ax for the 6th straight year.
LSU was visiting Georgia as a 2 1/2 point dog.  I thought Georgia would cover this winning 24-20.  LSU scored late to win 20-13.  I have to say that the quality of athletes the SEC throws on the field on the defensive side of the ball is really impressive.  It's just the opposite of Big XII football where the best players are on offense.  I would love to see a non conference series between the two leagues.  It's hard to argue that the SEC isn't the best league right now due to the last several national championship games.
I finished up the night on a high note, although it was a game that I didn't see one moment of.  I'd predicted USC to defeat Cal and cover a 5 1/2 point spread winning 38-30.  Instead, they destroyed the Golden Bears 30-3.  Of course that's always a good excuse to throw in a photo of the USC song girls.
I'll hope for a better week next time.  I'll have my picks out by Thursday since one of the big games of the week is Thursday night in Columbia when Nebraska comes to town.  I'll be there in my gold cheering my ass off.  Have a great start to your week folks!

Week 5. Bye Bye

Well, we've come to that point of the season. Most everyone has finished up their non-con schedule and are preparing to get to the meat and potatoes portion. 5 teams have the week off in the Big XII so I'm going to to go outside the conference which is kind of fun anyway.
Last week was very good to me as I went 5-2 against the spread and 9-1 straight up. For the year, I'm 35-8 and 24-16 vs the spread. Oddly enough though, no casinos called asking for tips this week.
Let's open with the teams that are finishing up the non conference schedule.
Kent State (2-2) @ Baylor (2-1). The Bears suffered a crushing blow last week when their sophomore quarterback, Robert Griffin suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. I think Art Briles is a pretty good coach but a young, thin team will be hard pressed to win without their on field leader. Baylor opens as a 21 point favorite, but the line didn't come out until Wednesday. Kent State has failed both times they faced teams from BCS conferences and struggled to score in all 4 of their games. Baylor is going to be down this week, but I think they pull out a win before an October 10th trip to Norman. The Bears win 24-13, but fail to cover what I consider to be a ridiculous spread.
Thursday night the Colorado Buffaloes (1-2) visit West Virginia (2-1) at Morgantown. The Mountaineers open as a 17 point favorite in this game. Colorado quieted some of Coach Hawkins critics last week with a 24-0 win over the Wyoming Cowboys in Boulder. However, it's still hard to forget the 54-38 reaming they took on national television the week before against hapless Toledo. West Virginia lost to what appears to be a pretty good Auburn team 41-30 in their last game after opening with 2 wins. It appears that the win has emboldened the Colorado players and they've been providing some bulletin board material. Probably not the best move, especially when a team has had 2 weeks to prepare. West Virginia covers 34-10.
A week ago, I along with many others would have thought the OU @ Miami game this weekend would have been the biggest game of the week. That would have been before Virginia Tech administered a 31-7 bitch slapping to the Hurricanes in Blacksburg. That's the problem with the ACC. No matter how crappy the teams are, when 2 of them meet, one's going to win. The Sooners open as a 7 point favorite on the road. They cover this easily winning 42-10.
Texas A&M (3-0) opens as a 1 1/2 point favorite over Arkansas (1-2) at Jerryworld in Dallas. Every new stadium opening or remodel seems to be viewed by the owners as a cash cow where it's required you fill as many dates as possible. Both teams feature rabid fan bases that will travel to watch their teams play, regardless of how shitty they are. I expect a full house to watch this snoozer as A&M covers 27-21.
In the last of the non con tilts for the week, New Mexico (0-4) is a 36 point dog visiting Texas Tech (2-2). The Red Raiders choked one away last week falling 29-28 to Houston, spoiling what would have otherwise been a perfect week for me straight up. This isn't the juggernaut that the pirate put out on the field last year, which will become evident when conference season opens, but they're going to have enough to cover this week winning 52-10.
Speaking of professional teams milking every dollar out of a new or renovated stadium, what about Farmageddon at Arrowhead, pitting a 2-2 Kansas State team against 3-1 Iowa State? The Cyclones open as a 3 1/2 point favorite. My prediction on the over/under on the number of overalls in the stadium is 10,500, as close to 50,000 farmers will witness a 28-24 Iowa State win. Yeehaw.
Stepping outside of the Big XII now. In the Big 10, er 11, no 10, 4-0 Wisconsin is visiting 3-1 Minnesota. The Golden Gophers opened as a 2 1/2 point favorite. Both teams are 1-0 in the weak Big 10, er ll, no 10. Sorry, I won't do that again. The teams appear to be similar, but Wisconsin has a slightly better YPC average. I'll pick against the spread and go with the Badgers to upset Minnesota in an offensive dual 23-21. Besides, Wisconsin has the spookiest mascot in football.
Moving to the SEC, the 4-0 LSU Tigers travel to Georgia to play the 3-1 Bulldogs. Georgia is young but has played a more impressive schedule to this point. I'll go with the Dawgs to cover a 2 1/2 point spread, winning 24-20.
In the Pac 10, 3-1 USC opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite over Cal, also 3-1. I think that for all the love he gets, Pete Carroll hasn't done all that great a job. His roster is littered with 4 and 5 star recruits and he has 1 national championship to show for it. I also believe the Trojans are one of teams that will pay whatever it takes to get who they want. However, they've had their predictable conference slip and the Golden Bears will get their full attention this week. Pick USC to cover 38-28. Oh, and keep your eyes on the USC cheerleaders.
Good luck to your teams this weekend. And since neither kansas nor Nebraska is playing, I really mean it.