Week 13 recap:Rivalry week rewind

It's one of the best weeks of the football season.  Up there with the Red River shootout, bowl week and the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.  Rivals get together to close out their season in a contest that means everything to each of them, regardless of each others record.  USC-Notre Dame, Auburn-Alabama, Bedlam, the list just goes on.  Three years ago, Missouri and kansas met in the first Border War game held at Arrowhead, ranked 2nd and 4th in the country.  It was the highest rated regular season game of the year, propelled both teams to great bowl games that year and high hopes for both programs futures.  However, since the close of the 2007 season, the teams have headed in somewhat different directions.  Missouri has won 28 games since and has reached double digit wins in 2 of the 3 seasons.  kansas has won 16 games, lost 16 of their last 19, finished last in a weak north division twice and as you can see from the photo, pretty much embarrassed their university with poor attendance; make that piss poor attendance in a game held 45 minutes from their campus.
To see how far this has fallen, we rolled into Arrowhead Stadium yesterday at 10:00 am for the 11:30 kickoff in a morning game broadcast on Fox Sports.  Missouri opened as a 28 point favorite, and despite the records, this is almost always a game that comes down to whoever has the ball last.  But not yesterday.  Missouri jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and 21-0 by halftime.  They held the jayhawks to 141 yards of offense and dominated both lines of scrimmage.  Frankly, the game was never in doubt, and while some would say it makes for a boring game, there's a lot to love about destroying your rival.  The Tigers opened as a 28 point favorite, but I didn't believe they would cover.  Since the final margin was in fact 28, the game was a push and didn't figure in, on what was a pretty mediocre week for me.  I wound up 5-1 straight up, pushing me to 70-20 for the year, but 2-3 against the spread and 39-42 for the season.  I need some luck this week as a few regular season games as well as conference title games remain to be played.

The weekend began on Thanksgiving evening in the Big XII where Texas A&M traveled to cross state rival Texas, attempting to gain a share of the south title, and the horns hoping to salvage something, anything from a lost season.  The Aggies opened up as 4 1/2 point favorites but I really thought that UT had already packed it in for the season.  I was correct for a change.  The whorns tried to make a game of it, but A&M running back Cyrus Gray rushed for 223 yards yards and 2 touchdown as the Aggies held on to win, 24-17.

A game that I whiffed on completely happened Friday in Lincoln where corn nation opened as 24 point favorites over a Colorado team that had enjoyed something of a revival since Dan Hawkins was fired.  I thought the Buffs would make more of a game of it, but the hicks were firing on all cylinders, despite losing Taylor Martinez and Niles Paul.  Nebraska covered and won 45-17.  Next week the tractors will be fueled up and heading south as a combine caravan heads toward Dallas and Jerry World for the final Big XII title game against Oklahoma, who won in something of an upset their selves in a 47-41semi upset of Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Had the Cowboys won they would have taken sole possession of the south and would have gotten their rematch with the corn.  But it wasn't to be.  Okie Lite reminds me of the 2008 Tigers in that they can score at will, but play absolutely no defense when they face an offense with a pulse.  Like Missouri, they'll sit at home with their 10-2 record and hope for the best when bowl selection Sunday captures all of our attention a week from today. 

In a couple of games that fall into the "who gives a shit" catagory, the Kansas State Wildcats played a surprisingly tough North Texas team that really had nothing to look forward to except possibly closing out with a win against a team from a BCS conference team.  It was the Mean Green's final game at Fouts Field and apparently not much of a turnout.  K State finished the season at 7-5 and may well be appearing in the first ever Pinstripe bowl played in balmy New York City at some point over the holidays, for some unknown reason.  Texas Tech also went to 7-5 with a 35-20 win over the Houston Cougars.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Raiders win up in Houston this year at the Texas Bowl.
So, it's an off week for most of college football, except for a few remaining games and some conference championship match ups.  We'll take a look at those later this week.  In the meantime, have a great week.   

Week 12:Style points or hanging on by a thread.

