Week 11:The biggest game of the season.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, the games always get bigger this time of year if you're having some success.  A game against Kansas State at home is probably the biggest game the Tigers have played this year due to previous circumstances.  The last game I attended was the OU game, two weeks passed now.  The mood was buoyant after that game; the Tigers were 7-0 and cracked the top 10.  Then bang.  The Tigers unquestionably played their worst quarter of football in Lincoln to fall behind 24-0, and then to add insult to injury, after an early 14-0 lead the offense goes into hiding as they lose their 2nd game in a row to Texas Tech.
Coach Pinkel is a victim of his own success now.  After that 7-0 start, anything less than 10 wins is going to be considered a failure.  The OC, David Yost is taking the lions share of the blame right now, which I can't disagree with, along with the quarterback Blaine Gabbert, which while I can't completely agree with, is understandable.  Missouri needs this game badly.  A loss now and a final regular season record of 8-4 is staring the team in the face, which is going to make for a very disappointed fan base.  Win Saturday, and you should be guaranteed at least a 9 win, and very possibly a 10 win regular season.  I'd take that every September if you offered it to me.

Last week was brutal for me as I went 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread.  For the year, I'm 61-17 straight up and 35-35 against the point spread.  The game against K State really worries me this weekend.  The Wildcats are bowl eligible at 6-3 and playing for position and style points right now.  They are still a fairly one dimensional team, but Missouri hasn't proved incredibly successful at stopping the run since Dominique Hamilton went down with a broken ankle during the OU win.  Kay State only put the ball up 4 times last weekend against Texas but Daniel Thomas and new quarterback Collin "Calvin" Klein combined for 233 yards as the Cats basically put the final bullet in the head of the Longwhorns season.  I think Missouri can reasonable keep 7 in the box this weekend with the occasional safety or corner blitz and keep the Cats to a manageable amount of rushing yards and time taken off the clock.  I'm probably saying this more out of my heart than my head.  The Tigers are favored by 13 points in this game.  I'm taking them to win and cover, 38-21.   

In Waco, the bowl eligible Baylor Bears play host to the bowl eligible Teas A&M Aggies.  That's not one many folks saw coming before the season began, at least not with 3 games remaining in the season.  A&M has played well the last couple of weeks since replacing Jerrod Johnson at quarterback.  The Aggies come to town as 3 point favorites in this one, but I believe the Bears are going to protect their home turf.  I'm taking Baylor 31-30 in a nail biter.
We all knew it was going to happen at one time or another and this week the Colorado athletic department finally did the merciful thing and put a bullet in the head of Dan Hawkins career as the Buff's head coach.  Sometimes you'll see a team use this as motivation to win in support of a popular coach that's been terminated.  I don't look for that here.  The Clones come in as 2 point favorites in this one and need 1 more win in their last 2 games to reach bowl eligibility again.  I don't think they want their season to depend on beating Missouri next week, despite the Tigers recent struggles.  I think ISU wins and covers easily.  Take the Cyclones, 31-21.

The kansas jayhawks, fresh off tasting the heady beverage of conference victory for the 2nd time in 14 months head north to the land of corn as they put their winning streak up against the huskers.  Nebraska barely got out of Ames alive, escaping with a 31-30 victory.  The hicks open as a 35 point favorite and I don't believe this game will ever be in doubt.  But I think that at some point Dr. Tom may whisper in Bo Pelini's ear and ask him to take it easy on the Doc's best friend.  The hicks win but miss covering 38-10.
In Norman, the suddenly vulnerable appearing Sooners host the guys that my team played last weekend, the Red Raiders from Texas Tech.  OU is out of the national championship picture now after last weeks loss to A&M but a BCS bid is still within their grasp.  Big game Bob wants the trip to the championship game and he needs a win badly this week to ensure the chance.  This isn't good for coach Tommy Tubberville's Raiders.  Oklahoma enters this game as a 15 point favorite.  I'm taking the Sooners to win and cover 38-10.

In another south face-off, the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Austin to face the disappointing Texas Longhorns.  Okie Lite is 8-1 on the season, and 4-1 in conference play, and represent the best chance anyone has of winning the southern division of the Big XII conference other than OU or Tejas.  The whorns haven't played well at home, or on the road for that matter outside of a glorious afternoon at Gomer Pyle Stadium in Lincoln a few weeks ago.  The Cowboys open as a 6 point favorite.  I think they're going to roll Texas, who may well mail the rest of their season in.  I'm picking the fighting Picken's to win 41-17.
That's all I've got for this week.  I'm heading back to 8 hour shifts next week which should make it much easier to write.  Have a great weekend folks, unless you're fans of Mr Burns.
 

