Around the Big XII. Part 2, Texas Tech

We've talked about a couple of the less successful programs in the conference so far, with Baylor and Iowa State.  Today, I'd like to take a look at a team that while not being a power, does sport the longest bowl streak in the conference with 11 straight appearances.  In his first season as head coach, Tommy Tuberville started slow, but closed out with 3 straight wins, admittedly over inferior competition Weber State, Houston and Northwestern to close out with an 8-5 record, so the jury may well still be out on him.  The Red Raiders biggest win of the year had to be the 24-17 win over Missouri when inexplicably, MU offensive coordinator David Yost went away from the run after the Tigers opened up with a 14-0 lead.  Tuberville is never going to be mistaken for former coach Mike Leach but he's a damn fine coach and for the sake of the conference, I hope Tech is able to keep him.

The big question for Tech this year is who replaces Taylor Potts at quarterback.  Despite his reputation as a defensive guru the Red Raiders still ranked 7th nationally last season in passing.  The early favorite would probably be Seth Doege, a 22 year old junior that only had 4 passing attempts last season.   They return 3 offensive linemen but also have questions at running back.  Defensively, they return only 5 starters so it's going to be  tough to repeat last years record.  However, I expect Tech's defense to still be stout.

Tech's non conference schedule remains weak this year, opening with Texas State and a trip to New Mexico before returning home to play a rebuilding Nevada squad.  The confernce schedule is another matter however with trips to Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Baylor.  Their only break there is an early trip to lawrence to face a kansas team that may well be the worst in the conference.  Kansas State and Iowa State are home games that should be very winnable but Texas A&M and Oklahoma State will be rough contests.  If I'm guessing right now, and I am, I expect Tech to open 3-0 before going either 4-5 or 5-4 in conference.  A big swing game for them will be the finale at Waco in late November.  Either way, I expect this to make an even dozen consecutive bowl games for the Red Raiders.
Next time we'll talk about the Baylor Bears.

Week 10:Time to snap back

Toward the end of the Larry Smith era at Missouri the Tigers had reverted to the form they'd shown during the Woody Widenhoffer and Bob Stull years.  That means they were bad...really bad.  Larry was trying to figure out ways to keep morale up after the devastating losses would continue to pile up.  One time he gave every player a tennis ball so they'd remember to bounce back.  That seemed stupid enough but when he gave everyone rubber bands to wear around their wrists to remember to snap back I knew he was a dead man walking, and it probably was going to end badly in Columbia for him.  At that point we'd pretty much been terrible for the better part of 2 decades and I wondered if we'd ever be decent again.  I'd be lying if I didn't admit I was less than excited when I heard we'd hired Gary Pinkel.  Mainly because I'd never heard of Gary Pinkel.  Thankfully I was wrong and now I couldn't be happier to have him coaching my team.
Both the Tigers and I have to snap back this week.  They suffered their first loss of the season at Lincoln last week against the soon departing hicks and I once again lost more than I won against the spread with my predictions.  I went 4-2 straight up but on 2-3 against the spread.  For the year I'm 59-15 straight up but only a touch above water at 34-30 against the point spread.  So I'm hoping for better things from both of us this weekend, but mostly my Tigers.

Mizzou travels to Lubbock Saturday night on ABC's nationally televised game against the Red Raiders.  Tech is 4-4 on the season and 2-4 in conference play.  Last weekend they fell 45-27 to Texas A&M at College Station in a game that really wasn't that close.  Mike Leach no longer patrols the sideline for Tech which isn't particularly good news since Coach Pinkel seemed to have his number.  However, Tommy Tuberville has experienced a lot of growing pains and it appears that the Red Raiders bowl streak may well end this year.  Missouri only opens as a 4 1/2 point favorite and the crowd isn't going to be nearly as intimidating as it was last week in Bugtussel.  If I was a gambler this would be like taking money to me.  I'm going to pick the Tigers to get back into the win column this week and cover 31-17.
Something happened this year that no one forsaw and that's the rebirth of the Baylor football program.  The Bears, fresh off an upset of Texas last week in Austin travel north this weekend to Stillwater to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are 6-1 themselves.  Okie Light opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite in this one but I believe they'll do a bit better.  I'm taking the Cowboys to win and cover 35-27.

In lawrence this weekend it's the rumble at Mount Oread as the Colorado Buffalo's come to town to face the jayhawks for undisputed possession of 11th place in the conference.  Both teams are 0-4 in Big XII play and this represents their last best chance to avoid the cellar.  The Buff's open as a 9 point favorite.  I love to hate on kansas as much as anyone, but that line seems ridiculous to me.  Not that I think ku doesn't suck; they do, but so does Colorado and their dead man walking coach.  In a game where neither team has an offense or defense, I'm going to take the Pac 10's newest crown jewel to win but fail to cover.  Colorado wins 28-24.

It's back to grand times in Lincoln as their countrified version of the big red machine pulls up stakes and heads east for their final battle with Iowa State.  After their convincing win over the Tigers last weekend, hick nation is once again out in full force and predicting losses to the 7 or 8 teams in front of them as they march to their rightful destination in Glendale at the national championship game.  The corn open as 19 point favorites in this game and believe me, nothing would give me more pleasure than watching a repeat of last years game in Hooterville.  Unfortunately I don't see it happening.  Nebraska wins and covers 38-13.
Oh how the mighty have fallen this year.  In Manhattan, last years national champion runner's up the Texas Longhorns limp in with their 4-4 record to face the Wildcats who are still looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The whorns open as 4 point favorites in this game and while I'd like to pick the Cats, I think that UT has enough to pull this one out on the road, although I think it will be a nail biter.  I'm picking Texas 24-21.