There is very little in-between this week as we roll toward the end of the season.  The seven Big XII teams that have qualified for bowl games are now playing for style points and bowl positioning.  4 more teams still have at least a punchers chance of getting to six wins, and only one poor miserable bastard of an athletic department has a program that has no hope of getting to six wins and very little of getting to four.  Any guesses who I might be talking about?   Well of course, it's my 2nd favorite team next to the Oakland Raiders.  Every Tiger fan realizes I mean the kansas jayhawks.  The last 2 weeks have been quite kind to the peckerheads as they rallied from 28 points down 2 weeks ago to pull out their first conference win in over a year against the Buffalo's of Colorado.  They then backed that up with a solid defensive performance against hick nation last week as they fell, but a much shorter distance than expected, 20-3.  It's senior day in Larry and Oklahoma State is coming to town to send off a graduating class that just 3 short years ago left Miami as Orange Bowl champs.  Since that day they've won 16 games in 3 years.  9-1 Okie Lite comes in as a 24 point favorite.  I see no way the beaks keep it that close, but they've probably provided me with more losses than anyone this year.  However, I'm going to do what Tiger fans do and lead with my heart.  Take the Cowboys to cover and win, 48-13.

My guys travel north to Ames this weekend to face the Cyclones, who are as desperate as anyone in the country.  The Clones blew a golden opportunity to qualify for their 2nd bowl game in a row last week as they fell 34-14 in Boulder.  They've lost starting quarterback Austin Arnaud for the season in the process and HAVE to win this weeks game if they're to continue practicing next week.  Missouri got back on track a bit last weekend as they withstood a 4th quarter rally by the K State Wildcats and hung on for a 38-28 win in the final game at Faurot Field for this season.  The Tigers have been devastated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and plagued by inconsistancy on the offensive side.  The Tigers open as 11 point favorites but I don't expect the Cyclones to go down without a fight.  I'm picking Mizzou to win, but fail to cover, 31-24 on a late touchdown run from Kendial Lawrence.   

In Waco, two teams that already know they are going to be playing after Thanksgiving are matching up as Baylor hosts Oklahoma.  The Sooners have to win this game to make their contest against cross state rival OSU mean something as far as the title game to be played in Jerry World.  Baylor has a chance to win it's 8th game and take a trip to someplace a little more exotic than Houston for the Texas Bowl.   OU opens as an 8 point favorite in this game, and really just needs a win.  However, Bob Stoops will still be trying to make a statement going into next weeks road trip to Stillwater.  I'm looking for the Sooners to win and cover, 42-20.
Another team that has already qualified for the post season was the team that I watched last weekend in Columbia.  The Wildcats travel west to Boulder to face a Colorado team that won it's first conference game last weekend against Iowa State.  This had to be a good sign for interim head coach Brian Cabral, who would like to have the job.  The fact that he could probably be had fairly cheaply is another.  The Buffs need to close out with a win this week and next at Nebraska to qualify for a bowl game.  As much as I'd love to see that, I just don't believe they have a prayer.  For some reason, there's no line for this game but I see Bill Snyder going for win # 7 and a chance to move up in the bowl pecking order.  K State 34, Colorado 24.

Another team that needs to win out to be eligible for post season play surprisingly resides in Austin, where the 4-6 Longhorns host the 4-5 Florida Atlantic Owls.  The Owls have won 3 straight game, but is a streak over Florida International, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Lafayette all that impressive?  I think not.  UT meanwhile is on a 4 game losing streak that includes Iowa State, K State and Baylor.  Both the team and the fans appear to have mailed in the season but this game still has to be played.  Texas opens as a 21 point favorite in this showdown and I feel like they might, just might pull a little bit of self respect out and attempt to make a run at a bowl game.  God knows they could use they extra practice.  It probably won't matter much since they'll also need to win next week at home against A&M, but I do expect them to cover this Saturday.  I'm taking the whorns, 38-14.  

Yet another team that needs a win this weekend is Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders sit at 5-5 with 2 remaining non conference games to go.  The easiest of the two happens this weekend as they host Weber State from the "Is that really a" Conference.  All you need to know about Weber State is that this is their season finale as they only play 11 games.  No line on this game either, but I'm picking Tech to get their 6th win this week, with a score in the 41-21 range.

