Around the Big XII. Part 3, Baylor

Last entry I was talking about Iowa State, a team that had a young coach that had broken a bowl drought in '09 only to fall back last season, and not a lot of hope for this year.  Today I'd like to talk about the Baylor Bears, a team with a not nearly as young coach that broke a 15 year absence with an appearance in the Texas Bowl.  The two schools share a lot in common in that they're both hard to recruit to and don't spend the money on athletics like their competition.  However, Baylor is still in Texas and that's going to give them a big leg up with the Texas kids, which is a main component of Big XII football.  Their future looks a little brighter right now.  Last year the Bears stood at 7-2 with a win over Texas before falling flat to end the year with 4 straight losses, including aa 38-14 trouncing to Missouri's favorite whipping boy, Illinois.

Head coach Art Briles is a native Texan who moved from the job at Houston to Baylor in 2008 and began the slow process of trying to make a small, private college competitive with the like of Texas, Oklahoma and the other south powers.  Probably nothing he accomplished that first year was bigger than recruiting a kid named Robert Griffin.  Griffin was a highly rated, highly sought 4 star recruit who chose the Bears over a host of better known schools.  He's turned out to be Coach Briles version of what Brad Smith was for Gary Pinkel.  A star on a team full of somewhat average players that gave them some credibility.  Frankly, I'm kind of surprised he returned this year, but it's good for Baylor as well as the rest of the Big XII.  Recruiting has since picked up and I expect them to remain competitive as long as they can hang on to Briles.

Their schedule this season is still very respectable as it will be with all conference teams with the new round robin format.  In addition to the conference games, the Bears open with a biggie, TCU at home before settling down with games against Stephen F. Austin and Rice.  Road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M will certainly be tough, but they also travel to kansas and Kansas State which won't be nearly as daunting.   Their home schedule is very tough with Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri coming to Waco.  The only breather there is an Oct. 8th match up with Iowa State.  It's not going to be easy for the Bears to make a second straight bowl game without a little help and an upset or two.  Right now, I'd pick them to go 2-1 in the non conference schedule, and hope for a 4-5 conference record.  The final 2 games of the season, at home against UT and Texas Tech will be critical.  They, in my opinion will have to at least win one of those games.  But regardless, the Bears are going to be fun  to watch and for some reason, those lily white cheerleaders of theirs have always been among my favorites.
Next time, we'll talk about another north team, the Kansas State Wildcats and head coach Bill Snyder.

Week 12:Style points or hanging on by a thread.

There is very little in-between this week as we roll toward the end of the season.  The seven Big XII teams that have qualified for bowl games are now playing for style points and bowl positioning.  4 more teams still have at least a punchers chance of getting to six wins, and only one poor miserable bastard of an athletic department has a program that has no hope of getting to six wins and very little of getting to four.  Any guesses who I might be talking about?   Well of course, it's my 2nd favorite team next to the Oakland Raiders.  Every Tiger fan realizes I mean the kansas jayhawks.  The last 2 weeks have been quite kind to the peckerheads as they rallied from 28 points down 2 weeks ago to pull out their first conference win in over a year against the Buffalo's of Colorado.  They then backed that up with a solid defensive performance against hick nation last week as they fell, but a much shorter distance than expected, 20-3.  It's senior day in Larry and Oklahoma State is coming to town to send off a graduating class that just 3 short years ago left Miami as Orange Bowl champs.  Since that day they've won 16 games in 3 years.  9-1 Okie Lite comes in as a 24 point favorite.  I see no way the beaks keep it that close, but they've probably provided me with more losses than anyone this year.  However, I'm going to do what Tiger fans do and lead with my heart.  Take the Cowboys to cover and win, 48-13.

My guys travel north to Ames this weekend to face the Cyclones, who are as desperate as anyone in the country.  The Clones blew a golden opportunity to qualify for their 2nd bowl game in a row last week as they fell 34-14 in Boulder.  They've lost starting quarterback Austin Arnaud for the season in the process and HAVE to win this weeks game if they're to continue practicing next week.  Missouri got back on track a bit last weekend as they withstood a 4th quarter rally by the K State Wildcats and hung on for a 38-28 win in the final game at Faurot Field for this season.  The Tigers have been devastated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and plagued by inconsistancy on the offensive side.  The Tigers open as 11 point favorites but I don't expect the Cyclones to go down without a fight.  I'm picking Mizzou to win, but fail to cover, 31-24 on a late touchdown run from Kendial Lawrence.   

In Waco, two teams that already know they are going to be playing after Thanksgiving are matching up as Baylor hosts Oklahoma.  The Sooners have to win this game to make their contest against cross state rival OSU mean something as far as the title game to be played in Jerry World.  Baylor has a chance to win it's 8th game and take a trip to someplace a little more exotic than Houston for the Texas Bowl.   OU opens as an 8 point favorite in this game, and really just needs a win.  However, Bob Stoops will still be trying to make a statement going into next weeks road trip to Stillwater.  I'm looking for the Sooners to win and cover, 42-20.
Another team that has already qualified for the post season was the team that I watched last weekend in Columbia.  The Wildcats travel west to Boulder to face a Colorado team that won it's first conference game last weekend against Iowa State.  This had to be a good sign for interim head coach Brian Cabral, who would like to have the job.  The fact that he could probably be had fairly cheaply is another.  The Buffs need to close out with a win this week and next at Nebraska to qualify for a bowl game.  As much as I'd love to see that, I just don't believe they have a prayer.  For some reason, there's no line for this game but I see Bill Snyder going for win # 7 and a chance to move up in the bowl pecking order.  K State 34, Colorado 24.

