Week 3. Things get a bit tougher this week.

Well, week 2 has come and gone and if you're like me, you're more than a little conflicted about what is real and what is a mirage.  Is kansas the team that lost at home in their opener to a mediocre FCS team or the one that beat a top 15 team last Saturday?  How about Oklahoma?  Has Missouri found a true breakaway back and could K State be for real?  I have no idea, but I think we'll start to get a few answers this week as things toughen up for some teams, including 2 conference match ups that could help clear some things up as far as pecking order.
I'll be making my first trip to Columbia to watch my Tigers take on San Diego State at 6:00 pm on Saturday night.  The weather sounds beautiful and it should be around 70 degrees at kickoff with temps dropping to the low 60's by the end of the game.  The Aztecs will step on Faurot Field with a 2-0 record, with wins over Nichols State and New Mexico State who sport a combined record of 0-3.  The Aztecs are running the ball well, averaging over 6 yards a carry and throwing it also.  However, the fact remains that both games were played against teams that were probably not much better than McNeese State was last week.  However, it's a decent test for week 3, although once again we will only be able to take much away from it if Mizzou loses or even if it's close in the 4th quarter.  Think Bowling Green from last year.  I'm also looking forward to watching the Tigers newest running back, Henry Josey running against a defensive team that isn't outweighed by 60 lbs a man.

So on with my takes on this weeks matchups.  Currently I'm sitting with a gaudy (for me) 22-2 record straight up but only 10-9 against the spread, so if you read this, don't use it as any sort of a guide on making your bets.  God knows I wouldn't.
Starting out in Columbia, the Tigers open as a 16 point favorite against the Aztecs.  SD State has been picked to finish as high as 4th in the improving Mountain West Conference, but make no mistake, this is no Utah, BYU or TCU.  It's a nice little team that's improving but still has a way to go before they return to the glory days when Don Coryell was coaching there.  They should provide a decent test for the first half before Mizzou pulls away in the 2nd.  I'm taking Missouri in a game that will be closer for a while than the 41-10 final would suggest.

Speaking of the Mountain West, Baylor travels north to Fort Worth to take on the #4 ranked Horned Frogs of TCU.   They likewise open 2-0 with wins over Oregon State and Tennessee Tech.  This is the Frogs only test against a BCS opponent during the regular season and I expect them to try to make the most of it, in an effort to crack a BCS bowl in January.  TCU opens as a 21 point favorite in this one.  I think they cover and win 38-13.
Colorado fell back to earth without a parachute last week as they were demolished 52-7 last week in Berkeley in the Hemp bowl.  This week they'll play host to the University of Hawaii Warriors in the munchies bowl.  Roasted pig for everyone.  The Buffs open as a 10 point favorite here and I really don't understand why.  They opened the season with a 13 point loss to USC.  Now those aren't the Trojans from the early 90's, but still an impressive squad.  Last week the Flying Kalua's traveled to West point and outlasted the Cadets 31-28.  This is a must game for Dan Hawkins if he's to maintain any hope of retaining his job.  I don't believe Colorado can cover a 10 point spread, but I'm going to go all out here and say they lose straight up.  I'm taking Hawaii to pull the upset, 31-28.

The conference season opens with all the excitement of a 4th of July picnic in West Platte, Nebraska at Arrowhead as the K State Wildcats lock horns with the Iowa State Cyclones.  All this electric match up needs is a tractor pull at halftime.  The Wildcats open this one as a 5 point favorite.  I really like the Clones coach but it's hard to bet against Mr. Burns.  I believe the K Staters pull away with this in the 2nd half as their rushing attack takes it's toll on an inexperienced ISU defense.  I'd take the 'Cats to cover and win, 24-10.
Friday night, the enigma that is kansas football travels to Hattiesburg to take on the Eagles of Southern Mississippi, a Conference USA opponent.  Beak nation has the worst loss of the conference when they dropped their opener to North Dakota State, but arguably the best win after edging Georgia Tech last weekend.  Southern Miss opens as a 5 1/2 point favorite in this one, I suppose mostly due to the fact that it's a home game for them.  I'd take ku if this were being played in larry, but it's their first game on the road, in an atmosphere that will be fairly hostile, so I'm going to take the Eagles to win and cover, 27-21. 

