Week 5: Reflecting on the non con schedule.

I think a week between the non con schedule and the conference opener is just about perfect.  It gives some guys that are dinged up a little time to heal and the coaches time to look at film of upcoming opponents.  It also gives we fans a chance to kick back and relax, or in my case spend a weekend on the honey do list.  (Didn't we just wash those windows last year?)  It's been an interesting pre season starting with the annual win over Illannoy at the dome.  It's a series that needed to end though and I'm looking forward to contests with Arizona State the next 2 years.  I do kind of fear that with the conference schedule expanding that we'll see less of those kind of games however.  And I get it.  If you're going to be playing teams like OU, Texas, Okie Lite and Tech every year, just how difficult does the non conference schedule need to be?

So what did we learn from our first 4 games?  Well, we may not have a Danario Alexander, but Michael Egnew and TJ Moe are pretty darned good.  Toss in what could be a healthy Jerrell Jackson as a possible deep threat and the passing game could be above average in what appears to be a Big XII conference that is a bit down from previous years.  We appear to have 4 running backs capable of breaking off big plays if given the smallest of seams.  Blaine Gabbert seems to stay in the pocket a bit longer and seems to be spreading the ball out a bit more, but I'd still like to see a few more throws heading Wes Kemps way.  And the defense has been light years ahead of last season.  Carl Gettis and Andrew Gachkar in particular have just torn things up so far, and Dom Hamilton has been solid in the middle of the line.  And what needs to be said about the Smith Brothers, Madison, Sam and company on the outside?  You have to give DC Dave Steckel a lot of credit for the improvements he's made.  The Big XII seems more wide open this year.  Texas seems to be unable to rush the football, OU has been in tight games outside of taking Florida State to the woodshed in week 2, and Nebraska is only going to be as good as their running game will take them.  I don't see anyone as a clear cut favorite this year, and the Tigers have as much of a chance to break out as any of the teams I've mentioned.       

It's been a rough year for me picking against the spread.  I'm just 16-19 there and I'm beginning to think that it's at least partially due to increased parity in college football.  Oh, I can get the winners as a pretty darned good record of 37-5 should show, but nothing appears to be a slam dunk this year.  That being said, I'm going to keep making my picks and taking my medicine on Sunday mornings.  The week starts early when Texas A&M travels north to Stillwater Thursday night to take on the Cowboys.  Both teams are 3-0 but A&M seems to have some problems while OSU has throttled 2 of their 3 opponents so far.  The Cowboys open as 3 point favorites in this one but I don't think it's going to be that close.  I think that Jerrod Johnson indeed has some shoulder problems and it's going to be tough for the Aggies to keep up with teams that can score during conference play.  I'm taking the Cowboys to win and cover easily, 31-17.

Down in Waco, the Baylor Bears host kansas this weekend.  It could be a matchup of biblical proportions as Turner Gill takes his no swearing policy into the home of the poster children of the Bible Belt.  The Bears open as 9 1/2 point favorites in this one.  The beaks have been poison for me this year on their way to their 2-2 record.  I think Baylor pulls away in the 2nd half of this one and covers, 34-21.  And like most Missouri fans, all I can say is "Go Baptists".
Out west in Boulder the Buffs wind up their non conference schedule by hosting the Georgia Bulldogs.  Now normally I'd say this would be a blow out, but this ain't the Dawgs of 10, 5 or even 3 years ago.  Georgia currently sits at 1-3 with consecutive losses to South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State.  This is just unacceptable for their fans.  They come in as a 4 1/2 point favorite on the road.  I think they'll be able to turn things around a bit and pull this one out, but fail to cover.  I'm picking Georgia with a late score to win 21-17.

Up in Ames, the Cyclones host Texas Tech, who comes in as a 7 1/2 point favorite.  Both teams are 0-1 in conference play and will be hungry for a win.  I think Paul Rhodes is a very good coach but he's going to get schooled Saturday night by one of the best.  I'm taking Tech to win and cover, 31-14.
The biggest game in the conference is in Dallas this week as Texas and Oklahoma get together for the Red River Shootout.  Despite offers from Jerry Jones, the game is going to remain in the Cotton Bowl until 2015, assuming of course that the stadium doesn't collapse.  Both teams have looked extremely beatable so far this year, although the Sooners have remained unbeaten.  OU comes in as a 4 point favorite.  I'm not thinking this is enough.  Oklahoma looked great a couple of weeks ago when they dismantled a pretty good Florida State team.  I think they bring their A game Saturday and coast, 35-17.
There are a couple of pretty good games out of conference this weekend as Alabama is at home against the Gators from Florida.  This features the 2 best coaches in the game in Nick Saban and Urban Meier.  The Tide opens as a 9 1/2 point favorite in this one.  Despite being in a dogfight against Arkansas last weekend, I think Bama comes in focused and puts this away by halftime.  I'm taking Saban and company, 34-21.