Another team that needs to win out to be eligible for post season play surprisingly resides in Austin, where the 4-6 Longhorns host the 4-5 Florida Atlantic Owls.  The Owls have won 3 straight game, but is a streak over Florida International, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Lafayette all that impressive?  I think not.  UT meanwhile is on a 4 game losing streak that includes Iowa State, K State and Baylor.  Both the team and the fans appear to have mailed in the season but this game still has to be played.  Texas opens as a 21 point favorite in this showdown and I feel like they might, just might pull a little bit of self respect out and attempt to make a run at a bowl game.  God knows they could use they extra practice.  It probably won't matter much since they'll also need to win next week at home against A&M, but I do expect them to cover this Saturday.  I'm taking the whorns, 38-14.  

Yet another team that needs a win this weekend is Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders sit at 5-5 with 2 remaining non conference games to go.  The easiest of the two happens this weekend as they host Weber State from the "Is that really a" Conference.  All you need to know about Weber State is that this is their season finale as they only play 11 games.  No line on this game either, but I'm picking Tech to get their 6th win this week, with a score in the 41-21 range.

Probably the best game of the week is in College Station where a suddenly resurgent Aggies team goes for win number 8 against 9-1 and likely north representative Nebraska.   A&M has won 3 straight games since they hit their low point of the season, a 30-9 loss at home to Missouri while Nebraska sits at 9-1 but has struggled the last two weeks against Iowa State and kansas.  Hick nation opens as a 2 1/2 point favorite this week, and maybe I'm calling this one with my heart instead of my head, but I'm taking the Aggies to pull the upset and win 31-27 late. 
That's about all I've got for this week.  I did want to say thanks to those who've been reading this.  This is my 100th post.  I've been somewhat amazed at the number of hits this has been receiving.  If you get a spare few minutes, I hope you'll stop by my website at www.merlinsedge.com  Thanks and we'll talk again on Sunday.

Week 11:The biggest game of the season.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, the games always get bigger this time of year if you're having some success.  A game against Kansas State at home is probably the biggest game the Tigers have played this year due to previous circumstances.  The last game I attended was the OU game, two weeks passed now.  The mood was buoyant after that game; the Tigers were 7-0 and cracked the top 10.  Then bang.  The Tigers unquestionably played their worst quarter of football in Lincoln to fall behind 24-0, and then to add insult to injury, after an early 14-0 lead the offense goes into hiding as they lose their 2nd game in a row to Texas Tech.
Coach Pinkel is a victim of his own success now.  After that 7-0 start, anything less than 10 wins is going to be considered a failure.  The OC, David Yost is taking the lions share of the blame right now, which I can't disagree with, along with the quarterback Blaine Gabbert, which while I can't completely agree with, is understandable.  Missouri needs this game badly.  A loss now and a final regular season record of 8-4 is staring the team in the face, which is going to make for a very disappointed fan base.  Win Saturday, and you should be guaranteed at least a 9 win, and very possibly a 10 win regular season.  I'd take that every September if you offered it to me.

Last week was brutal for me as I went 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread.  For the year, I'm 61-17 straight up and 35-35 against the point spread.  The game against K State really worries me this weekend.  The Wildcats are bowl eligible at 6-3 and playing for position and style points right now.  They are still a fairly one dimensional team, but Missouri hasn't proved incredibly successful at stopping the run since Dominique Hamilton went down with a broken ankle during the OU win.  Kay State only put the ball up 4 times last weekend against Texas but Daniel Thomas and new quarterback Collin "Calvin" Klein combined for 233 yards as the Cats basically put the final bullet in the head of the Longwhorns season.  I think Missouri can reasonable keep 7 in the box this weekend with the occasional safety or corner blitz and keep the Cats to a manageable amount of rushing yards and time taken off the clock.  I'm probably saying this more out of my heart than my head.  The Tigers are favored by 13 points in this game.  I'm taking them to win and cover, 38-21.   

In Waco, the bowl eligible Baylor Bears play host to the bowl eligible Teas A&M Aggies.  That's not one many folks saw coming before the season began, at least not with 3 games remaining in the season.  A&M has played well the last couple of weeks since replacing Jerrod Johnson at quarterback.  The Aggies come to town as 3 point favorites in this one, but I believe the Bears are going to protect their home turf.  I'm taking Baylor 31-30 in a nail biter.
We all knew it was going to happen at one time or another and this week the Colorado athletic department finally did the merciful thing and put a bullet in the head of Dan Hawkins career as the Buff's head coach.  Sometimes you'll see a team use this as motivation to win in support of a popular coach that's been terminated.  I don't look for that here.  The Clones come in as 2 point favorites in this one and need 1 more win in their last 2 games to reach bowl eligibility again.  I don't think they want their season to depend on beating Missouri next week, despite the Tigers recent struggles.  I think ISU wins and covers easily.  Take the Cyclones, 31-21.