Probably the best game of the week is in College Station where a suddenly resurgent Aggies team goes for win number 8 against 9-1 and likely north representative Nebraska.   A&M has won 3 straight games since they hit their low point of the season, a 30-9 loss at home to Missouri while Nebraska sits at 9-1 but has struggled the last two weeks against Iowa State and kansas.  Hick nation opens as a 2 1/2 point favorite this week, and maybe I'm calling this one with my heart instead of my head, but I'm taking the Aggies to pull the upset and win 31-27 late. 
That's about all I've got for this week.  I did want to say thanks to those who've been reading this.  This is my 100th post.  I've been somewhat amazed at the number of hits this has been receiving.  If you get a spare few minutes, I hope you'll stop by my website at www.merlinsedge.com  Thanks and we'll talk again on Sunday.

Week 10 recap:Waterloo, Appomattox and Lubbock?

History is full of monumental victories.  With every one of those comes a monumental defeat.  I've always defended Coach Pinkel as a man that I was proud to have in charge of my adopted team.  I will continue to support GP in spite of last night, but I've also thought if he had a major fault, it was the amount of loyalty he's shown to his assistant coaches.  It's apparent that a combination of things is threatening to tank the Tigers season and they have to be laid at the feet of offensive coordinator David Yost.  Yes, Blaine Gabbert suffered his 2nd consecutive bad game going 12-30 for less than 100 yards, although there were several dropped passes.  We appear to lack a guy that can stretch the defense, but you know what?  Good coordinators adjust their offense to fit the talent and we've not seen that.  The Tigers did rush for 260 yards, but most of that was in the first half.  And if you were looking for a season MVP, allow me to nominate Dominique Hamilton.  Since Dom went down in the OU game, the Tigers defense which had been so good against the run has floundered which has put more pressure on the pass defense.  Yet, that wasn't the cause of the loss last night as the Tigers scored exactly 0 points after intermission, although the inability to get off the field was a contributor.  To continue to improve, I'm afraid that Coach Pinkel is going to have to address some deficiencies in the coaching staff.   Next week Missouri hosts it's final home game against Kansas State, in a game that suddenly appears to be entirely loosable.  Tech travels to Norman to face a pissed off Sooner squad that is 30-0 in it's last 30 home games.

It was one of those Waterloo weekends for me also as I went 2-4 for the week and a hideous 1-5 against the spread.  For the year I'm 61-17 straight up but once again sitting at .500 with a 35-35 record against Vegas.
The only game I was completely successful in the week happened in Stillwater, as the Oklahoma State Cowboys ignored the fact that they were merely 7 1/2 point favorites as they routed the Baylor Bears 55-28.  Okie Lite now has to be considered the favorite to win the south as next week they take their 8-1 record to Austin to face the suddenly pedestrian Texas Longhorns.  Baylor is at home to face a Texas A&M squad that has discovered new life.
In Ames, it was hoped, at least by Missouri fans that the Cyclones could pull another upset over corn nation.  The hicks came in as 19 1/2 point favorites but it took an interception of a 2 point conversion attempt to allow them to escape with a 31-30 win.  Next up for the huskers is a date at home with the university of kansas while the 'Clones travel to Colorado.
Another loss for me happened in of all places lawrence as the jawhawks erupted for 35 4th quarter point to overtake Colorado 52-45 despite being installed as 9 point underdogs.  If Dan Hawkins was allowed to ride home on the plane it's a travesty of justice.

Another coach whose seat just went up another 50 degrees is in Austin after the Longwhorns fell to 4-5 on the season after losing 39-14 to Kansas State.  There are schools where a rebuilding year would be considered acceptable following an appearance in the national championship game the previous season.  However, the University of Texas isn't one of those places.  Things don't get any easier for UT as Oklahoma State comes to town next week, while the Wildcats will attempt to take over 2nd place in the north when they travel to Columbia.