Week 3 recap: When a win feels like a loss.

My team isn't so far removed from 8 loss seasons that I should be critical of a win any way you can get it.  That being said, beside the fact that Missouri won last nights game in incredibly dramatic fashion, it just feels like something of a hollow victory.  Yes, San Diego State was 2-0 and had put up some great numbers offensively but they are still a middle of the pack Mountain West team that should have been blown out badly last night.  The Aztecs scored 2 touchdowns on runs of 75 and 94 yards that were simply the result of a running back that refused to go down.  I can't pin this on anything other than 2 lapses over the course of the game.  Other than that, I thought the defense played fairly well and DC Dave Steckel called a pretty darned good game.  On the other side of the ball, there were some drops by receivers and some passes by Blaine Gabbert that were off target.  These are college kids and I can deal with that.

However there is something at work here bigger than execution.  Our offensive coordinator, one Dave Yost is seemingly in over his head right now.  Things worked well last year when Danario Alexander was a threat to take any pass to the end zone.  We still have a fine group of receivers, but none that is the home run threat that he is; last minute heroics by TJ Moe aside.  And don't let me get started on the rushing game.  The option read isn't working Dave, and how about a few more plays where the running back isn't in motion for 10 yards before we hand him the ball.  Missouri has recruited some fine talent the last few years.  It's your job to take advantage of their strengths and put them in a position to use them.  It's not to show people that you're more creative than Dave Christensen.  If what I'm hearing from a lot of fans (and donors) is representative of the Mizzou fan base, Mike Alden may be asking Coach Pinkel to make some tough choices at the end of the year.
A tough week for me prediction wise.  I went 8-2 straight up but a miserable 4-6 vs the spread.  For the year I'm 30-4 but a "where did the mortgage payment go" 14-15 when picking against the point spreads.  I finally managed to get the kansas game right on both counts as they fell 31-16 against Southern Mississippi.  I don't see anything bad about that loss on Friday night for the beaks, and God knows I looked for some.  It was their first trip away from the friendly if somewhat weird confines of lawrence, and regardless of the conference they play in, southern football fans are loud and passionate.

The south teams are proving to be insanely unpredictable this year.  I thought OU was preparing themselves for a national championship date in January after last weekends dismantling of Florida State, but then they allow the Falcons of the Air Force academy to mount a comeback before winning 27-24.  Coach Stoops is going to earn his money this year just keeping his teams attention it appears.  I fully expected Texas Tech to upset the Longwhorns in Lubbock, but UT managed a 24-14 win.  Baylor plays the part of the Christians against TCU's best lions impersonation while Oklahoma State puts up 60 plus points for the 2nd time this year against a somewhat respectable Tulsa squad.
It sickens me to say this, but right now Nebraska appears to be the class of the conference after the absolutely drilled a decent Washington team on the road.  I can't force myself to go anywhere further with this thought.

Colorado really surprised me with their 31-13 win over a Hawaii squad that had given USC all they wanted in week 1 and K State won Farmageddon 2.0 in much the same fashion as last year.  I still believe the south will come down to Texas and OU in Dallas on October 2nd and the north will be decided in Lincoln on Halloween eve.  But guys like Mike Gundy and Bill Snyder may yet make it interesting.
But that's all I have for now, so I'll see you all around Friday with my picks for next week.       

Week 2 recap. Going far too well for me.

I'm one of these guys that isn't just willing to take success at face value.  I always think that if something looks too good to be true, then it probably is.  That's why after week 2, I'm really nervous about sitting here with a sparkling 22-2 record straight up.  Oh, I know that I'm barely above water when it comes to the point spread, but if I can just wind up even there, I consider it to be a success.  But before I get too full of myself, it's just week 2 and frankly, there haven't been too many opportunities for me to screw up yet.  Where I could really get in trouble is if I were making predictions for the ACC.  If college football isn't done with expansion yet, and I don't believe that it is, if I'm the AD at any Big XII north school, I'm campaigning for membership to their conference right now.  Anyway, for the week I was once again 11-1 straight up and a much more respectable 6-4 vs the spread.  For the year, I'm 22-2 and 10-9.