The kansas jayhawks, fresh off tasting the heady beverage of conference victory for the 2nd time in 14 months head north to the land of corn as they put their winning streak up against the huskers.  Nebraska barely got out of Ames alive, escaping with a 31-30 victory.  The hicks open as a 35 point favorite and I don't believe this game will ever be in doubt.  But I think that at some point Dr. Tom may whisper in Bo Pelini's ear and ask him to take it easy on the Doc's best friend.  The hicks win but miss covering 38-10.
In Norman, the suddenly vulnerable appearing Sooners host the guys that my team played last weekend, the Red Raiders from Texas Tech.  OU is out of the national championship picture now after last weeks loss to A&M but a BCS bid is still within their grasp.  Big game Bob wants the trip to the championship game and he needs a win badly this week to ensure the chance.  This isn't good for coach Tommy Tubberville's Raiders.  Oklahoma enters this game as a 15 point favorite.  I'm taking the Sooners to win and cover 38-10.

In another south face-off, the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Austin to face the disappointing Texas Longhorns.  Okie Lite is 8-1 on the season, and 4-1 in conference play, and represent the best chance anyone has of winning the southern division of the Big XII conference other than OU or Tejas.  The whorns haven't played well at home, or on the road for that matter outside of a glorious afternoon at Gomer Pyle Stadium in Lincoln a few weeks ago.  The Cowboys open as a 6 point favorite.  I think they're going to roll Texas, who may well mail the rest of their season in.  I'm picking the fighting Picken's to win 41-17.
That's all I've got for this week.  I'm heading back to 8 hour shifts next week which should make it much easier to write.  Have a great weekend folks, unless you're fans of Mr Burns.
 

Week 10:Time to snap back

Toward the end of the Larry Smith era at Missouri the Tigers had reverted to the form they'd shown during the Woody Widenhoffer and Bob Stull years.  That means they were bad...really bad.  Larry was trying to figure out ways to keep morale up after the devastating losses would continue to pile up.  One time he gave every player a tennis ball so they'd remember to bounce back.  That seemed stupid enough but when he gave everyone rubber bands to wear around their wrists to remember to snap back I knew he was a dead man walking, and it probably was going to end badly in Columbia for him.  At that point we'd pretty much been terrible for the better part of 2 decades and I wondered if we'd ever be decent again.  I'd be lying if I didn't admit I was less than excited when I heard we'd hired Gary Pinkel.  Mainly because I'd never heard of Gary Pinkel.  Thankfully I was wrong and now I couldn't be happier to have him coaching my team.
Both the Tigers and I have to snap back this week.  They suffered their first loss of the season at Lincoln last week against the soon departing hicks and I once again lost more than I won against the spread with my predictions.  I went 4-2 straight up but on 2-3 against the spread.  For the year I'm 59-15 straight up but only a touch above water at 34-30 against the point spread.  So I'm hoping for better things from both of us this weekend, but mostly my Tigers.

Mizzou travels to Lubbock Saturday night on ABC's nationally televised game against the Red Raiders.  Tech is 4-4 on the season and 2-4 in conference play.  Last weekend they fell 45-27 to Texas A&M at College Station in a game that really wasn't that close.  Mike Leach no longer patrols the sideline for Tech which isn't particularly good news since Coach Pinkel seemed to have his number.  However, Tommy Tuberville has experienced a lot of growing pains and it appears that the Red Raiders bowl streak may well end this year.  Missouri only opens as a 4 1/2 point favorite and the crowd isn't going to be nearly as intimidating as it was last week in Bugtussel.  If I was a gambler this would be like taking money to me.  I'm going to pick the Tigers to get back into the win column this week and cover 31-17.
Something happened this year that no one forsaw and that's the rebirth of the Baylor football program.  The Bears, fresh off an upset of Texas last week in Austin travel north this weekend to Stillwater to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are 6-1 themselves.  Okie Light opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite in this one but I believe they'll do a bit better.  I'm taking the Cowboys to win and cover 35-27.

In lawrence this weekend it's the rumble at Mount Oread as the Colorado Buffalo's come to town to face the jayhawks for undisputed possession of 11th place in the conference.  Both teams are 0-4 in Big XII play and this represents their last best chance to avoid the cellar.  The Buff's open as a 9 point favorite.  I love to hate on kansas as much as anyone, but that line seems ridiculous to me.  Not that I think ku doesn't suck; they do, but so does Colorado and their dead man walking coach.  In a game where neither team has an offense or defense, I'm going to take the Pac 10's newest crown jewel to win but fail to cover.  Colorado wins 28-24.

It's back to grand times in Lincoln as their countrified version of the big red machine pulls up stakes and heads east for their final battle with Iowa State.  After their convincing win over the Tigers last weekend, hick nation is once again out in full force and predicting losses to the 7 or 8 teams in front of them as they march to their rightful destination in Glendale at the national championship game.  The corn open as 19 point favorites in this game and believe me, nothing would give me more pleasure than watching a repeat of last years game in Hooterville.  Unfortunately I don't see it happening.  Nebraska wins and covers 38-13.
Oh how the mighty have fallen this year.  In Manhattan, last years national champion runner's up the Texas Longhorns limp in with their 4-4 record to face the Wildcats who are still looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The whorns open as 4 point favorites in this game and while I'd like to pick the Cats, I think that UT has enough to pull this one out on the road, although I think it will be a nail biter.  I'm picking Texas 24-21.

The week closes out at College Station where the A&M Aggies play host to the Sooners who are still walking a bit stiff from their loss in Columbia a couple of weeks ago.  Texas A&M switched out to quarterback Ryan Tannehill last weekend and it paid off big as they swept past Texas Tech 45-27.  I feel safe saying this OU team is light years better than the Red Raiders, and the line opening at OU minus 3 1/2 looks like a license to print money.  The Sooners roll, 41-14.   
That's all I have for now.  I hope to get back to you Sunday with a recap of my Tigers getting back in the win column.  Have a great weekend!