At College Station it appears that Mike Sherman will retain his job for another year as the Aggies upset the Oklahoma Sooners 33-19.  A&M is now bowl eligible at 6-3 with a good chance to reach 8 or 9 wins with trip to Baylor and Texas and a home date with a Nebraska squad that despite it's record hasn't shown itself to be unbeatable by any means.
That's all I've got for this week.  I'm going to take a couple of days off to get some work on my new web site that will be up and running within a few weeks.  In case you'd like to stop by and see how things are progressing, just travel to www.merlinsedge.com    My Tiger blog will continue here, but there are other things I enjoy talking about and that will be more of a focus there.  There will also be a shopping site where you'll be able to purchase items that may be useful as well as many that will be nothing short of obscure.  Some interesting games to talk about and we'll be doing just that around Thursday or Friday.  Have a great week.   
       

Week 9:The next "biggest game of the year"http://www.blogger.com/

It's a by-product of success.  Every time you win a big game, it makes the next game even bigger and adds more pressure to the coaches and players.  It's not like this week wasn't going to huge to begin with.  For the last 4 years the winner of the Missouri/Nebraska game has won the division and the right to be the sacrificial lamb in the conference championship game.  Well, make it # 5 with a bullet.  Mizzou travels north and puts their 7-0 record on the line against the 6-1 Huskers.  The Tigers will be without their best defensive tackle, Dominique Hamilton who suffered a broken ankle in Saturday nights 36-27 win over # 2 ranked Oklahoma.  The hicks bounced back from a home loss to Texas to out gun Oklahoma State 51-41 in Stillwater.  Corn nation has actually fared better on the road the last couple of years and some of their players, Nyles Paul in particular, not to mention head coach Bo Pelini have made disparaging comments about their fans.  Nebraska opens as an 8 point favorite in this one and I don't buy it for a minute.  The game opened at 7 but apparently money has been pouring in on the nubs.  I'm guessing a lot of farmers have suddenly taken out loans on their combines.  Despite the fact that I've admitted to being a shameless homer, I just have no idea what the odds makers and betters are thinking.  I'm taking the Tigers to not only cover, but to win outright.  MU 31-21.

Columbia wasn't the only program that was celebrating homecoming last weekend. A few miles to the west of here the jayhawks were taking on Texas A&M, Missouri's victim the week before in College Station Saturday night in larry.  While the crowd may not have been quite as large as the one in CoMo, there's something to be said for the ability to sit most anywhere you want.  This week the Crimson and Blue wrecking crew travel north to face Iowa State who pulled the upset of the week, and maybe the year last Saturday in a 28-21 win over Texas in Austin.  There hasn't been a line established for this game as of Tuesday.  I don't know if it's because of some Iowa State injury I haven't heard about of if the gamblers just plain forgot this game was being played.  At any rate, I'm going to predict the beaks fall to 0-4 in the conference as the Cyclones win 38-13.

In Austin, the bowl eligible Bears from Baylor visit the not yet bowl eligible Texas Longhorns.  It's like we've entered some sort of parallel universe as the whorns sit at 4-3 and suffered that home loss to Iowa State.  Texas fans being Texas fans, there has been some rumbling that Mack Brown may have lost his edge and they might need to replace him.  Mack himself has told his assistants that their jobs could be in jeopardy if they can't get the team playing with more emotion.  The fact that Texas was in the NC game last year doesn't really mean much to UT fans.  The athletic department at UT rakes in over 120 million a year and they aren't really familiar with the term rebuilding.  Texas opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite and I'm thinking they get off the 2 game home skid Saturday and win 38-24.   If Baylor was to pull off the upset here, and I certainly believe they're capable, we'll be hearing some major bitching from the Longhorn not so faithful.

Speaking of coaches and hot seats, Dan Hawkins makes his last trip to Norman to face a pissed off Sooner team in his farewell tour.  Expect the Hawk to be terminated before the last fan leaves the stadium in their final game, and really why wouldn't he be?  Meanwhile the Sooners will still be smarting from their nationally televised loss at the hands of my Tigers last weekend and you just know that Bob Stoops and company are going to take it out on someone.  Big game Bob has no problem running the score up on an over matched opponent as they try to get back in the national championship picture.  Oklahoma opens as a 24 point favorite in this one and they may cover that before the 1st quarter ends.  Pick OU in a rout, 59-7.  They will have one less rabid fan following the game this week so maybe they can dedicate the game to him.   Boomer Sooner.