Hick nation may already have their combines headed west as the Huskers travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies Saturday.  There was quite a bit of early love for UDub and they've played a tough schedule.  It's also a 12:30 local start which is in their favor, and I don't believe that Nebraska is a top 10 team.  That being said, I think they win on their first trip away from home.  The nubs open as a 4 1/2 point favorite and I believe the line is very close.  I'm going with them to just come up short of covering in a 21-17 nail biter.
OU plays host to the Air Force Academy this weekend in what should be an interesting game.  The Falcons come into Norman at 2-0, including an impressive 35-14 win at home last week over formerly ranked BYU.  The Sooners opened as an 18 1/2 point favorite which at first seemed high to me.  However, this is the kind of game Stoops is able to get his team ready for as evidenced by their dismantling of Florida State last week.  I'm going to take OU to win and cover 31-10.  Meanwhile, up the road in Stillwater the Cowboys host cross state rival Tulsa.    Okie Light opens as only a 7 point favorite here but I'm looking for them to easily cover that and win 38-17.

Down in College Station, the Aggies continue their version of the cupcake diet as they host lightly regarded Florida International, who lost their season opener 19-14 to Rutgers, who appear to be returning to their customary position of Big East whipping boys.  The fun and games portion of A&M's schedule ends after this game so I expect Sherman to let the dogs keep running into the 4th quarter.  The Aggies open as a 27 1/2 point favorite.  I'm looking for them to cover and win 48-17.

But the game of the week is being played in Lubbock as the 2-0 Red Raiders host the 2-0 Texas Longhorns is the other conference opener.  The Whorns haven't exactly struggled this year, but the offense has definitely taken a step back.  Today's Tech team may not have the offensive firepower they showed while Mike Leach was coaching them, but they aren't exactly slouches either.  And you had to know that the defense was going to improve when Tommy Tuberville was given the head coaching job.  I firmly believe that this is just a bridge job for TT until another SEC job opens up.  He's already been chastised by Dan Beebe and the Big XII offices for stating his opinion that the conference wouldn't survive with the current inequities.  I, and frankly most people agree with him.  Texas opens this game as a 3 point favorite.  The Red Raiders have beaten Texas before at home, and I believe they're going to do it again on Saturday.  I'm going with Tech to win straight up, 28-24.
I hope your team has good luck this weekend.  It sounds like it's going to be a gorgeous afternoon for tailgating in Columbia, and this morning (Friday) I'm taking a nice brisket out to smoke for my opening week. Don't forget that Sunday is national talk like a pirate day.  Try to do your best Mike Leach imitation and I'll see you next week.          
 

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1.03.01

Week 2 recap. Going far too well for me.

I'm one of these guys that isn't just willing to take success at face value.  I always think that if something looks too good to be true, then it probably is.  That's why after week 2, I'm really nervous about sitting here with a sparkling 22-2 record straight up.  Oh, I know that I'm barely above water when it comes to the point spread, but if I can just wind up even there, I consider it to be a success.  But before I get too full of myself, it's just week 2 and frankly, there haven't been too many opportunities for me to screw up yet.  Where I could really get in trouble is if I were making predictions for the ACC.  If college football isn't done with expansion yet, and I don't believe that it is, if I'm the AD at any Big XII north school, I'm campaigning for membership to their conference right now.  Anyway, for the week I was once again 11-1 straight up and a much more respectable 6-4 vs the spread.  For the year, I'm 22-2 and 10-9.

In Columbia, we may have seen some sign of a new legend being born as freshman Henry Josey rushed for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 7 carries.  After the problems in week 1, it was a breath of fresh air.  You have to remember it was against FCS competition and he's not likely to see the gaping holes he did this week, but speed is speed and this kid has it.  Hoping to see him get the ball in space against better competition.  There was no line in this game so I didn't have an opportunity to pad my statistics.  However, the 50-6 final was only 5 points off from my prediction of 55-6.   Next up will be a 6:00 pm matchup against San Diego State which also will come in a 2-0.  It will also mark my first trip to Columbia since the spring game.
In Waco, Robert Griffin threw for 297 yards as Baylor rolled over Buffalo 34-6.  My prediction was 37-17.  The Bears move to 2-0, but things get much tougher next week as they travel to Forth Worth to face top 5 TCU.