The week closes out at College Station where the A&M Aggies play host to the Sooners who are still walking a bit stiff from their loss in Columbia a couple of weeks ago.  Texas A&M switched out to quarterback Ryan Tannehill last weekend and it paid off big as they swept past Texas Tech 45-27.  I feel safe saying this OU team is light years better than the Red Raiders, and the line opening at OU minus 3 1/2 looks like a license to print money.  The Sooners roll, 41-14.   
That's all I have for now.  I hope to get back to you Sunday with a recap of my Tigers getting back in the win column.  Have a great weekend!

Week 6: When the season really begins.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy some of the non con games.  But it's not the same as a conference match up.  And this is going to be the last time Missouri and Colorado meet as conference opponents.  Kind of a sentimental attachment that I'll miss in a way.  At least until I remember that this is the 20th anniversary of the "5th down" game.  And Johnson still hasn't scored.
But that was then and this is now.  The Tigers have won 4 in a row and outscored the Buffs 149-27 in the last 3 games, 2 of which were held in Boulder.  Kickoff is at 6:00 Saturday evening, the weather should be beautiful and I hope that there will be at least 65,000 out there with me to welcome the team back after a weeks layoff.  The Tigers open as a 13 point favorite in this one.  Mizzou isn't scoring points like they have the last 3 years but so far we appear to be playing much better defense.  I'm going to go with my Tigers to win and cover here by a score of 31-13.

The week opens up in Manhattan, ks on Thursday as hick nation takes the tractor caravan down to the little apple to face Bill Snyder and the Wildcats.  This is a game the K State fans have had circled since last season.  Both teams appear to be somewhat one dimensional, with very good rushing attacks.  We've all been told that Daniel Thomas is the best back in the conference, if not the nation and he may well be.  But if Carson Coffman can't offer some sort of a threat when he drops back, teams are going to follow the example provided by Central Florida and stack 8 or 9 in the box to shut him down.  Likewise for the children of the corn.  Taylor Martinez has been great running the option as his almost 500 yards of rushing will attest to.  But he's only passed for about 500 yards so far and I don't believe that's going to get it done in Big XII play.  Nebraska opens as a 12 point favorite in this one and I've gone back and forth.  I think they have better personnel than the cats, but the game is at home and you generally have to give the coaching advantage to Snyder.  I'm taking Nebraska to win this game, but fail to cover.  Nebraska 24-14.
On Friday night we'll have another game played as the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Lafayette, to face the Ragin' Cajuns.  All you really need to know here is they lost to Georgia 55-7 in week 1.  Yep, same Georgia team that fell to Colorado last week.  Okie lite opens as a 24 point favorite here.  I'll take the
Cowboys to win and cover 49-13.

The most intriguing game of the week may be in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders desperately need a win as they sit 0-2 in conference play.  Generally having Baylor come to town would seem the perfect cure, but these appear to be a much improved crop of Bears.  If you don't believe me, ask Turner Gill.  Tech opens as a 2 point favorite here and they should go into this game as a cornered animal.  But I'm going to take Baylor to pull the upset here 28-24.  If this occurs, TT coach Tommy Tubberville can forget about the call coming from Georgia after the season and Tech can start wondering what the hell they were thinking when they made the pirate walk the plank last year.
In Ames, the Cyclones welcome the 10th ranked Utes to town.  The 'Clones have done pretty well this year and I'm really not surprised.  I'm a pretty big Paul Rhodes fan, but was still more than surprised when they took Texas Tech to the woodshed last week.  But the Utes are very good and I think the Iowa State fans will leave disappointed this Saturday.  Utah opens as a 6 1/2 point favorite here.  I think they cover and win 38-24.

In Dallas, we have the 2nd installment of Texas A&M vs Arkansas played in Jerry World.  Both teams are 3-1, but the Aggies are showing more nicks than a space shuttle after re-entry into the atmosphere.  The hogs have had 2 weeks to think about that late loss to Alabama and I expect them to do some rolling this weekend.  Arkansas opens as a 7 point favorite here.  I'm taking them to cover with the potential that this could get out of hand.  I'll take the Razorbacks to win, 41-27.

In Ann Arbor, Michigan the Michigan Wolverines take on their cross state rivals, the Michigan State Spartans.  Both teams are 5-0 and 1-0 in Big Ten play.  I just can't help but feel however, that these records have been built with some smoke and mirrors and having Notre Dame on their schedules.  None the less, this is the big game of the day and you just know that the Big House will be rocking.  Michigan opens as a 4 1/2 point favorite in this one.  The winner is going to have a leg up with both having tough schedules coming up.  I'm going to go with the Wolverines to cover 27-21 in this one, mostly due to the fact that I think they can less afford a loss with Iowa coming to town next week.  Rich Rod also needs a win in this one to keep the crowd quieted, since I don't believe they've bought into the team turning the corner yet anymore than I have.
That's all I have for now.  I hope that whoever you follow they do well, and hopefully you can make it out to a game.  I intend to be hitting Columbia around 2:00 that afternoon and enjoy some great tailgate food before the 6:00 kickoff.  Have a great rest of the week folks!