Over in Manhattan the 5-2 K State Wildcats have another opportunity to get to bowl eligibility this week as they host Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys dreams of an unbeaten season were shattered last week in a 51-41 loss to hick nation.  Early Tuesday morning they got more bad news when star receiver Justin Blackmon was arrested for speeding and suspected driving under the influence as he was returning from the Monday night football game in Dallas.  The Cowboys open as a 6 point favorite in this one and I'm really tempted to call for the upset.  However, the Wildcats just aren't very good yet and I'm not ready to call for Carson Coffman to pull off a Taylor Martinez performance this weekend.  Look for the Cowboys to rally and win 41-24.

The week wraps up in College Station as the Aggies play host to the Red Raiders from Texas Tech.  Both  teams should be feeling better about themselves after wins last week over perennial powers Colorado and kansas.  A&M opens as a 7 point favorite in this one and the winning coach will feel the temperature of the seat he's on to cool a bit, but just a bit.  I'm going to take the Aggies to win, but fail to cover 24-21.
That's all I have for this week.  It should be a beautiful weekend in Kansas City and my honey do list is long.  I'll probably have to DVR the Missouri game and just catch some scores during the afternoon while I go out and mutilate some bushes in the yard.  Have a good weekend folks and we'll talk next Sunday.

Week 4 recap: What a difference a week can make.

The sun is shining much more brightly this morning that it was this time last week.  Instead of a last second escape, Mizzou grabbed the lead 8 seconds into the game when Carl Gettis returned a fumble 19 yards on the games first play.  Where the Tiger abandoned the run last week, Saturday they rushed the ball 38 times for 236 yards.  Blaine Gabbert was solid if not spectacular.  It was a good win for the Tigers who now get to take a week off as they prepare for the conference opener on October 9th when the Colorado Buffalos come to Columbia. 
Another tough week for me as far as picking the point spreads.  I was 7-1 straight up but once again below .500 as I went 2-4 against the spread.  For the year I'm 37-5 straight up but 16-19 if I were a betting man.  One of my wins came down in Houston where Baylor rebounded from the previous weeks pounding at the hands of TCU.  I'd picked them to cover the 7 1/2 point spread by beating the Owls 38-13.  The final score was Baylor 30-Rice 13.  Combine that with my pick for Mizzou to cover as 19 point point favorites over Miami, which they did and we have my 2 lone wins for this week.

There were 2 games this week that had no lines for them.  Winless South Dakota State traveled to Lincoln to face the undefeated Huskers, who I, along with others, had possibly prematurely annointed as the favorites in the north division and possibly the Big XII conference.  I'd picked the hicks to win this game 52-6.  However, this was a game until the end as corn nation escaped with a 17-3 win that left head coach Bo Pelini "embarrassed" after the game.  Nebraska is now off until October 7th, when they open conference play with a Thursday night game in Manhattan against the Kansas State Wildcats.  That's got the possibility of being a very good game which could go a long way toward determining who wins the division.  You can't say it's must win for either team but the loser is absolutely going to be in a hole.  The other game with no line this week was in Ames, where the Cyclones hosted Northern Iowa.  I had the 'Clones winning 31-13 and the final was 27-0.  Seriously though, who gives a shit?
Speaking of Kansas State, they opened as 6 1/2 point favorites at home over the Central Florida Golden Knights.  The game was played in a driving rainstorm and also stopped for close to an hour due to lightning.  I had the Cats winning this one comfortably 35-21 but they were forced to rally in the 4th quarter for 2 touchdowns to come from behind for a 17-13 win.  They now will be able to concentrate on that Thursday night matchup against the Huskers.  The question is, if you have 11 days to prepare for a game, who would you prefer to have game planning.  Bill Snyder or Bo Pelini?  hmmmmm