Speaking of getting tougher, it got a lot tougher for Dan Hawkins and the Colorado Buffalos Saturday as they traveled to Berkeley to meet up with future Pac 12 rival Cal.  The spread was 8 1/2 points and I didn't expect it to be that close as I had the Bears winning 37-17.  The final was Cal 52, Colorado 7.  Let's wratchet up the death watch for Coach Hawkins again.
Likewise for Iowa State, it was much different in week 2.  The Cyclones traveled cross state to meet Top 10 Iowa as a 13 1/2 point underdog.  This one was over by half time as the Hawkeyes jumped out to a 28-0 lead.  I'd predicted a 38-21 win for Iowa and the final was 35-7.  Next week ISU opens conference play a bit early as they meet K State at Arrowhead Stadium in Farmageddon 2.0.
I've had 2 losses straight up so far this year and both have involved my best buddies to the west, the kansas jayhawks.  After losing to FCS opponent North Dakota State ( who lost yesterday to another kansas favorite, Northern Iowa) there was just no chance they could compete with # 15 Georgia Tech, right?  Well, I along with most of America were wrong as the beaks held on for a 28-25 win over the Rambling Wreck.  I'd predicted a 41-14 Tech win in this one.  Next week the beaks travel to Hattiesburg to face 1-1 Southern Mississippi.  I have no idea what the line will be for this one or who will win.  We'll play it by ear and see what my gut tells me on Thursday.

In the other game this week that had no line, Terry Allen brought Missouri State to Manhattan to face Bill Snyder and the K State Wildcats.  It wasn't much of a contest, but a bit more interesting than I expected as I predicted a 48-13 Wildcat win.  The final was 48-24 K State.  As I mentioned earlier, the Cats play Iowa State next week at Arrowhead in one of the two conference games that will be played. 
In Lincoln, the Huskers opened as a 28 1/2 point favorite against the Idaho Vandals.  I stated that I wasn't convinced of the effectiveness of the hicks offense and nothing happened yesterday to change my mind.  I had corn nation winning but failing to cover 38-14.  The final score was 38-17 but this included 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns and scores off 2 long TD runs.  For the day Idaho threw 5 interceptions, while Nebraska had one picked off and only 111 yards passing.  Nebraska also had 8 fumbles, losing 3 of them.  No doubt they have some home run threats on the ground, but they're going to have to have some semblance of a passing attack once they enter Big XII play.  Next up is a trip to Washington, which doesn't seem nearly as imposing as it did before the season started.

Probably the most impressive win of the day came in Norman where the Sooners entered as 9 point favorites against Florida State, yet another ACC pretender.  I was fooled by OU's mediocre performance in week one and while I predicted the Sooners to win, I didn't expect them to cover.  I had OU in a close one, 28-21, but they rolled to an impressive 47-17 win as quarterback Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and 4 touchdown against what was considered to be a stout FSU defense.  Next week OU plays host to the Air Force Academy in one of the better schedules in Division 1 this year.
Another game I missed on the spread was played in Stillwater where the Cowboys rallied in the 2nd half to overtake Troy, 41-38.  I'd predicted an Okie Lite romp 35-14 to cover the 11 1/2 spread and in hindsight I should have known better.  Troy had beaten OSU as recently as 2007 and aren't intimidated by trips to BCS home fields.  Next week the Cowboys host Tulsa so frankly, we're still not going to know much about them for a few more weeks.

My 3rd failure in the south happened in Austin where Texas failed to cover a 29 point spread again former Missouri OC Dave Christensen and his Wyoming Cowboys by winning 34-7.  I had the Horns winning 41-10.  They continue to struggle somewhat in the post Colt McCoy era but will continue to win.  As I've said earlier, the Longhorn defense if big, fast and mean.  Conference season opens for Texas next week as they travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech, who were 52-17 winners against New Mexico Saturday night.  This game was a winner for me as I had picked the Red Raiders to win 48-10 and cover a 23 1/2 point spread.
Texas A&M was an 18 point favorite against Louisiana Tech and I'd predicted a 38-14 Aggie win to cover.  The final was 48-16 as they continue to put up impressive numbers against unimpressive opponents.  Things don't change next week as 0-1 Florida International travels to College Station.  I hope Mike Sherman isn't gaining too much weight from this cupcake diet he seems to be on this year.  We really aren't going to know much about them until Sept. 30th when they travel to Stillwater to face the Cowboys.
I hope your week goes well and I'll see you around Thursday or so with my picks for next week. 