Week 9 recap:Message board free week for me.

Tiger nation is in full meltdown mode today.  Gary Pinkel, Dave Yost and Dave Steckel are apparently back to being idiots that have no business coaching in a BCS conference and our players should have their scholarships revoked.  And if Mike Alden doesn't take care of this then by golly we're going to storm his house and run him out too.  God there are days when I hate a percentage of our fan base.  
Saturday afternoon in Lincoln, the Huskers jumped out to a 24-0 lead 12 minutes into the game and the Tigers were never able to get back into the contest.  Roy Helu rushed for 307 yards as the hicks were able to control the line of scrimmage, and the offensive line gave Blaine Gabbert no time to throw.  There is no way around it, it was a dominating effort by a pretty darned good husker team.  I made a trip to my favorite pay site and read the message board for about 3 minutes and realized I would spend no time there this week.  And I'm not even going going to think about heading over to Tigerboard.  Anyway, I was 4-2 straight up for the week but only 2-3 vs the spread.  (No line was given on kansas/ISU)  For the year I'm 59-15 straight up and 34-30 playing the odds.

As angry as Missouri fan is today, I can't begin to imagine what things are like on the Longhorn boards as Texas dropped to 4-4 and 2-3 in conference play following a 30-22 loss to Baylor in Austin.  The Bears didn't do anything particularly well yesterday.  They passed for a little over 200 yards and rushed for a little over 100 and simply stuck around and waited for the Longwhorns to implode in the 4th quarter.  Yes, this is another game that I completely whiffed on but it's hard to hate on Baylor.  I can only imagine how much dancing was going on in the streets of Waco.  Or would have been going on if Baptists danced.  
The game that I split on this week was in College Station where the Aggies hosted Texas Tech as a 7 point favorite.  I thought A&M would win but fail to cover, but they drilled the Red Raiders 45-27.  The Tigers have to hope that A&M is coming into it's own as they host the huskers in a couple of weeks.

Going into the games I picked correctly this week, one occurred in Norman where the Sooners hosted Colorado.  OU came in as a 24 point favorite and you just knew that they'd be in a foul mood after dropping last weeks game against the Tigers.  Oklahoma used a 26 point 2nd quarter to end this game at the half as they rolled 43-10.
When I began making my predictions for last week, the Oklahoma State team still had their star receiver, Justin Blackmon on tap for this week.  However, a DUI arrest put him out of commission.  Fortunately for the Cowboys, they had a trip to Manhattan to face the Wildcats who are generally always undermanned.  Brandon Weeden still threw for almost 300 yards and a couple of touchdown as Okie State won and covered 24-14.

The final game of the week was in Ames where the Cyclones played host to a kansas team that may be among the worst in conference history this year.    There was no line on this game since the beaks were down to their 3rd string quarterback.  It was easily ku's best defensive effort of the year, but in the end, the result was the same as the jayhawks dropped their 11th straight conference game 28-16.  It was win # 5 for the clones as they hope to go to consecutive bowls under Paul Rhodes.  They close with 2 games at home and just one on the road, which is at Colorado so you'd think they were a shoe in.  Unfortunately for ISU, their 2 home games are against Nebraska next week and closing their season against Missouri.  For kansas fans the season can't end quickly enough.  heh.
That's all I've got for this week.  There are some interesting games next weekend involving some unlikely players as Baylor visits Oklahoma State, and Colorado travels to lawrence as those 2 teams battle for uncontested possession of 11th place in the conference.      
    

Week 9:The next "biggest game of the year"http://www.blogger.com/

It's a by-product of success.  Every time you win a big game, it makes the next game even bigger and adds more pressure to the coaches and players.  It's not like this week wasn't going to huge to begin with.  For the last 4 years the winner of the Missouri/Nebraska game has won the division and the right to be the sacrificial lamb in the conference championship game.  Well, make it # 5 with a bullet.  Mizzou travels north and puts their 7-0 record on the line against the 6-1 Huskers.  The Tigers will be without their best defensive tackle, Dominique Hamilton who suffered a broken ankle in Saturday nights 36-27 win over # 2 ranked Oklahoma.  The hicks bounced back from a home loss to Texas to out gun Oklahoma State 51-41 in Stillwater.  Corn nation has actually fared better on the road the last couple of years and some of their players, Nyles Paul in particular, not to mention head coach Bo Pelini have made disparaging comments about their fans.  Nebraska opens as an 8 point favorite in this one and I don't buy it for a minute.  The game opened at 7 but apparently money has been pouring in on the nubs.  I'm guessing a lot of farmers have suddenly taken out loans on their combines.  Despite the fact that I've admitted to being a shameless homer, I just have no idea what the odds makers and betters are thinking.  I'm taking the Tigers to not only cover, but to win outright.  MU 31-21.

Columbia wasn't the only program that was celebrating homecoming last weekend. A few miles to the west of here the jayhawks were taking on Texas A&M, Missouri's victim the week before in College Station Saturday night in larry.  While the crowd may not have been quite as large as the one in CoMo, there's something to be said for the ability to sit most anywhere you want.  This week the Crimson and Blue wrecking crew travel north to face Iowa State who pulled the upset of the week, and maybe the year last Saturday in a 28-21 win over Texas in Austin.  There hasn't been a line established for this game as of Tuesday.  I don't know if it's because of some Iowa State injury I haven't heard about of if the gamblers just plain forgot this game was being played.  At any rate, I'm going to predict the beaks fall to 0-4 in the conference as the Cyclones win 38-13.