In lawrence, the jayhawks opened as 22 1/2 point favorites over hapless New Mexico State.  I'd seen nothing yet to convince me that the beaks would be able to score 23 points, let alone win by that many.  However, ku mounted another big game to keep the Aggies winless, pulling away to a 42-16 win.  Next Saturday the hawks take their show on the road to Waco with a match up against Baylor.
I had a feeling that Texas would drop this year, but I confess I don't know what to think about them.  They opened as a 16 1/2 point favorite at home against the Bruins of UCLA.  I think that Rick Neuheisel is just a terrible coach and that the whorns would be wanting to show that it wasn't time to be gifting the south title to Oklahoma just yet.  However, UT fell flat on their collective faces as the Bruins pounded them 34-12.  Next week it's the annual Red River Shootout as they meet the Sooners in Dallas for the annual contest to decide the south division.

Speaking of the Sooners, they traveled to Cincinnati as 16 point favorites over the Bearcats who have watched the progress they made the last few years leave with the departure of coach Brian Kelly, who has to be wondering why the hell he wanted to go coach at Notre Dame today.  This was by far the best effort Cincy has given this year, at least against Division 1 competition as they took the Sooners to the wire before OU escaped with a 31-29 win.  I assume that the team was looking ahead to the match up next week in Dallas, but really, who can be sure.  OU has had 3 lackluster victories in 4 games, but they just keep winning.
That's all I have for this week.  Since we have a Thursday night game this week as A&M travels north to Stillwater, I'll try to get my picks out by Thursday morning.  It's a crisp day in KC, and autumn is definitely in the air.  Hope your week gets off to a good start and I'll see you later.

Post spring around the Big XII. Part 4, kansas

So I'm halfway through the 6 teams that make up the north division of the Big XII (for now) conference.  I've discussed a program with a glorious past and no apparent future, Colorado; a team with an abysmal past but a glimmer of hope, Iowa State, and a contender for the worst college team of all time except for a 15 year period, that hopes to re capture lightning in a bottle via their local legend Bill Snyder, Kansas State.
So today, let me spend a few moments talking about the team that all Missouri fans love to hate, the kansas jayhawks.  As I've written before, there are few if any rivalries that carry the hatred of Missouri/kansas.  It's a birthright for both of us.  If you doubt that, visit a Missouri message board such as Tigerboard and spend a few minutes reading.  This isn't some feud born of a prank that occurred in 1940.  This is a full blown war that began in 1854 and has resulted in multiple atrocities from both sides that continue today.

Last year lew perkins and company hit on a genius marketing strategy with their "History awaits" campaign to pump their season ticket sales.  They'd just gone to consecutive bowl games for the first time in their long and storied history, returned the most experienced quarterback and receivers in the division and were only 2 years removed from their thrilling Orange Bowl triumph over Virginia Tech.  As an aside, did you notice that Fed Ex discontinued their sponsorship of the Orange Bowl last week?  Apparently the matchups weren't quite providing them with the audience they'd been hoping for the last few years.  But anyway, this was their best opportunity to win the division in the 15 year history of the conference.  The prognosticators were kind if not entirely confident and the fan base could hardly keep from jumping for joy at the possibilities.  So, naturally, after a promising, if uninspiring 5-0 start, they promptly went on a 7 game bender to finish 6th in college footballs softest division this side of Prairie View's conference opponents.  The carnage wasn't restricted to the field however as their head coach was terminated for "abusive behavior" of players.  Of course some of these charges were several years old, confirming that old saying, "winning cures everything".

So now they will begin the 2010 season with new head coach Turner Gill from Buffalo.  I've always had some grudging respect for Gill, and I understand his motive with some of the changes he's attempting to make, such as no more names on the backs of uniforms, and no swearing.  I don't think they're going to bear the fruit he's hoping, but it's his team now and he can do whatever he wants.  Well, as long as it's ok with lew.  I'd like to be able to wish him well, but I mean come on, it's kansas!  And frankly, I'm just not certain you can expect great things from a guy that just came off a 5-7 season in the MAC.  It was however an opportunity for him to move up and gain some BCS experience.  It's a high risk/high reward position, and after he couldn't get the guy that was the best man in his wedding to hire him once the Nebraska gig opened up, it was I guess in his opinion, time to take a chance.   
So now we have a new head coach in larry and a new group of players that while I don't know much about them, I'm sure I'll learn to hate.  I am kind of hopeful for the kid that appears to be their next quarterback, Kale Pick.  Anyone willing to take a guess what his nickname will be once he throws his first interception?  But he's going to have to go some to beat the legend that was Todd Reesing.