   
   

 

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1.03.01

Week 2. The makings of an interesting year.

It wasn't just me.  A lot of guys apparently had some problems picking against the spread last week.  I've enjoyed a guy that goes by MizzouRah's selections over the years, and found him to be pretty good.  However, he went 5-8 vs the spread last week.  It's also been something of a transition year for folks like OU, Texas and Okie State.  Not trying to make excuses.  It will probably shake out by the time conference season rolls around, but right now I can't say I have many games I feel confident about this week as far as point spreads go.

One game I shouldn't have to worry about this week is going to be played Saturday night in Columbia, as my Tigers open the home season against might McNeese State.  I don't care for games against Division 2 teams such as this, but at least I can sort of, I said SORT OF, see some good that could come of it.  The Tigers seemed out of synch last week offensively, and this might be just what the doctor ordered.  It also offers a chance to get some backups some game experience that may be needed down the road.  But basically, you hope for no injuries and of course, God forbid someone goes out and pulls a North Dakota State on you.  I don't expect that and look for the Tigers to jump start the offense as they coast to a 55-6 win.  I won't be there to see it since I was fortunate enough to find someone to give my tickets to.  That's right, I said give.  The most interesting stat of the weekend may well be if the crowd tops 60,000.
The only other game without a line this week is in Manhattan, kansas, where the Wildcats, fresh off a 31-22 upset of UCLA host the Missouri State Bears, coached by former ku head coach, Terry Allen.  At least Allen is used to being abused by Bill Snyder from his years at the beak helm.  Look for this one to be over by halftime as the Cats get a chance to work in some PT for the backups.  Take K State 48-13.
Baylor is at home against Buffalo this week, who also opened the season with a win.  The schedule is actually pretty good for the Bears as it is a step up from last weeks opener, but still a contest they should win easily.  Baylor opens as a 16 1/2 point favorite in this one.  I think Buffalo plays close for a half but winds up falling 34-13.

Colorado, fresh off a convincing 24-3 win against cross state rival Colorado State, travels to Berkeley to face their future Pac 10 rival Cal.  The Golden Bears opened with a 52-3 win over UC Davis last week.  Cal opens as an 8 1/2 point favorite.  I think they do a little better than that and win 37-17 in front of 2 fan bases more known for their fondness of hemp than their passion for football.
In a game with slightly less sophisticated, and stoned fans; Iowa State travels to play the Hawkeyes in Iowa City.  Iowa opens as a 13 1/2 point favorite in a game the Cyclones have been able to steal occasionally the last few years.  I think this is close for a half but the 'Clones run out of gas and fall 38-21.

The only Big XII team to fall in week one was in Lawrence as the Turner Gill era opened with a thud in a 6-3 loss to North Dakota State.  It's only been one game, but it has to be a bit disconcerting to TG that Lew Perkins, the man who hired him suddenly retired one business day after the opening loss.   To compound the problem, coming to town is Georgia Tech who opened with a 41-10 win over lightly regarded South Carolina State.  The Yellow Jackets are going to run straight at the beaks, who appear to be woefully inadequate on both lines.  This one should be over shortly after the national anthem as the Jackets opened as only a 13 point favorite.  I expect it to be no where near that close.  Tech rolls to a 41-14 win.

In Lincoln, the Big Red fans weren't quite as pleased with their season opener against Western Kentucky as I'd expected.  I suppose the pre season hype has made them expect to be winning games 50-0 as they did for years under Tom Osbourne.  Yes, they won 49-10 but remember that the Hilltoppers went 0-12 last year and gave up an average of over 40 points per game.  This week the Vandals from Idaho come to town fresh off a 45-0 win over some team you've probably never heard of, the North Dakota Fighting Sioux.   The fighting Pelini's open as a 28 1/2 point favorite in this one.  While I think they win rather comfortably, I expect it to be more along the lines of 38-14.  This may ramp up the concern among America's weirdest fan base.