In Austin, the bowl eligible Bears from Baylor visit the not yet bowl eligible Texas Longhorns.  It's like we've entered some sort of parallel universe as the whorns sit at 4-3 and suffered that home loss to Iowa State.  Texas fans being Texas fans, there has been some rumbling that Mack Brown may have lost his edge and they might need to replace him.  Mack himself has told his assistants that their jobs could be in jeopardy if they can't get the team playing with more emotion.  The fact that Texas was in the NC game last year doesn't really mean much to UT fans.  The athletic department at UT rakes in over 120 million a year and they aren't really familiar with the term rebuilding.  Texas opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite and I'm thinking they get off the 2 game home skid Saturday and win 38-24.   If Baylor was to pull off the upset here, and I certainly believe they're capable, we'll be hearing some major bitching from the Longhorn not so faithful.

Speaking of coaches and hot seats, Dan Hawkins makes his last trip to Norman to face a pissed off Sooner team in his farewell tour.  Expect the Hawk to be terminated before the last fan leaves the stadium in their final game, and really why wouldn't he be?  Meanwhile the Sooners will still be smarting from their nationally televised loss at the hands of my Tigers last weekend and you just know that Bob Stoops and company are going to take it out on someone.  Big game Bob has no problem running the score up on an over matched opponent as they try to get back in the national championship picture.  Oklahoma opens as a 24 point favorite in this one and they may cover that before the 1st quarter ends.  Pick OU in a rout, 59-7.  They will have one less rabid fan following the game this week so maybe they can dedicate the game to him.   Boomer Sooner.

Over in Manhattan the 5-2 K State Wildcats have another opportunity to get to bowl eligibility this week as they host Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys dreams of an unbeaten season were shattered last week in a 51-41 loss to hick nation.  Early Tuesday morning they got more bad news when star receiver Justin Blackmon was arrested for speeding and suspected driving under the influence as he was returning from the Monday night football game in Dallas.  The Cowboys open as a 6 point favorite in this one and I'm really tempted to call for the upset.  However, the Wildcats just aren't very good yet and I'm not ready to call for Carson Coffman to pull off a Taylor Martinez performance this weekend.  Look for the Cowboys to rally and win 41-24.

The week wraps up in College Station as the Aggies play host to the Red Raiders from Texas Tech.  Both  teams should be feeling better about themselves after wins last week over perennial powers Colorado and kansas.  A&M opens as a 7 point favorite in this one and the winning coach will feel the temperature of the seat he's on to cool a bit, but just a bit.  I'm going to take the Aggies to win, but fail to cover 24-21.
That's all I have for this week.  It should be a beautiful weekend in Kansas City and my honey do list is long.  I'll probably have to DVR the Missouri game and just catch some scores during the afternoon while I go out and mutilate some bushes in the yard.  Have a good weekend folks and we'll talk next Sunday.

Week 5: Reflecting on the non con schedule.

I think a week between the non con schedule and the conference opener is just about perfect.  It gives some guys that are dinged up a little time to heal and the coaches time to look at film of upcoming opponents.  It also gives we fans a chance to kick back and relax, or in my case spend a weekend on the honey do list.  (Didn't we just wash those windows last year?)  It's been an interesting pre season starting with the annual win over Illannoy at the dome.  It's a series that needed to end though and I'm looking forward to contests with Arizona State the next 2 years.  I do kind of fear that with the conference schedule expanding that we'll see less of those kind of games however.  And I get it.  If you're going to be playing teams like OU, Texas, Okie Lite and Tech every year, just how difficult does the non conference schedule need to be?

So what did we learn from our first 4 games?  Well, we may not have a Danario Alexander, but Michael Egnew and TJ Moe are pretty darned good.  Toss in what could be a healthy Jerrell Jackson as a possible deep threat and the passing game could be above average in what appears to be a Big XII conference that is a bit down from previous years.  We appear to have 4 running backs capable of breaking off big plays if given the smallest of seams.  Blaine Gabbert seems to stay in the pocket a bit longer and seems to be spreading the ball out a bit more, but I'd still like to see a few more throws heading Wes Kemps way.  And the defense has been light years ahead of last season.  Carl Gettis and Andrew Gachkar in particular have just torn things up so far, and Dom Hamilton has been solid in the middle of the line.  And what needs to be said about the Smith Brothers, Madison, Sam and company on the outside?  You have to give DC Dave Steckel a lot of credit for the improvements he's made.  The Big XII seems more wide open this year.  Texas seems to be unable to rush the football, OU has been in tight games outside of taking Florida State to the woodshed in week 2, and Nebraska is only going to be as good as their running game will take them.  I don't see anyone as a clear cut favorite this year, and the Tigers have as much of a chance to break out as any of the teams I've mentioned.       

It's been a rough year for me picking against the spread.  I'm just 16-19 there and I'm beginning to think that it's at least partially due to increased parity in college football.  Oh, I can get the winners as a pretty darned good record of 37-5 should show, but nothing appears to be a slam dunk this year.  That being said, I'm going to keep making my picks and taking my medicine on Sunday mornings.  The week starts early when Texas A&M travels north to Stillwater Thursday night to take on the Cowboys.  Both teams are 3-0 but A&M seems to have some problems while OSU has throttled 2 of their 3 opponents so far.  The Cowboys open as 3 point favorites in this one but I don't think it's going to be that close.  I think that Jerrod Johnson indeed has some shoulder problems and it's going to be tough for the Aggies to keep up with teams that can score during conference play.  I'm taking the Cowboys to win and cover easily, 31-17.