So I have to say, I really have no idea what to expect this year from the beaks.  They have a new coach that is attempting to install discipline and a no I in team concept to a group of kids who placed trying not to get punked by the basketball team at the top of their to do list every day.  There is also the little matter of an FBI investigation into the athletic department and 4 resignations among former staffers.  If I have one piece of advice to offer you TG, it's don't hold on to your paychecks for too long.  I'd get those babies cashed ASAP.  But hey, lew assured you it was no big deal, right?  Next time I'll talk a bit about the prohibitive favorite for the north crown this fall and the complete antithesis of Turner Gill, the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Bo Pelini.

My first instant analysis.

 If you want to know what most any kansas message board you'd care to visit looks like, this pretty well covers it.  Sorry beaks, but this is what happens when you buy up a nice shiny herd of thoroughbreds and forget to hire a jockey or buy a saddle.  Oh and getting coddled by Big XII refs all year doesn't prepare you either.  Better luck next year.

The Big XII north. Way too early predictions

The last time we got together we talked about things remaining the same in the south.  As far as last year goes, I sort of expect the end result to be what it's been for the last 2 years.  Missouri and Nebraska fighting it out for the top spot and everyone else sort of meandering around hoping for a 3rd place finish and a post season trip to Shreveport.  It really hasn't been that long since Colorado was a perennial contender for the CCG whipping boy and kansas finished 2nd as recently as 2007.  However, since that time Dan Hawkins has taken the Buffalos downhill faster than anyone could imagine and the beaks are in a state of flux thanks to last years little 7 game losing streak.

Starting out things in Boulder, the Buffs reeled in the 66th ranked class in the nation and 12th in the Big XII.  The Buff's only lost 2 starters on offense and 3 on defense but let's face it, when you wound up 3-9 and 2-6 in conference, are you really that excited to get all those starters back?  And it's not like they were ever so close to winning.  Those 9 losses include an opening season loss to 3-9 Colorado State and a 54-38 thrashing by 5-7 Toledo.  When your season highlight was starting the beaks 7 game losing streak, you aren't to be blamed if you're not terribly optimistic.  I've said for over a year that Coach Dan Hawkins is a dead man walking and I think this may finally be the year that he either produces or is fired.  At least I hope so.  I think he's a fairly nice guy that's in over his head and I've really never had a problem with the Colorado fans.  They don't do a lot of trash talking and they always offer you a hit off their bong if you travel to Boulder for a game.  Sadly, I think the Buffs are just treading water and hoping for an invitation to the Pac 10.

For a time it appeared that Bill Snyder had found another soul to sell and that the Wildcats were going to make a run at a north division title.  However, running into Missouri and Nebraska their last 2 games pretty much finished that hope off.  The 'Cats lose 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense which isn't terrible, but those were clearly the 9 best players that they had.  They go into this season with all sorts of questions, such as who will play quarterback and who might catch the ball should they find someone that can throw it.  They finished ahead of only Colorado as far as recruiting goes so no immediate help coming in there.  At some point they will have to find someone willing to coach the fiasco that their football program has become.  In the meantime they probably better pony up for Frank Martin so they can remain relevant in something.

Next stop is in Ames where head coach Paul Rhodes Cyclones went 7-6, (3-5 in conference) and made their first bowl appearance since a 2005 appearance in the Texas Bowl.   The 'Clones highlight of the season was a 9-7 barnburner of a win in Lincoln against the equally offensive challenged Cornhuskers.  They only lose 3 starters on the offensive side of the ball but lose 6 from what was a pretty good defense.   Also unfortunately for them they didn't really bring in much immediate help with their 60th ranked recruiting class.  (10th in the conference)  I've always liked the Iowa State fans and feel badly that they've had little to cheer about the last few years.  Hopefully they can keep Rhodes around, especially since he's an alumni, but facts are facts.  Their facilities are among the worst in the conference and Jack Trice Stadium with it's seating capacity of 55,000 isn't going to impress a lot of recruits.