The game of the week, at least in my opinion happens in Norman, as the Sooners, who opened with a surprisingly difficult 31-24 win over Utah State face the Seminoles from Florida State, 59-6 winners over Samford.  I knew that the offense might take some time to gel, but I certainly didn't expect OU to give up 24 points last week.  Oklahoma opens as a 9 point favorite in this one, and I fully expect them to give FSU their undivided attention.  However, I think this one is going down to the wire.  I'm looking for OU to win, but fail to cover with the final in the 28-21 range.  This is going to be a great game and anytime Florida State plays it gives me the opportunity to include a photo of Jenn Sterger with the Florida State cowgirls.
In the other games of the week, Troy travels to Stillwater as an 11 1/2 point underdog to the Cowboys.  I expected Okie Light to take a step back this year, but you can't discount the 65-17 pasting they put on Washington State last week.  Troy slows them down a bit, but the Cowboys win and cover 35-14.
Wyoming travels to Austin this week to play the Longhorns, who were held to 34 points last week by Rice.  Wyoming had an emotional week as a player was killed in a car wreck.  This is another game I believe will be close for a while before Texas, who opens as a 29 point favorite wears down the Cowboys and wins 41-10.
Louisiana Tech travels to College Station as an 18 point dog to the Aggies.  I see this as the same formula as UT.  It could be close for a half but A&M wears them down in the 2nd half 38-14.
Texas Tech travels to New Mexico to play a Lobo team that fell 72-0 in week one to Oregon, in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated.  Tech opens as a 23 1/2 point favorite.  While I think New Mexico may well be the worst team in Division 1, this is a game where the Raiders can do a bit of experimenting.  I have Tech covering and winning easily, 48-10.
Good luck to your teams this week.  I'll enjoy watching OU/FSU Saturday and begin the countdown for my first trip to Columbia in a week as San Diego State comes to town.

   

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1.03.01

Week 1 recap. Why I don't gamble....

Well, after the first week of the season I got yet another reminder of why I don't wager on sports.  I don't think you could call it the week of the upsets in the Big XII, unless you happen to live in lawrence, kansas; but a lot of games that should have been laughers turned out to be pretty good contests.

In St Louis, the final (for now at least) installment of the Arch Rivalry ended pretty much as it has every other year, with my Tigers holding the trophy for the 6th consecutive time.  However, unlike previous years it wasn't slugfest, with the last team holding the ball having an excellent chance of winning.  This time Mizzou was led by a gambling, attacking defense that shut down the Illini in the 2nd half as the Tigers roared back from a 13-3 halftime deficit to win 23-13.  On the defensive side of the ball, Aldon Smith picked up where he left off last year as he dominated whoever was unfortunate enough to be across the line from him.  Carl Gettis was suffocating in coverage, and on offense, let the Wes Welker comparisons begin for sophomore wideout TJ Moe.  He caught 13 passes and took some hits that were nothing short of nasty.  The kid is going to be a good one.  Real good.

Also picking up where he left off last year was me.  I finished the week 11-1 straight up, but only 4-5 against the spread.  My only straight up loss for the week happened no where else but larry, where the fighting jayhawks lost to North Dakota State in thrilling fashion, 6-3.  The Turner Gill era opened with something of a thud and many of the beak faithful are already questioning the decision to run Mark Mangino out of town last year on an incredibly sturdy and large rail.

There could have been several more straight up upsets for the week however as Texas, beginning the post Colt McCoy era; Oklahoma, post Sam Bradford and Texas Tech sans the pirate all were involved in games that were much closer than expected.  Actually, about the only confortable win of the weekend that was expected was corn nations decisive 49-10 throttling of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who admittedly went 0-12 last year.  Make no mistake, even here corn nation and Bo Pelini aren't making reservations for the NC game quite yet.   Actually, the biggest wins of the week were probably Okie State who blasted Washington State 65-17 and K State and Mr Burns beating UCLA 31-22.
We've got a couple of pretty good games coming up this week and I'll start taking a look at them tomorrow.  Until then I'll just close with; NORTH DAKOTA STATE???  BWAHAHAHAHA

Week 1: I thought it would never arrive.

When I was a kid, it always felt like Christmas would never arrive.  You wondered what you were going to get.  You dropped hints, left catalogs open with your dream gift circled, and dreamed about it at night.  I don't feel that way about Christmas anymore but I still have that sense of excitement.  It's just reserved for that glorious weekend known as the beginning of the college football season.  I've sat through a long hot summer with the Royals once again falling out of the pennant race before Memorial Day, read and re-read articles about summer workouts and frankly spent entirely too much time worrying about whether Chris Freeman and Jimmy Hunt were going to show up on campus in time for fall camp.

