Week 3. Things get a bit tougher this week.

Well, week 2 has come and gone and if you're like me, you're more than a little conflicted about what is real and what is a mirage.  Is kansas the team that lost at home in their opener to a mediocre FCS team or the one that beat a top 15 team last Saturday?  How about Oklahoma?  Has Missouri found a true breakaway back and could K State be for real?  I have no idea, but I think we'll start to get a few answers this week as things toughen up for some teams, including 2 conference match ups that could help clear some things up as far as pecking order.
I'll be making my first trip to Columbia to watch my Tigers take on San Diego State at 6:00 pm on Saturday night.  The weather sounds beautiful and it should be around 70 degrees at kickoff with temps dropping to the low 60's by the end of the game.  The Aztecs will step on Faurot Field with a 2-0 record, with wins over Nichols State and New Mexico State who sport a combined record of 0-3.  The Aztecs are running the ball well, averaging over 6 yards a carry and throwing it also.  However, the fact remains that both games were played against teams that were probably not much better than McNeese State was last week.  However, it's a decent test for week 3, although once again we will only be able to take much away from it if Mizzou loses or even if it's close in the 4th quarter.  Think Bowling Green from last year.  I'm also looking forward to watching the Tigers newest running back, Henry Josey running against a defensive team that isn't outweighed by 60 lbs a man.

So on with my takes on this weeks matchups.  Currently I'm sitting with a gaudy (for me) 22-2 record straight up but only 10-9 against the spread, so if you read this, don't use it as any sort of a guide on making your bets.  God knows I wouldn't.
Starting out in Columbia, the Tigers open as a 16 point favorite against the Aztecs.  SD State has been picked to finish as high as 4th in the improving Mountain West Conference, but make no mistake, this is no Utah, BYU or TCU.  It's a nice little team that's improving but still has a way to go before they return to the glory days when Don Coryell was coaching there.  They should provide a decent test for the first half before Mizzou pulls away in the 2nd.  I'm taking Missouri in a game that will be closer for a while than the 41-10 final would suggest.

Speaking of the Mountain West, Baylor travels north to Fort Worth to take on the #4 ranked Horned Frogs of TCU.   They likewise open 2-0 with wins over Oregon State and Tennessee Tech.  This is the Frogs only test against a BCS opponent during the regular season and I expect them to try to make the most of it, in an effort to crack a BCS bowl in January.  TCU opens as a 21 point favorite in this one.  I think they cover and win 38-13.
Colorado fell back to earth without a parachute last week as they were demolished 52-7 last week in Berkeley in the Hemp bowl.  This week they'll play host to the University of Hawaii Warriors in the munchies bowl.  Roasted pig for everyone.  The Buffs open as a 10 point favorite here and I really don't understand why.  They opened the season with a 13 point loss to USC.  Now those aren't the Trojans from the early 90's, but still an impressive squad.  Last week the Flying Kalua's traveled to West point and outlasted the Cadets 31-28.  This is a must game for Dan Hawkins if he's to maintain any hope of retaining his job.  I don't believe Colorado can cover a 10 point spread, but I'm going to go all out here and say they lose straight up.  I'm taking Hawaii to pull the upset, 31-28.

The conference season opens with all the excitement of a 4th of July picnic in West Platte, Nebraska at Arrowhead as the K State Wildcats lock horns with the Iowa State Cyclones.  All this electric match up needs is a tractor pull at halftime.  The Wildcats open this one as a 5 point favorite.  I really like the Clones coach but it's hard to bet against Mr. Burns.  I believe the K Staters pull away with this in the 2nd half as their rushing attack takes it's toll on an inexperienced ISU defense.  I'd take the 'Cats to cover and win, 24-10.
Friday night, the enigma that is kansas football travels to Hattiesburg to take on the Eagles of Southern Mississippi, a Conference USA opponent.  Beak nation has the worst loss of the conference when they dropped their opener to North Dakota State, but arguably the best win after edging Georgia Tech last weekend.  Southern Miss opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite in this one, I suppose mostly due to the fact that it's a home game for them.  I'd take ku if this were being played in larry, but it's their first game on the road, in an atmosphere that will be fairly hostile, so I'm going to take the Eagles to win and cover, 27-21. 

Hick nation may already have their combines headed west as the Huskers travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies Saturday.  There was quite a bit of early love for UDub and they've played a tough schedule.  It's also a 12:30 local start which is in their favor, and I don't believe that Nebraska is a top 10 team.  That being said, I think they win on their first trip away from home.  The nubs open as a 4 1/2 point favorite and I believe the line is very close.  I'm going with them to just come up short of covering in a 21-17 nail biter.
OU plays host to the Air Force Academy this weekend in what should be an interesting game.  The Falcons come into Norman at 2-0, including an impressive 35-14 win at home last week over formerly ranked BYU.  The Sooners opened as an 18 1/2 point favorite which at first seemed high to me.  However, this is the kind of game Stoops is able to get his team ready for as evidenced by their dismantling of Florida State last week.  I'm going to take OU to win and cover 31-10.  Meanwhile, up the road in Stillwater the Cowboys host cross state rival Tulsa.    Okie Light opens as only a 7 point favorite here but I'm looking for them to easily cover that and win 38-17.

Down in College Station, the Aggies continue their version of the cupcake diet as they host lightly regarded Florida International, who lost their season opener 19-14 to Rutgers, who appear to be returning to their customary position of Big East whipping boys.  The fun and games portion of A&M's schedule ends after this game so I expect Sherman to let the dogs keep running into the 4th quarter.  The Aggies open as a 27 1/2 point favorite.  I'm looking for them to cover and win 48-17.

But the game of the week is being played in Lubbock as the 2-0 Red Raiders host the 2-0 Texas Longhorns is the other conference opener.  The Whorns haven't exactly struggled this year, but the offense has definitely taken a step back.  Today's Tech team may not have the offensive firepower they showed while Mike Leach was coaching them, but they aren't exactly slouches either.  And you had to know that the defense was going to improve when Tommy Tuberville was given the head coaching job.  I firmly believe that this is just a bridge job for TT until another SEC job opens up.  He's already been chastised by Dan Beebe and the Big XII offices for stating his opinion that the conference wouldn't survive with the current inequities.  I, and frankly most people agree with him.  Texas opens this game as a 3 point favorite.  The Red Raiders have beaten Texas before at home, and I believe they're going to do it again on Saturday.  I'm going with Tech to win straight up, 28-24.
I hope your team has good luck this weekend.  It sounds like it's going to be a gorgeous afternoon for tailgating in Columbia, and this morning (Friday) I'm taking a nice brisket out to smoke for my opening week. Don't forget that Sunday is national talk like a pirate day.  Try to do your best Mike Leach imitation and I'll see you next week.          
 

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