Down in Waco, the Baylor Bears host kansas this weekend.  It could be a matchup of biblical proportions as Turner Gill takes his no swearing policy into the home of the poster children of the Bible Belt.  The Bears open as 9 1/2 point favorites in this one.  The beaks have been poison for me this year on their way to their 2-2 record.  I think Baylor pulls away in the 2nd half of this one and covers, 34-21.  And like most Missouri fans, all I can say is "Go Baptists".
Out west in Boulder the Buffs wind up their non conference schedule by hosting the Georgia Bulldogs.  Now normally I'd say this would be a blow out, but this ain't the Dawgs of 10, 5 or even 3 years ago.  Georgia currently sits at 1-3 with consecutive losses to South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State.  This is just unacceptable for their fans.  They come in as a 4 1/2 point favorite on the road.  I think they'll be able to turn things around a bit and pull this one out, but fail to cover.  I'm picking Georgia with a late score to win 21-17.

Up in Ames, the Cyclones host Texas Tech, who comes in as a 7 1/2 point favorite.  Both teams are 0-1 in conference play and will be hungry for a win.  I think Paul Rhodes is a very good coach but he's going to get schooled Saturday night by one of the best.  I'm taking Tech to win and cover, 31-14.
The biggest game in the conference is in Dallas this week as Texas and Oklahoma get together for the Red River Shootout.  Despite offers from Jerry Jones, the game is going to remain in the Cotton Bowl until 2015, assuming of course that the stadium doesn't collapse.  Both teams have looked extremely beatable so far this year, although the Sooners have remained unbeaten.  OU comes in as a 4 point favorite.  I'm not thinking this is enough.  Oklahoma looked great a couple of weeks ago when they dismantled a pretty good Florida State team.  I think they bring their A game Saturday and coast, 35-17.
There are a couple of pretty good games out of conference this weekend as Alabama is at home against the Gators from Florida.  This features the 2 best coaches in the game in Nick Saban and Urban Meier.  The Tide opens as a 9 1/2 point favorite in this one.  Despite being in a dogfight against Arkansas last weekend, I think Bama comes in focused and puts this away by halftime.  I'm taking Saban and company, 34-21.

Out west, Stanford travels north to play the Oregon Ducks.  Both teams are 4-0, and 1-0 in the Pac 10, soon to be Pac 12.  Oregon is a 7 point favorite at home.  Both squads have a pretty impressive resume so far this year.  Stanford's wins include Notre Dame, Wake Forest and a UCLA team that blasted Texas last week.  Oregon opened the season with a 72-0 win over New Mexico and has followed up with impressive road wins over Tennessee and Arizona State.  I'm going with the home team to win and cover here, as I think Oregon wins 41-27 in a shootout.  And of course the main reason to even look at this game will always be the Duck Cheerleaders.
That's all I have for now.  I may watch some of the A&M/Okie light game tonight but I'm sort of saving up my week night football for next weekend when K State hosts hick nation at Bill Snyder Family Stadium & dry cleaners.  Good luck to your team this week and we'll see how I did next Sunday or so. 

The light at the end of the tunnel

And no, it's not a train coming this time.  We're now about a week away from my favorite time of the year.  It's almost football season.  Pretty soon we'll be reading endless articles about the new offensive strategy at Texas Tech now that they are without the pirate; why Nebraska will have a better defense even though they lost the best tackle in college football, and if Blaine Gabbert will be able to function without the security blanket known as Danario Alexander.   And I, for one am going to love every minute of it.  It's time for for uninformed fans such as myself to begin looking at depth charts, schedules and injury reports to make baseless predictions on how the season will play out.  In other words, I'm getting back into my element.
Today I'm going to talk about the southern division of the Big XII which is in it's final year of division play and offer a few useless predictions based on schedule and returning players.  Since I usually go from last to first, let's start out in Waco with the perennial last place team, the Baylor Bears.

The Bears will return quarterback Robert Griffin to the team as well as the purest cheerleaders in the conference.  I expected them to end their bowl drought last season but the injury to Griffin changed that.  The non con schedule should provide them with 3 wins, minus a Sept. 18th trip to TCU.  The challenge is finding 3 more wins during the conference season.  Home games against kansas, K State and Oklahoma State give them a reasonable chance and with a road trip to Colorado, I believe this is the year they earn their first bowl bid since 1994.
Oklahoma State had a great 2 year run, but now faces a major rebuilding job and now Mike Gundy gets a chance to prove he really is a man.  Their schedule is about as soft as it gets with the big name in the non con being Washington State which has won a whopping 3 games over the last few seasons.  They also get kansas, Kansas State and Baylor at home so they definitely have a punchers chance at making a bowl game.