Out west, Stanford travels north to play the Oregon Ducks.  Both teams are 4-0, and 1-0 in the Pac 10, soon to be Pac 12.  Oregon is a 7 point favorite at home.  Both squads have a pretty impressive resume so far this year.  Stanford's wins include Notre Dame, Wake Forest and a UCLA team that blasted Texas last week.  Oregon opened the season with a 72-0 win over New Mexico and has followed up with impressive road wins over Tennessee and Arizona State.  I'm going with the home team to win and cover here, as I think Oregon wins 41-27 in a shootout.  And of course the main reason to even look at this game will always be the Duck Cheerleaders.
That's all I have for now.  I may watch some of the A&M/Okie light game tonight but I'm sort of saving up my week night football for next weekend when K State hosts hick nation at Bill Snyder Family Stadium & dry cleaners.  Good luck to your team this week and we'll see how I did next Sunday or so. 

Can the defense be a little less offensive?

Sorry about the delay from my last post.  I've been finishing an e book project that was actually my first paid writing gig.    Between that and not really knowing how to address this.  Frankly, since a very good performance in 2007, the defense has suffered horribly the past 2 seasons.  Many were rejoicing after the 2008 season when Matt Eberflus left for a job as the linebackers coach for the Cleveland Browns.  He was replaced by Dave Steckel, long time linebackers coach under Gary Pinkel.  A former Marine, Steck was expected to toughen up the defense that had become too passive under Eberflus.  However, things didn't really change much as the Tigers were about as successful at defending their territory as the French Army.
But, it's just the beginning of spring practice and optimism always flows like water for me.  The practice reports I've read from Gabe DeArmond and Dave Matter have both mentioned the defensive back playing more press coverage and less giving the receivers 8 to 10 yards of cushion.  This would definitely be a good thing, but one thing I have noticed is the Tigers lack of a defensive tackle that creates chaos on the line.  In 2007 Lorenzo Williams was an absolute terror in the middle, collapsing pockets and giving the quarterback no place to go.  In '08 Ziggy Hood was a run stopping piece of machinery, but rarely provided any discomfort for the quarterback as he tried to step up to get away from pressure.  Last year it was more of the same for starters Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton.  However, Hamilton was a red shirt sophomore and came on as the season went along so I have some high hopes for him.  I have no idea where the other starter comes from but some candidates are Terrell Resonno, Jimmy Burge, Marvin Foster and possibly even incoming freshman Lucas Vincent.  We simply have to get some pressure up the middle, whether it come from a down lineman or a linebacker.  There are ways to scheme around the lack of an overpowering defensive tackle.  It's just going to be up to Steckel and the rest of the defensive staff to find it.

Now when you talk about defensive ends and the Tigers, it's hard not to smile when you have guys like Jacquies Smith and Aldon Smith coming back.  Aldon was a freshman all america and the future looks just insanely bright for the kid coming out of Raytown.  Blessed with a 6'5" frame and a wingspan like a Cessna, the kid has early round NFL pick written all over him.  Behind these 2 are such notables as Brad Madison, Marcus Marbrough and Brayden Burnett.  As nervous as I am about the defensive tackle situation, I'm very confident that Mizzou has defensive ends that are as good as anyone in the country.  
Another spot I feel good about is the linebacking situation.  Missouri has quietly built depth there and despite the loss of All America Sean Weatherspoon,  I expect the crew to be more than adequate.  The guy in the middle should be junior Will Ebner; a Texas kid that just loves to hit people.

The down side of will however is the fact that he probably couldn't cover me out in the flat.  For him to be truly effective the Tigers have to have some guys on the outside that can run and cover a tight end or running back.  One guy that fits that description is Andrew Gachkar, a kid from across the state line in Blue Valley, kansas that the beaks let get away from them.   He's got the speed of a safety in a 230 pound body and another kid with a nasty streak.  Look for sophomores Zaviar Gooden or Donovan Bonner to man the other side, but don't forget about transfer Josh Tatum who was out with injury last season.

So now we come to what I really was regretting, the defensive backfield.  The upside is that all of the starters are returning.  The other side of the coin is that we were on the far side of terrible last year.  The starters, at least entering spring ball were Carl Gettis and Kevin Rutland at the corners and Jarrell Harrison and Jasper Simmons at the safeties.  You have to assume/hope that they'll all be improved with another year under their belts but I'm hoping to see some pressure put on them by younger guys such as Robert Steeples, Trey Hobson and Kenji Jackson.  If not, then the coaching staff showed their concern by bringing in no less than 5 and possibly as many as 7 new DB candidates in last years recruiting class.  The popular opinion is that EJ Gaines from Fort Osage and Tristen Holt from Gilmer, Texas would be the 2 most likely to contribute early, as in against Illinois at the dome on September 4th.

So in closing, I remain hopeful, but that's just how I am.  I think the talent level on the defensive side of the ball is comparable to any in the league except for the defensive tackle position.  The Tigers have a lot of young talent at that position but so far have rarely been able to find someone that's a real difference maker.  The offense should be good enough to position the Tigers for a run at a division title and possibly a conference championship.  If the defense can just wind up top 50 in the country, the Tigers should be a force for the next couple of years since this is still one of the younger teams in the league.  You have to think that this is in the coaches corner.  And the tackle position does have some bright spots also for 2011 when Vincent has a year in the program and hopefully we see Big Sheldon Richardson ride into Columbia.  
No idea what I have going on to write about next time, so if you have anything you'd like to hear about, please let me know.  I know people are reading this since I hear from some of you from time to time.  Please feel free to leave me a comment and have a great week.