So my Tigers open up the season this Saturday in the dome against Ron Zook and his fighting Illini.  This will complete the 4 game series between the 2 schools with the Zookster still looking for his first win.  As a matter of fact, Gary Pinkel is 5-0 vs Illinois during his career here.  The series ends after this game and unless Illinois pulls off the upset, I don't expect it to resume anytime soon.  After the 10 year winning streak they enjoyed in basketball prior to last season I wasn't in a big rush to see that series continued either.

Illinois is a young squad this year led by red shirt freshman quarterback Nathan Sheelshaase from Rockhurst in Kansas City.  The depth chart is just chock full of freshmen and sophomores who'll be starting their first game period, let alone a rowdy crowd of Missouri fans in the Edward Jones Dome.  Given the fact that Nathan really wasn't much of a passer in high school, I imagine that the Illini will attempt to establish the run game first and hope that Sheelhaase will be able to hit some passes off roll outs and options.  It should be a good test for a Missouri defense that was among the worst in the country last year.
So, I begin to try my luck at predictions for another year.  Last season I was a very respectable 93-33 straight up, but 62-59 when picking against the spread.  So with no further ado, here we go.

The Tigers open as a 12 point favorite against Illinois, which is down from 13 1/2 since the suspension of Derrick Washington.  Missouri has an established quarterback in Blaine Gabbert and Kendial Lawrence at running back but the backups are true freshmen.  The odds on favorite as his number one target this year, Jerrell Jackson is hurt and out for this game but Gabbert still has plenty of talented, if somewhat unproven receivers to throw to.  I think, that unless we see something along the lines of Brad Smith's first game, which coincidentally happened against Illinois, this one should be over by halftime.  Illinois has lost their entire defensive backfield for this game due to injuries.  A nice time for the Tigers to be breaking in new receivers.  Look for the Tigers to roll, 38-13.
2 days before the Arch Rivalry game, the Big XII season opens in Ames as last years surprise team, the Iowa State Cyclones open as a 3 1/2 point favorite over Northern Illinois.  Senior quarterback Austen Arnaud has spent like 12 years at ISU so I believe he'll graduate when I see it, and Paul Rhodes certainly had my vote as Big XII coach of the year last season.  The 'Clones return most of the offense although a large part of their defense graduated.  I don't see this being nearly as close as the oddsmakers and look for ISU to win 31-17.
Baylor opens at home against Sam Houston State, a not very good team even when playing other small college rummies.  Robert Griffin will be returning as quarterback for the Bears.  I expect some rust but not nearly enough to make a difference here.  Baylor rolls, 42-6.  No line here.

Things are changing in lawrence, kansas as the Turner Gill era begins.  The beaks open at home against North Dakota State in another game that was given no line.  I detest kansas but really haven't had any time to learn to hate Gill, who's always seems like a pretty good guy.  A lot of questions for the jayhawks this year and I don't think any of them will be answered this weekend, unless ND State manages to pull the upset.  kansas wins this one, 31-10. 
In what may or may not be the final season in the Big XII for the Colorado Buffalo's as they open on the road at Colorado State.  The Buffs come in as a 13 point favorite against their cross state rivals, and I really have no idea why.  Dan "Dead man walking" Hawkins may or may not have to win this year since I'm not at all sure there is enough money in their AD to cut anyone loose early.  I'm really tempted to take the Rams straight up, but will go ahead and pick Colorado to win 28-24 while failing to cover.

In Manhattan, Bill Snyder 2.0 opens the season against the Pac 10's UCLA.  It's incredibly weird seeing Coach Snyder open the non con against anyone with a pulse but give Snyder a few years to do his own scheduling and we'll be seeing plenty of directional schools, which considering we'll all be playing 9 conference games in a year will unfortunately the the rule rather than the exception.  The Bruins open as a 2 point favorite in this one but I think Mr Burns will have a surprise or 2 in store and the Cats pull a 24-21 upset.
Hick nation opens at home this year with Western Kentucky rolling into Lincoln as a 36 1/2 point underdog.  I've gone back and forth on this one, as I'm not positive that Nebraska is capable of putting up 37 points.  Nebraska is ranked as a pre-season top 10 team which I find ludicrous but I'm going to pick them to cover here, winning 42-6, with the defense providing them with some short fields if not touchdowns on turnovers.  We'll know something about the nubs on the 18th when they travel to Washington.
Oklahoma is the prohibitive favorite in the conference once again this year, following a disappointing season.  They open up as a 31 1/2 point favorite against outmanned Utah State.  The point spread isn't nearly big enough as "Big Game" Bob Stoops will have the Sooners smelling blood in a quest to return to the national championship game.  OU rolls 56-9.   