In Lubbock, the Red Raiders enter the post Mike Leach era.  They return a lot of experience on the offensive side of the ball, where new coach Tommy Tuberville will have to find a way to utilize their talents in a manner he's really not used to.  Tommy is more of a defensive specialist and the Red Raiders don't return a lot of talent there.  I think Tuberville was a really good hire and the schedule breaks nicely for them.  I expect the Red Raiders to make a bowl game, but they aren't going to be world beaters this year.
At College Station, the Aggies of Texas A&M enter the season with high expectations and I'm really not sure why.  They went 6-7 last year and now, with an experienced quarterback their fans expect them to challenge for a division title since Texas and OU both lost a lot from last year.  Sorry Aggies, but I just don't see it.  The schedule is not terrible, but imo Mike Sherman has never shown himself to be a dominant coach.  I think the Aggies have a good chance at a bowl game, but it will be a disappointing season to a fan base that is 2nd only to Nebraska when it comes to overestimating their talent.

So let's get into the only 2 teams that really matter.  The University of Texas played in the national championship game last year, falling to Alabama.  They could argue, (with good reason) that the game could have ended differently had they not lost Colt McCoy early.  I personally watched them literally dismantle my Tigers in Columbia and they were nothing short of a machine.  They lost a lot of talent, but hell, it's Texas.  They always have talent.  I expect the division to come down to the Red River shootout, just like always.  The horns will make a nice bowl game but the season will fall a bit short of their expectations.  The fans will bitch, yada, yada, yada.  I hate Texas.
But if you think I hate Texas, believe me, I struggle writing about the cocksuckers from Norman.  "Big Game" Bob Stoops and the Sooners had something of a non OU season last year, and all world quarterback Sam Bradford will soon be making St. Louis Rams fans wishing they had drafted someone else with their first round draft choice but they are loaded again this year.  I see people picking them to go undefeated.  I'm not that sold on them, but I believe they return to the double digit win type of season they are used to this year, and a return to the NC game certainly isn't out of the question.

So, my early prediction for the south finish goes like this.  I expect OU to return to what they consider to be their rightful place as south champions.  I think the Longhorns will finish 2nd and both teams will make very good bowl games.  However, I think neither will make the national championship game as someone from the ACC or Big East will sneak into the championship game against whoever wins the SEC.  After that you could probably draw straws, but the final 4, in my opinion will probably be Texas Tech, A&M, Baylor and Okie Lite.  All 6 teams may make bowl games and once again we'll hear about how the north does nothing more than drag the conference down.       
If you're familiar with the term SSDD, then you know exactly what I'm talking about.  Next week we'll take a look at the north, or the "have nots" if you prefer.   Stay cool folks.

So, who blinks first?

The last week has been an especially wild week in this, the craziest off season I can ever remember.  The Big XII meetings in Kansas City started with a lot of questions about Dan Beebe and his "who's on the plane" question on Tuesday and ended up on Friday with a report that the Pac 10 was ready to annex the Big XII south and/or Colorado.

So still really all we know is that sometime in the future is that the Big Ten is planning on expanding and Missouri and Nebraska may be or maybe already have been semi-invited.  (Why don't you 2 guys fill out an application for membership to the Big Ten.  wink*wink)  We also know, per Chip Brown anyway that the Pac 10 has offered to take 6 teams from a weakened Big XII to form a 16 team conference with an east and west divisions.  We know, once again through Chip that while the Pac 10 wants Colorado, Texas prefers to bring Baylor along and Texas always gets their way.  Right?    But since Texas is so benevolent, they've decided to give Missouri and Nebraska until Friday at 5:00 pm to sign a loyalty oath to the conference or Texas will take their ball, their brothers and head west.
But not so damn fast their longwhorns.  While it appears that the Pac 10 indeed plans to expand, apparently they have no intention of taking Baylor.  They also appear committed to starting up their own Pac 10 channel which would preclude Texas starting their own cable venture. 

So exactly what is shaking down here and what do I expect to happen within the next couple of days?  Pretty much nothing.  I don't think Jim Delaney has much or any interest in Deloss Dodds bluster.   I don't believe that Missouri or Nebraska will respond in any manner.  Why should they?  Where are the threats to the Texas 6?  Dodds is used to getting his way but this time he may well have jumped in over his head.  He brought his 6 shooter to the gunfight only to find out the other guy has a rocket launcher and is just as devious as he is.  Right now he's looking at a conference that could well lose 3 members from the northern division within the next few months, if not days and it's possible he's going to have to negotiate a deal for not only Texas, but A&M, Tech and Baylor who may or may not be hanging onto his legs hoping the parachute will carry them all to safety.
And what happens with the 4 members that appear to be left out of these discussions?  Iowa State has some of the greatest fans in the country but absolutely nothing that would appeal to any conference in what could be a suddenly changing landscape.  K State and kansas may or may not be joined at the hip and kansas has it's own set of problems to deal with such as the current FBI anal probe going on in lawrence.  Karma is indeed a bitch isn't it?  This broke at about as bad a time as it could have for the beaks.

So what are my feelings?  I think that probably Mizzou and corn nation have some unofficial word that they will be invited to join the Big Ten, where Nebraska offers name recognition and Missouri and it's 6 million citizens can pay their own way from day one.  For me, after the last 3 years, I have to say I'm ready to cut bait.  I'd sign no loyalty oath and if it means we wind up playing in Laramie on a Thursday night game then so be it.  I'm sick of Texas, sick of Oklahoma, Big XII favoritism, bowl snubs and the idiot that was put in charge of this conference, Dan Beebe.  I have only one thing to say on my way out, and I imagine you can guess what it is.

One of the first signs of spring is coming.