Of course, some programs would consider 55,000 to be a step up.  We talk about one of them with our next stop in lawrence, kansas, the home of the fighting beakers.  In an effort to appease the fan base after the mid season collapse and revelations about former coach Mark Mangino, they brought in a hoped for up and comer when they hired Turner Gill from the University of Buffalo.  Now some teams would have been put off by the fact that he managed only a 5-7 record in the MAC last year and I really think he was about their 3rd choice.  But he brings some success as a former Husker during their glory years and he could be brought in fairly cheaply.  This is a really important hire for athletic director Lew "Yoda" Perkins.  They already have had to put their proposed stadium expansion on hold and a few of their fan base have started to realize that everywhere sweet Lew has been wound up on probation after he left.  Seriously, would you buy a used car from this man?

So now we head to what is the north's version of the Big 2.  Nebraska and Missouri are outspending the rest of the division when it comes to facilities and salaries for coaches.  Nebraska has had this commitment since, well, forever and Missouri is starting to reap the benefits after 20 years of futility and inept leadership.  They've finished 1-2 the last 2 seasons in the north, their recruiting classes ranked 21st and 22nd nationally and 4th and 5th in the conference.  They were also 2 of the younger teams in college football.  The hicks lose only one offensive starter from last year which may or may not be a good thing.  They appear to be making a push to go back to old time husker power football.  They do lose 5 starters from a really good defense, including all world defensive tackle Ndamakong Suh.  I would expect their defense to take something of a step back next year, but it's not unreasonable to expect their offense to be better.    

In Columbia, the opposite is true.  While the Tigers offense took something of a step back from the last 2 seasons, it was still one of the better scoring teams in the conference.  The Tigers lose 3 players each from the offense and defense, but Danario Alexander will be very tough to lose.  He was sophomore starter Blaine Gabberts favorite target.  Likewise the defense will suffer with the loss of linebacker Sean Weatherspoon who was the emotional leader of the team.  The Tigers however have been stockpiling good receivers for a while now and it should be someone's time to step up.  Whether that comes from increased production from Wes Kemp and Jerrell Jackson or someone new steps in such as Rolandis Woodland, TJ Moe or Michael Egnew.   They also brought in a bumper crop of receivers this year including Marcus Lucas, Jimmy Hunt and Bud Sassar.  Someone will have to step up but the candidates are plentiful and talented.  On the defensive side of the ball, Dominique Hamilton emerged as a very good defensive tackle as a sophomore.  He'll need some help here from the likes of Terrell Resonno, Jimmy Burge and Marvin Foster to replace the graduated Jaron Baston.  If I was making an early guess it would be Foster.  The linebacking corps is deep and experienced even with the loss of Weatherspoon.  The problem the Tigers will face is improving the defense against the pass where they were one of the worst in the nation.

So from what I see we've essentially got a 2 horse race next season.  The talent disparity is simply too great.  I've also seen nothing from the rest of the coaches in the division that would make me believe anyone has the next Knute Rockne running the show.  (sorry beakers)  So how do I break down the finish?  Of the bottom 4 I'm going to go with Iowa State 3rd, Kansas State 4th, only because of Bill Snyder, kansas 5th and that's only because Colorado is also in the division.  The only question is who returns more talent and can get it performing quickly.  With that one I'm going to stick with my usual homer position and take Missouri.  The offense will improve with Gabbert having another year under his belt and hopefully realizing that he doesn't have to lock in on one guy.  I think/hope the defense will improve and Nebraska seemingly returning to more  of a running team will play into Missouri's strength defensively.  And as I said, I think there is an excellent chance that the winner of the division actually wins the conference championship game.
Enjoy the rest of your week and I'll see you this weekend!