Like the 2008 Tigers, Oklahoma State was unable to live up to lofty expectations last year.  They open up at home against the Pac 10's Washington State.  The Cowboys will take a few steps back this year, but this is a good opening contest for them.  A very pedestrian team from a BCS conference.  Okie Light opens as a 14 1/2 point favorite.  I think this is pretty close and I'm taking the Cowboys in a close game they'll break open in the 4th quarter.  OSU 28-13.
It's rebuilding, or reloading time down in Austin.  The horns probably won't be making a return trip to the national championship game, but it's always smart money to bet on them playing after January 1st.  They open up on the road against perennially hapless Rice.  Texas has opened as a 29 point favorite.  They may not have the firepower they had last year with Colt McCoy running the show, but you just know the defense is going to be big, fast and mean.  Texas takes this one in a laugher, 49-13.

The sexy pick in the south this year is down south in College Station.  I still believe that Mike Sherman is a mediocre coach and at last report, they were planning to start 3 freshmen on their offensive line.  They also have some of the strangest rituals you could ever hope to see at a college football stadium.  I expect another 6 or 7 win season for them, but challenge Texas or OU for the south title?  I don't think so.  That being said, they'll probably look like world beats this week at home against Stephen F. Austin in a contest that has no line.  Look for the Aggies to put up some big numbers, winning 49-6 in my dog game of the week.
The week winds up on Sunday this week as SMU travels to Lubbock to take on the new look Red Raiders and coach Tommy Tubberville.  Tech opens as a 13 1/2 point favorite.  I expect them to have a few hiccups this year, but I don't expect it to be this week.  Give the points and look for the Tubberville era to open successfully as the Red Raiders win 38-13.

So now we have something to talk about for a few months.   I won't be making it out to see the game this week, and actually won't be at a home game until the 18th when San Diego State visits the Zou.  I'll be trying out some new seats this year.  Same section but about 40 rows lower.  God I hope I'm sitting next to someone that looks like Jenn. Have a great week and I hope your team finds success this year, unless you're going to be playing mine at some point this season.  We'll see how I did with my picks after the weekend.

The light at the end of the tunnel

And no, it's not a train coming this time.  We're now about a week away from my favorite time of the year.  It's almost football season.  Pretty soon we'll be reading endless articles about the new offensive strategy at Texas Tech now that they are without the pirate; why Nebraska will have a better defense even though they lost the best tackle in college football, and if Blaine Gabbert will be able to function without the security blanket known as Danario Alexander.   And I, for one am going to love every minute of it.  It's time for for uninformed fans such as myself to begin looking at depth charts, schedules and injury reports to make baseless predictions on how the season will play out.  In other words, I'm getting back into my element.
Today I'm going to talk about the southern division of the Big XII which is in it's final year of division play and offer a few useless predictions based on schedule and returning players.  Since I usually go from last to first, let's start out in Waco with the perennial last place team, the Baylor Bears.

The Bears will return quarterback Robert Griffin to the team as well as the purest cheerleaders in the conference.  I expected them to end their bowl drought last season but the injury to Griffin changed that.  The non con schedule should provide them with 3 wins, minus a Sept. 18th trip to TCU.  The challenge is finding 3 more wins during the conference season.  Home games against kansas, K State and Oklahoma State give them a reasonable chance and with a road trip to Colorado, I believe this is the year they earn their first bowl bid since 1994.
Oklahoma State had a great 2 year run, but now faces a major rebuilding job and now Mike Gundy gets a chance to prove he really is a man.  Their schedule is about as soft as it gets with the big name in the non con being Washington State which has won a whopping 3 games over the last few seasons.  They also get kansas, Kansas State and Baylor at home so they definitely have a punchers chance at making a bowl game.