No, I'm not talking about some robin showing up in my yard.  They apparently have their butts parked down south somewhere still.  I can't even coax a sparrow to show up at the bird feeder right now.  What I'm talking about is spring football which starts up in a few short days, which culminates in one of my favorite events of the year; the "PowerMizzou Black and Gold Tailgate" which will be taking place on April 17th.  I'll absolutely get into that some more later but right now, just for fun, let's take a  way too early look at some of the teams that will effect the success or lack of for my favorite team.
So starting out today I'll take a look at the south division of the conference or as we like to call it, the have's.  4 of the 6 teams reside in Texas, home of spring football at the high school level.  We're 2 weeks away from basketball conference championship in Missouri which lead up to the state tournament and they've already determined their state champions, which tells you all you need to know about the food chain down south.  Can't have your star quarterback miss a snap because he's playing forward on the basketball team now can you?

Last years southern champion and national championship game sacrificial lamb was the Texas Longhorns.  They lost starting quarterback Colt McCoy early in the game so we'll never know for sure if they could have broken the stranglehold the SEC has had for the last few years.  On the upside, at least they didn't lose to Florida.  Man I'm glad I don't have to listen to the Tim Teabow lovefest any longer. The 'horns lost 5 starters on offense including McCoy and star receiver Jordan Shipley who finally completed his 11th year of eligibility.  They only lost 3 starters on defense and brought in the third ranked recruiting class in the country.  And to top it off they've already landed 11 recruits for next year.  It must suck to be them.  Oh, and they also sport some of the finest looking cheerleaders known to man.  They've really pretty much surpassed Oklahoma as the power in the south, (sorry Sooner fans, but it's true) but they have some question marks next year.

The other 600 lb gorilla down south is the aforementioned Oklahoma Sooners.  They suffered a ver un-Oklahoma like 8-5 last year including an ass pounding of epic proportions in Lubbock to the departed Mike Leach and the Red Raiders.  Sam Bradford spent most of the year sidelined with shoulder injuries but they did manage to get some quality time in for his backup, Landry Jones.  I think that's going to pay off in a big way for them this year.  They lost 4 starters each on offense and defense but were starting 2 freshmen on the offensive line which I expect to be much better this season.  Oklahoma is used to winning and expected to be much better last year than they were.  "Big game" Bob Stoops managed to win a bowl game and as usual, they brought in a top 10 recruiting class.  They also have one of the spookiest fan bases I've ever been around.

Down in Lubbock it's a new start as former head coach and Pirate deluxe Mike Leach is out and is being replaced by Tommy Tubberville.  The Red Raiders return 8 starters on offense, including every skill position player but must replace 5 on defense and just as importantly, their defensive coordinator.  Their recruiting class was ranked 41st in the nation, which will in no way allow them to compete with the Big 2 in the long run.  However, Tubberville was a very good coach during his time at Auburn and is considered to be something of a defensive wizard.  He has the makings of a team that could made a run at the south this year and could absolutely improve things on the recruiting front next year assuming they could get to 9 wins this season.  A lot of questions here, but I think they made the biggest splash in the conference as far as coaching hires went.

Following a somewhat disappointing end to what was their most anticipated year in recent memory, the Oklahoma State Cowboys go into full rebuilding mode this year.  They lose 7 starters on offense and must adapt to losing QB Zac Robinson and wideout Dez Bryant, as well as most of their skill positions.  To make matters worse they'll be looking to replace 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball.  It appears that the 2010 season could be a long one for Okie Lite and I can see a few blowups coming from head coach and resident psychopath Mike "I'm a man" Gundy. 

One of the biggest surprises, at least to me was the resurgence in College Station.  Now you may say, and with good cause that a 6-7 record including 3-5 in conference is hardly a resurgence, but I fully expected the Aggies to be hunting a new coach this off season, especially after the 4 touchdown throttling they received at the hands of a mediocre Arkansas team in week 4.  However, Mike Sherman managed to put 6 wins together and get themselves the bowl game that would have belonged to kansas had they not gone into that little 7 game losing streak to close the season.  heheh.  A&M loses only 2 starters on defense but must replace 5 from last years offense.  They did manage the 16th ranked recruiting class in the country which was good enough for 3rd in the Big XII.  I still think that Sherman is a buffoon, and I don't think another 6 win campaign will buy another year for him, but he has them poised for some legitimate success in the future.

I thought it was all there for Baylor last year.  They had one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the conference, lots of experience and a schedule that looked conducive to qualifying for their first bowl game since 1994.  This certainly looked to be the case when they opened the season with a 24-21 win at Wake Forest.  However, it all came crashing down quickly after quarterback Robert Griffin went down with a knee injury.   The Bears struggled mightily after that to a 4-8 record with the season highlight being a 40-32 win at Missouri in week 9. #$@&^^  Their recruiting was mediocre at best this year and I'm afraid that Art Briles, who I think is a pretty decent coach is going to see the handwriting on the wall and bail for a better job as soon as something comes available.  It's just going to be almost impossible to recruit well enough in Waco to compete in the tough Big XII south and they'd probably have been better served if they'd wound up in a different conference back when the SWC was disbanded.

So just looking at what each team has coming back, my initial guess for the finish next year pretty much mimics the way it's been for most of the last decade.  I think it will be OU's turn to finish first and win the division, followed by Texas, Texas Tech, A&M, Baylor and Oklahoma State.  What I do think will be different this year is that the south team that makes the conference championship game isn't going to be an automatic 3 touchdown favorite in that contest.  For a change, I think that 2 teams in the north have a legitimate chance to end the south domination this year and that's what I'll talk about next time.  Have a good week.