Week 5: Reflecting on the non con schedule.

I think a week between the non con schedule and the conference opener is just about perfect.  It gives some guys that are dinged up a little time to heal and the coaches time to look at film of upcoming opponents.  It also gives we fans a chance to kick back and relax, or in my case spend a weekend on the honey do list.  (Didn't we just wash those windows last year?)  It's been an interesting pre season starting with the annual win over Illannoy at the dome.  It's a series that needed to end though and I'm looking forward to contests with Arizona State the next 2 years.  I do kind of fear that with the conference schedule expanding that we'll see less of those kind of games however.  And I get it.  If you're going to be playing teams like OU, Texas, Okie Lite and Tech every year, just how difficult does the non conference schedule need to be?

So what did we learn from our first 4 games?  Well, we may not have a Danario Alexander, but Michael Egnew and TJ Moe are pretty darned good.  Toss in what could be a healthy Jerrell Jackson as a possible deep threat and the passing game could be above average in what appears to be a Big XII conference that is a bit down from previous years.  We appear to have 4 running backs capable of breaking off big plays if given the smallest of seams.  Blaine Gabbert seems to stay in the pocket a bit longer and seems to be spreading the ball out a bit more, but I'd still like to see a few more throws heading Wes Kemps way.  And the defense has been light years ahead of last season.  Carl Gettis and Andrew Gachkar in particular have just torn things up so far, and Dom Hamilton has been solid in the middle of the line.  And what needs to be said about the Smith Brothers, Madison, Sam and company on the outside?  You have to give DC Dave Steckel a lot of credit for the improvements he's made.  The Big XII seems more wide open this year.  Texas seems to be unable to rush the football, OU has been in tight games outside of taking Florida State to the woodshed in week 2, and Nebraska is only going to be as good as their running game will take them.  I don't see anyone as a clear cut favorite this year, and the Tigers have as much of a chance to break out as any of the teams I've mentioned.       

It's been a rough year for me picking against the spread.  I'm just 16-19 there and I'm beginning to think that it's at least partially due to increased parity in college football.  Oh, I can get the winners as a pretty darned good record of 37-5 should show, but nothing appears to be a slam dunk this year.  That being said, I'm going to keep making my picks and taking my medicine on Sunday mornings.  The week starts early when Texas A&M travels north to Stillwater Thursday night to take on the Cowboys.  Both teams are 3-0 but A&M seems to have some problems while OSU has throttled 2 of their 3 opponents so far.  The Cowboys open as 3 point favorites in this one but I don't think it's going to be that close.  I think that Jerrod Johnson indeed has some shoulder problems and it's going to be tough for the Aggies to keep up with teams that can score during conference play.  I'm taking the Cowboys to win and cover easily, 31-17.

Down in Waco, the Baylor Bears host kansas this weekend.  It could be a matchup of biblical proportions as Turner Gill takes his no swearing policy into the home of the poster children of the Bible Belt.  The Bears open as 9 1/2 point favorites in this one.  The beaks have been poison for me this year on their way to their 2-2 record.  I think Baylor pulls away in the 2nd half of this one and covers, 34-21.  And like most Missouri fans, all I can say is "Go Baptists".
Out west in Boulder the Buffs wind up their non conference schedule by hosting the Georgia Bulldogs.  Now normally I'd say this would be a blow out, but this ain't the Dawgs of 10, 5 or even 3 years ago.  Georgia currently sits at 1-3 with consecutive losses to South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State.  This is just unacceptable for their fans.  They come in as a 4 1/2 point favorite on the road.  I think they'll be able to turn things around a bit and pull this one out, but fail to cover.  I'm picking Georgia with a late score to win 21-17.

Up in Ames, the Cyclones host Texas Tech, who comes in as a 7 1/2 point favorite.  Both teams are 0-1 in conference play and will be hungry for a win.  I think Paul Rhodes is a very good coach but he's going to get schooled Saturday night by one of the best.  I'm taking Tech to win and cover, 31-14.
The biggest game in the conference is in Dallas this week as Texas and Oklahoma get together for the Red River Shootout.  Despite offers from Jerry Jones, the game is going to remain in the Cotton Bowl until 2015, assuming of course that the stadium doesn't collapse.  Both teams have looked extremely beatable so far this year, although the Sooners have remained unbeaten.  OU comes in as a 4 point favorite.  I'm not thinking this is enough.  Oklahoma looked great a couple of weeks ago when they dismantled a pretty good Florida State team.  I think they bring their A game Saturday and coast, 35-17.
There are a couple of pretty good games out of conference this weekend as Alabama is at home against the Gators from Florida.  This features the 2 best coaches in the game in Nick Saban and Urban Meier.  The Tide opens as a 9 1/2 point favorite in this one.  Despite being in a dogfight against Arkansas last weekend, I think Bama comes in focused and puts this away by halftime.  I'm taking Saban and company, 34-21.

Out west, Stanford travels north to play the Oregon Ducks.  Both teams are 4-0, and 1-0 in the Pac 10, soon to be Pac 12.  Oregon is a 7 point favorite at home.  Both squads have a pretty impressive resume so far this year.  Stanford's wins include Notre Dame, Wake Forest and a UCLA team that blasted Texas last week.  Oregon opened the season with a 72-0 win over New Mexico and has followed up with impressive road wins over Tennessee and Arizona State.  I'm going with the home team to win and cover here, as I think Oregon wins 41-27 in a shootout.  And of course the main reason to even look at this game will always be the Duck Cheerleaders.
That's all I have for now.  I may watch some of the A&M/Okie light game tonight but I'm sort of saving up my week night football for next weekend when K State hosts hick nation at Bill Snyder Family Stadium & dry cleaners.  Good luck to your team this week and we'll see how I did next Sunday or so.