In Lubbock, the Red Raiders enter the post Mike Leach era.  They return a lot of experience on the offensive side of the ball, where new coach Tommy Tuberville will have to find a way to utilize their talents in a manner he's really not used to.  Tommy is more of a defensive specialist and the Red Raiders don't return a lot of talent there.  I think Tuberville was a really good hire and the schedule breaks nicely for them.  I expect the Red Raiders to make a bowl game, but they aren't going to be world beaters this year.
At College Station, the Aggies of Texas A&M enter the season with high expectations and I'm really not sure why.  They went 6-7 last year and now, with an experienced quarterback their fans expect them to challenge for a division title since Texas and OU both lost a lot from last year.  Sorry Aggies, but I just don't see it.  The schedule is not terrible, but imo Mike Sherman has never shown himself to be a dominant coach.  I think the Aggies have a good chance at a bowl game, but it will be a disappointing season to a fan base that is 2nd only to Nebraska when it comes to overestimating their talent.

So let's get into the only 2 teams that really matter.  The University of Texas played in the national championship game last year, falling to Alabama.  They could argue, (with good reason) that the game could have ended differently had they not lost Colt McCoy early.  I personally watched them literally dismantle my Tigers in Columbia and they were nothing short of a machine.  They lost a lot of talent, but hell, it's Texas.  They always have talent.  I expect the division to come down to the Red River shootout, just like always.  The horns will make a nice bowl game but the season will fall a bit short of their expectations.  The fans will bitch, yada, yada, yada.  I hate Texas.
But if you think I hate Texas, believe me, I struggle writing about the cocksuckers from Norman.  "Big Game" Bob Stoops and the Sooners had something of a non OU season last year, and all world quarterback Sam Bradford will soon be making St. Louis Rams fans wishing they had drafted someone else with their first round draft choice but they are loaded again this year.  I see people picking them to go undefeated.  I'm not that sold on them, but I believe they return to the double digit win type of season they are used to this year, and a return to the NC game certainly isn't out of the question.

So, my early prediction for the south finish goes like this.  I expect OU to return to what they consider to be their rightful place as south champions.  I think the Longhorns will finish 2nd and both teams will make very good bowl games.  However, I think neither will make the national championship game as someone from the ACC or Big East will sneak into the championship game against whoever wins the SEC.  After that you could probably draw straws, but the final 4, in my opinion will probably be Texas Tech, A&M, Baylor and Okie Lite.  All 6 teams may make bowl games and once again we'll hear about how the north does nothing more than drag the conference down.       
If you're familiar with the term SSDD, then you know exactly what I'm talking about.  Next week we'll take a look at the north, or the "have nots" if you prefer.   Stay cool folks.

Dog days

It's mid to late July and summer is in full force.  This is the worst time of the year for me personally.  I'm primarily a football guy and there just anything going on with football for another couple of weeks.  The Royals have given us a couple of weeks of excitement but it appears that's going by the wayside also.  Actually, if you're a Missouri fan, about the biggest thing going on right now is whether basketball recruit Tony Mitchell will be approved by the NCAA clearing house and make it to Columbia for classes this fall.  There's been precious little news coming on the football front other than the stories coming from the Missouri recruiting sites, which have been like an oasis in the desert.  Oh, we've had a couple of things going on, such as college football realignment that ended like a fart in a hurricane and the ongoing ku ticket scandal and FBI investigation, which will probably last another 18 months at least.  But other than these it's been dry as hell.

But there is hope.  Football practice starts in about 2 weeks, and pretty soon we'll be discussing such things as can Blaine Gabbert improve on an excellent sophomore season when he threw for over 3,500 yards.  Also will be whether corn nation can continue their defensive dominance without the most dominant defensive tackle in the last 10 years and if Turner Gill's no profanity rule will carry on to the kansas fans.  What would the spirit of fair play and competition be without 30,000 drunken kansas buffoons urging their team to "rip his fucking head off" whenever the beaks kick off, which could happen an average of 3 times each and every game?

So bear with me a little longer.  Pretty soon I'll be gearing up and breaking down what I think/hope will happen this season and making wild assed predictions every week as it pertains to Big XII scores.  I'm far too old to be wishing my life away, so I'm going to enjoy the high temperatures as best I can.  And after all, it's not like summer doesn't have some things going for it.
In the next week or so, I'm going to take a look at what will be the last year of division play in the conference and offer my best guess on records and where the teams will finish.  Until then, stay cool and have a fabulous week.