In Columbia, we may have seen some sign of a new legend being born as freshman Henry Josey rushed for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 7 carries.  After the problems in week 1, it was a breath of fresh air.  You have to remember it was against FCS competition and he's not likely to see the gaping holes he did this week, but speed is speed and this kid has it.  Hoping to see him get the ball in space against better competition.  There was no line in this game so I didn't have an opportunity to pad my statistics.  However, the 50-6 final was only 5 points off from my prediction of 55-6.   Next up will be a 6:00 pm matchup against San Diego State which also will come in a 2-0.  It will also mark my first trip to Columbia since the spring game.
In Waco, Robert Griffin threw for 297 yards as Baylor rolled over Buffalo 34-6.  My prediction was 37-17.  The Bears move to 2-0, but things get much tougher next week as they travel to Forth Worth to face top 5 TCU.

Speaking of getting tougher, it got a lot tougher for Dan Hawkins and the Colorado Buffalos Saturday as they traveled to Berkeley to meet up with future Pac 12 rival Cal.  The spread was 8 1/2 points and I didn't expect it to be that close as I had the Bears winning 37-17.  The final was Cal 52, Colorado 7.  Let's wratchet up the death watch for Coach Hawkins again.
Likewise for Iowa State, it was much different in week 2.  The Cyclones traveled cross state to meet Top 10 Iowa as a 13 1/2 point underdog.  This one was over by half time as the Hawkeyes jumped out to a 28-0 lead.  I'd predicted a 38-21 win for Iowa and the final was 35-7.  Next week ISU opens conference play a bit early as they meet K State at Arrowhead Stadium in Farmageddon 2.0.
I've had 2 losses straight up so far this year and both have involved my best buddies to the west, the kansas jayhawks.  After losing to FCS opponent North Dakota State ( who lost yesterday to another kansas favorite, Northern Iowa) there was just no chance they could compete with # 15 Georgia Tech, right?  Well, I along with most of America were wrong as the beaks held on for a 28-25 win over the Rambling Wreck.  I'd predicted a 41-14 Tech win in this one.  Next week the beaks travel to Hattiesburg to face 1-1 Southern Mississippi.  I have no idea what the line will be for this one or who will win.  We'll play it by ear and see what my gut tells me on Thursday.

In the other game this week that had no line, Terry Allen brought Missouri State to Manhattan to face Bill Snyder and the K State Wildcats.  It wasn't much of a contest, but a bit more interesting than I expected as I predicted a 48-13 Wildcat win.  The final was 48-24 K State.  As I mentioned earlier, the Cats play Iowa State next week at Arrowhead in one of the two conference games that will be played. 
In Lincoln, the Huskers opened as a 28 1/2 point favorite against the Idaho Vandals.  I stated that I wasn't convinced of the effectiveness of the hicks offense and nothing happened yesterday to change my mind.  I had corn nation winning but failing to cover 38-14.  The final score was 38-17 but this included 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns and scores off 2 long TD runs.  For the day Idaho threw 5 interceptions, while Nebraska had one picked off and only 111 yards passing.  Nebraska also had 8 fumbles, losing 3 of them.  No doubt they have some home run threats on the ground, but they're going to have to have some semblance of a passing attack once they enter Big XII play.  Next up is a trip to Washington, which doesn't seem nearly as imposing as it did before the season started.

Probably the most impressive win of the day came in Norman where the Sooners entered as 9 point favorites against Florida State, yet another ACC pretender.  I was fooled by OU's mediocre performance in week one and while I predicted the Sooners to win, I didn't expect them to cover.  I had OU in a close one, 28-21, but they rolled to an impressive 47-17 win as quarterback Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and 4 touchdown against what was considered to be a stout FSU defense.  Next week OU plays host to the Air Force Academy in one of the better schedules in Division 1 this year.
Another game I missed on the spread was played in Stillwater where the Cowboys rallied in the 2nd half to overtake Troy, 41-38.  I'd predicted an Okie Lite romp 35-14 to cover the 11 1/2 spread and in hindsight I should have known better.  Troy had beaten OSU as recently as 2007 and aren't intimidated by trips to BCS home fields.  Next week the Cowboys host Tulsa so frankly, we're still not going to know much about them for a few more weeks.

My 3rd failure in the south happened in Austin where Texas failed to cover a 29 point spread again former Missouri OC Dave Christensen and his Wyoming Cowboys by winning 34-7.  I had the Horns winning 41-10.  They continue to struggle somewhat in the post Colt McCoy era but will continue to win.  As I've said earlier, the Longhorn defense if big, fast and mean.  Conference season opens for Texas next week as they travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech, who were 52-17 winners against New Mexico Saturday night.  This game was a winner for me as I had picked the Red Raiders to win 48-10 and cover a 23 1/2 point spread.
Texas A&M was an 18 point favorite against Louisiana Tech and I'd predicted a 38-14 Aggie win to cover.  The final was 48-16 as they continue to put up impressive numbers against unimpressive opponents.  Things don't change next week as 0-1 Florida International travels to College Station.  I hope Mike Sherman isn't gaining too much weight from this cupcake diet he seems to be on this year.  We really aren't going to know much about them until Sept. 30th when they travel to Stillwater to face the Cowboys.
I hope your week goes well and I'll see you around Thursday or so with my picks for next week. 

   
   

 

85AEF2FD-3145-21CB-D605-5386103548C3

1.03.01

Post spring around the Big XII North. Part 1-Colorado

Well, spring football is over and done so I thought I'd take a look at how it progressed and what we might have to look forward to this fall.  We'll start up with a trip to Boulder and take a look at everyone's favorite whipping boys, the Colorado Buffaloes and coach Dan Hawkins.  The Buffs finished last year at 3-9, (2-6 in conference) and probably would have to call their 34-30 win over north rival kansas the highlight of the year.  Considering the beaks went on to lose the next 6 games after that might take a bit of the luster off, but you have to find bright spots wherever you can.  About their next biggest accomplishment was scoring on Missouri for the first time in 3 years.  I'd say that this was a make or break season for coach Dan, but hell, that's what I said last year.  Considering the state of their athletic department they may well be stuck with him until his contract expires and it costs them nothing to buy him out.  Hard to believe this is the same program that regularly competed for Big XII titles and won a national championship not that long ago. 

The good news for Colorado is that they return most of last years team.  The downside of that is they really fucking sucked last year and the odds are they will just become more experienced at losing this season.  And it's not like bringing in the 12th ranked recruiting class in the conference, (66th overall) means you've landed some immediate help.  I mean seriously, I could sit and break down positions, likely improvement by receivers and quarterbacks, linemen getting bigger and stronger, new schemes, but we'd all know I was full of shit and just trying to put lipstick on a pig.  The bottom line is they stunk last year, they stunk the year before that and they may well be worse this season.   They've never been known to draw big crowds and the best reasons for attending a game in Boulder are the view of the mountains and I hear it's a good place to score weed.

So trying to keep a straight face while I type this, the future is very murky for Dan and the Boys this fall.  With a non conference schedule of Colorado State, Hawaii, Cal and Georgia plus their 8 conference games, I think that if things really break well for them they could win 3 games.  Now this assumes that their quarterback, Dan's son Cody suffers a season ending injury early in game 1 and someone comes to Boulder and the team develops a mass case of dysentery.   Without that, well they could be looking at going 0 fer this fall.  But, it isn't hopeless.  They do still have kansas on their schedule.
I don't know that any Buff fans have ever read my blog, but if you do, I feel for you.  I know it has to be tough when you start the year hoping that your football and basketball teams can somehow manage to get to 10 wins....combined, but hey, you'll always have the 5th down game, a beautiful stadium and the possibility that the Pac 10 decides to take you as a new whipping boy.  In the meantime, here's something for you to pass time with this fall as you tailgate.  No really sharp edges to hurt yourself, but try to remember to actually go into the stadium at some point. 

Let the Dan Hawkins deathwatch officially begin

I've never particularly hated Colorado. It's one of my favorite vacation destinations. Oh, I admit I hated them a little on October 6th, 1990; one day after my 36th birthday, when they used a 5th down to escape Columbia with a 33-31 win (where they still NEVER scored) on their way to a shared national title. But I was really more upset when a supposedly competent Big 8 officiating crew and my own teams coaching staff apparently couldn't count to 5. Otherwise, their fans have always been fairly nice and hey, at least they weren't Nebraska or kansas.
But after last nights 54-38 loss to a middle of the pack MAC team in Toledo, I think we can officially label the Dan Hawkins experiment a failure. Giving up over 600 yards of offense to Toledo? No quarterback and receivers that might or might not be able to beat me in a footrace. Boise State fans never seemed that concerned when "The Hawk" packed up and headed to Boulder and now it appears they knew what they were talking about. Dan Hawkins seems like a good guy, but it's obvious that he's in over his head when it comes to judging talent and game day decision making. He just received a 3 year extension and I know the administration won't want to spend the money for the buyout plus what it would take to hire a new coach and staff, but if they don't, then expect Colorado to be the road trip of choice for Big XII opponents since it will be easy to get good seats.
Speaking of contract extensions, I hear Bill Snyder just got a 5 year extension from K State. Not bad after 1 game in his return resulting in a 4 point win over UMASS.
Oh, and I did start the week out 0-1 in my picks, although I'm 1-0 vs. the spread. See you guys Monday.